油企並非油價危機最大受害者

If only oil-producing countries that got into trouble could merge, bring in fresh management, lay off citizens, cut costs and restructure their operations. At this point in the energy cycle, betting on a national merger wave similar to the corporate one that created supermajors such as ExxonMobil and BP in the late 1990s would be a good investment.

要是陷入困境的石油生產國可以合併、引入新的管理層、辭退公民，削減成本和重組業務就好了。在能源週期的這個時點，押注於國家合併潮將是非常棒的投資，它類似於在上世紀90年代末造就了埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)和英國石油公司(BP)等超級石油巨頭的那種企業併購潮。

Brazil could merge with Venezuela, helping to solve both the Petrobras scandal and the latter’s lurch toward default. The United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia could roll up Nigeria and Russia. Norway could acquire Scotland from the UK.

巴西可以與委內瑞拉合併，幫助解決巴西國家石油公司(Petrobras)醜聞以及委內瑞拉跌跌撞撞走向違約的問題。阿聯酋或者沙特阿拉伯可以與尼日利亞和俄羅斯合併。挪威可以向英國收購蘇格蘭。

But countries are not companies, for better or worse. Peaceful mergers are rare. Demergers and spin-offs tend to be more common, along with the occasional hostile takeover and Russian bear hug. Unlike shareholders, who tend to be a fairly dispassionate bunch, citizens have emotional ties.

但不管怎樣，國家不是公司。和平的合併是很罕見的。分拆和剝離往往更爲常見，偶爾會有敵意收購和俄羅斯的“熊抱”。與往往相當冷靜的股東不同，公民們對國家有着情感上的紐帶。

So here is another investment thesis: sell countries, buy companies. To be exact, short fragile oil exporters, particularly those suffering from corruption and the resource curse, and buy the oil majors. They both look painfully vulnerable to falling oil and gas prices (and in urgent need of this week’s bounce) but companies are better at adjusting to a change in circumstances.

因此這裏有另一種投資主題：賣出國家，買入公司。準確地說，做空脆弱的石油出口國，尤其是那些腐敗橫行和遭受“資源詛咒”的國家，買入石油巨頭公司的股票。它們看起來都深受原油和天然氣價格下跌之苦（亟需像本週這樣的反彈），但公司更擅長適應環境變化。

BP and BG, the UK oil and gas companies, both did so this week, applying the brakes sharply to capital investment plans and declaring that the turn in the commodity cycle is like that of 1986, when the price of crude oil dropped to $10 a barrel, having been stable at $30 for the previous three years. This is no time for waiting and hoping for an energy price recovery, they declared.

英國的BP和英國天然氣集團(BG)最近全都做出了調整，它們對資本投資計劃“急剎車”，並宣稱此次大宗商品週期的轉向類似於1986年，當時原油價格下跌至每桶10美元，而在此前三年油價一直穩定在每桶30美元的水平。它們表示，現在不是等待並預期能源價格復甦的時候。

Bob Dudley, BP’s chief executive, did a fine job of building a hopeful narrative out of a dire situation. “You have got to make the cheque book balance and if you are in denial, the longer that you don’t respond, the more difficulty you get into,” he told journalists. BP’s sale of $40bn of assets to cover the $43bn (so far) cost of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill looks prescient in hindsight.

BP首席執行官鮑勃•達德利(Bob Dudley)在構建一個有望擺脫可怕局面的敘事方面做得不錯。他向記者們表示：“你不得不平衡賬目，如果你迴避這一點，你拖的時間越長，陷入的麻煩就越深。”BP出售400億美元的資產，以覆蓋2010年墨西哥灣石油泄漏事件（迄今爲止）所導致的430億美元成本。事後來看，這種做法頗有先見之明。

So far, BP and BG are at the aggressive end of the responses to a fall in the price of Brent crude from more than $100 a barrel last June to about $56 on Wednesday, after the recent rally. Exxon cruises onward like a supertanker and Royal Dutch Shell has announced only modest cuts to capital expenditure this year, saying that it is “not overreacting”.

迄今爲止，BP和BG積極應對布倫特原油價格的下跌——在最近反彈之後，週三布倫特油價從去年6月的每桶100美元下跌至每桶56美元左右。埃克森美孚像一艘超級油輪一樣揚帆前進，而荷蘭皇家殼牌石油公司(Royal Dutch Shell)已經宣佈今年適度削減資本支出，該公司表示，“這不是反應過度”。

The other majors can change course any time they wish and will have a clear incentive to do so if energy prices remain weak and tankers full of oil start to be berthed in terminals as storage. As Mr Dudley emphasised, maintaining dividends to investment funds that depend on them is “the first priority” — developing fields in the Gulf of Mexico or off Brazil’s coast can wait.

