習奧峯會標誌中美經濟關係轉折

Friday's summit between the leaders of China and the U.S. marks a turning point in economic relations between the world's two largest economies: China growth is slowing sharply after a long boom while the U.S. economy is slowly regaining its vigor after a long slump.

中美領導人將於本週五舉行峯會，這是世界上兩個最大經濟體經濟關係的轉折點：中國經濟在保持長期高增長後急劇放緩，美國經濟則在長時間低迷後慢慢恢復活力。

'There has been an air of triumphalism on the part of China in recent meetings of Chinese and U.S. leaders,' said Mark Williams, a former British Treasury China hand who is now an analyst for Capital Economics in London. 'That has faded as China's recognition of the medium-term challenges it faces has increased.'

前英國財政部精通中國經濟的威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)說，近來中美領導人的會議上瀰漫着一種中國必勝的氣氛。現爲凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)駐倫敦分析師的威廉姆斯說，由於中國愈發意識到自己面臨着那些中期挑戰，這種氣氛隨之消退。

There have been other shifts in the two nations' economic relations: The appreciation of the yuan has moved the currency issue─long a central point of contention─to the back burner, and the recent offer by a Chinese company for the maker of Smithfield ham illustrates the larger role that cross-investment now plays in ties. Last week, Beijing suggested it may even join U.S.-led trade talks that it had long seen as an effort to contain China's rise.

中美兩國的經濟關係還有其它變化：人民幣升值使得長期處於爭議焦點的貨幣問題退到次要位置，而一家中國公司最近提出收購Smithfield火腿生產商則表明跨境投資如今在雙邊關係中發揮更大作用。上週，北京表示可能會加入由美國牽頭的貿易談判，中國一直認爲美國努力利用這些談判來遏制中國崛起。

The changing circumstances present an opportunity for presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping to refocus economic relations, say China specialists. The meeting could help set a new tone for economic relations that could let both countries expand investment and liberalize trade. Though specific commitments are likely to come from follow-up negotiating sessions, not the California summit.

研究中國問題的專家說，不斷變化的形勢讓美國總統奧巴馬(Barack Obama)和中國國家主席習近平有機會再次把注意力放到兩國的經濟關係上來。這次峯會或許有助於爲中美經濟關係定下新基調，讓兩國均能擴大投資，增進貿易自由化。不過具體承諾可能不會在加州峯會上做出，而是在後續談判中產生。

President Xi is looking for ways to reduce fears of Chinese investment in the U.S. as well as to convince his American host that China is serious about overhauls, say Chinese economists. President Obama wants to encourage Beijing to follow through on years of pledges by Chinese officials that the country will revamp its economy so it relies more on domestic spending than exports and investment, which would provide trade and investment opportunities for U.S. firms.

中國經濟學家說，習近平正在想辦法減少外界對中國在美投資的擔心，同時也想勸說奧巴馬相信，中國對改革的態度是嚴肅認真的。奧巴馬希望敦促北京履行中國官員多年來重整經濟的承諾，使其更加依賴國內支出而不是出口和投資，而這會爲美國公司提供貿易和投資機會。

'We see this [meeting] as an opportunity to get a better understanding of the kind of domestic policies and reforms' that Mr. Xi and other senior Chinese leaders are discussing at home, said a White House official.

白宮一位官員說：我們認爲這次峯會讓我們有機會進一步瞭解習近平和中國其他高級官員在中國國內所討論的該國政策和改革。

The most-recent time a Chinese president came to the U.S. for a summit, Hu Jintao's visit in January 2011, China's economy was humming: It grew at a 9.3% annual clip in the first quarter of that year on the strength of a powerful stimulus plan that helped the country continue to grow rapidly despite the global financial meltdown. China's prestige in Latin America and Africa was soaring on the strength of Chinese investment there.

中國國家主席上一次到訪美國出席峯會是在2011年1月，當時的中國國家主席是胡錦濤。那時中國經濟一派欣欣向榮的景象。憑藉一個強大的刺激計劃，中國經濟當年第一季度摺合成年率增長9.3%。儘管發生了全球金融危機，該計劃仍幫助中國經濟繼續快速增長。另外，中國憑藉對拉美和非洲的投資，極大地提高了自己在這兩個地區的聲望。

The U.S. economy, by contrast, grew just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2011, while the Federal Reserve was in the midst of its second round of the massive bond buying known as quantitative easing, which many developing nations saw as a way to drive down the dollar at their expense.

相比之下，美國經濟2011年第一季度僅增長了0.1%，美聯儲(Federal Reserve)當時正在進行第二輪名爲“定量寬鬆”的大規模購債行動。很多發展中國家認爲此舉是以損害它們的利益爲代價而壓低美元匯率。

Now, the situation has shifted. The U.S. grew 2.4% in the first quarter of 2013 as the economy has regained its footing. U.S. technological prowess is helping to revive manufacturing and make the country a powerful energy supplier through its exploitation of shale gas, two sectors that seemed down for the count not long ago.

如今，形勢發生了轉變。隨着美國經濟重新站穩腳跟，2013年第一季度美國經濟增長2.4%。美國的科技實力正在幫助重振製造業，並通過對頁岩氣的開發利用將美國打造成一個極具影響的能源供應國。製造業和能源這兩個行業不久前似乎還一蹶不振。

Meanwhile, China's leaders are still searching for a formula to stimulate innovation in science and industry, and grappling with how to tamp down credit and housing bubbles. According to Goldman Sachs GS -2.09% calculations, China's GDP slipped to 6.4% in the first quarter, when measured on an annualized basis─the gauge used by the U.S. and other wealthy nations─which would make it China's weakest quarter since the financial crisis.

與此同時，中國的領導人仍在尋找促進科技和工業創新的方法，並想方設法爲信貸和樓市泡沫降溫。據高盛(Goldman Sachs)的計算，今年第一季度中國GDP增速摺合成年率下滑至6.4%，這可能將是中國自金融危機以來經濟增長最疲弱的一個季度。摺合成年率的增速是美國和其他富裕國家通常使用的衡量標準。

'No one can forecast with confidence the future of the Chinese economy,' said Harvard economist Lawrence Summers, a former White House economic adviser and Treasury secretary. 'In retrospect, U.S. alarmism about Japanese growth peaked at about the same point that the Japanese competitive threat to the American economy peaked.'

哈佛大學經濟學家薩默斯(Lawrence Summers)說，沒有人有十足的把握預測中國經濟的未來。回想過去，美國對日本增長的不安達到頂點時正是日本競爭力對美國經濟構成的威脅達到頂點之際。薩默斯曾任白宮經濟顧問和美國財政部長。

China's new leaders, who took over the government reins in March, are drawing up plans to steer away from economic dependence on exports and investment in infrastructure and capital-intensive industries, areas that offer much less bang for the yuan than they once did. That planning presents an opportunity for Washington, as Beijing looks for fresh ideas. 'This is an opportune time for the U.S