其他石油巨頭可能隨時改弦易轍，而且如果能源價格繼續保持疲弱，裝滿原油的油輪開始像倉庫一樣停泊在終端，它們將有明顯的動力這麼做。正如達德利所強調的那樣，維持石油投資基金的股息是“第一要務”——可以以後再開發墨西哥灣或者巴西海岸外的油田。

Indeed, in terms of cash flow, oil companies can perform better in a downturn than in a boom, when everyone from governments to rig workers and oil services companies takes a slice of the action. When the oil price falls, they are in a better position to bargain.

實際上，就現金流來說，石油公司在低迷時期的表現好於景氣時期——在景氣時期，從政府到鑽井平臺和石油服務公司工人等所有人都要分得一杯羹。當油價下跌的時候，石油公司討價還價的能力更強。

“In an upcycle, everyone thinks the returns will be fantastic but it never quite happens,” says Martijn Rats, an energy analyst at Morgan Stanley. The oil industry, given half a chance, is inefficient and spendthrift. It loves to throw cash at new prospects, paying whatever it takes to pump oil, only for the proceeds to be taxed heavily by opportunistic governments.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的能源分析師馬丁•拉茨(Martijn Rats)表示：“在上升週期，所有人都認爲回報將非常豐厚，但這種情況從來沒有發生過。”石油行業只要稍有機會就會變得低效和揮霍無度。它喜歡向新的油田遠景構造投錢，不惜一切代價開採原油，最後獲得的收益還被機會主義的政府課以重稅。

Morgan Stanley estimates that it cost the majors $72 to locate, develop, produce and pay tax on each barrel in 2012-13 — more than the $69 they made in revenue. Over the previous decade, taxes rose, wages outpaced the private sector average by 35 per cent, and labour productivity in exploration halved: it took twice as many workers to produce each barrel of oil.

摩根士丹利估計，在2012年至2013年度，石油巨頭們花在選址、開發、生產和納稅上的成本是每噸72美元，比它們每桶原油獲得的69美元收入還要高。在過去十年裏，稅收增加，平均薪資增幅比私人行業高出35%，而勘探上的勞動生產率則下降一半：生產每桶原油所需的工人數量增長了一倍。

The more you waste, the easier it is to cut back. Not only can the majors reduce capital expenditure by halting projects, but they can demand better terms. Oil services companies are squeezed and governments are told that new fields will not open without tax breaks. The industry cuts off its stakeholders to protect its shareholders.

你浪費的越多，就越容易削減。石油巨頭不僅能通過暫停項目來削減資本支出，它們還可以要求更優惠的條款。石油服務公司受到擠壓，政府被告知，如果沒有稅收優惠，新的油田將不會啓動。石油行業通過削減其利益相關者的利益來保護股東的利益。

This capacity to reduce costs quickly is beyond most countries, even those with well-managed state oil producers and low-cost reserves. The fall in the oil prices depletes their tax receipts and damages economies that rely heavily on the energy industry. They cannot easily adjust by slashing public services and reducing the population.

大多數國家都不具備這種迅速削減成本的能力，甚至那些有着管理出色的國有石油生產商和低成本儲量的國家也不例外。油價下跌減少了它們的稅收收入，破壞了嚴重依賴能源行業的經濟。它們無法輕易地通過砍掉公共服務和減少人口來進行調整。

Meanwhile, just as oil exporters need to raise extra revenue, the oil majors cut back capital expenditure on new projects. Mr Dudley estimates that the price fall equates to a $1.6tn shift in value from oil-producing countries to oil-consuming countries. Exporters cannot escape the impact of that; they largely have to live with it.

與此同時，就在石油出口國需要提高額外收入之際，石油巨頭削減了新項目上的資本開支。達德利估計，油價下跌相當於石油生產國將價值1.6萬億美元的收入轉移至石油消費國。石油出口國無法逃避這種影響，它們在很大程度上不得不適應這種情況。

In countries plagued by corruption, with officials taking bribes from oil companies, the problem is even greater. Maria das Graças Foster, chief executive of Petrobras, has resigned over a scandal that has damaged Brazil’s economic growth. Moody’s estimates that Venezuela will face a $39bn funding gap on its external debt this year.

在腐敗橫行、官員向石油公司收受賄賂的國家，問題甚至更爲嚴重。巴西國家石油公司首席執行官瑪麗亞•格拉卡斯•福斯特(Maria das Gra as Foster)因陷入一場破壞巴西經濟增長的醜聞而被迫辭職。穆迪(Moody’s)估計，委內瑞拉今年償還外部債務將面臨390億美元的資金缺口。

In good times, companies and countries are both prone to the resource curse — there is enough cash to give to rent-seekers without a danger of it running out. It is too tempting to sacrifice efficiency for more oil. In bad times, companies repair the damage; countries are stuck with it.

在市場景氣時期，公司和國家全都容易遭受資源詛咒——它們有足夠的資金給尋租者，而沒有資金枯竭的風險。人們很容易犧牲效率來開採更多的石油。在市場低迷時期，公司修復受到的損害，而國家則只能苦苦撐着。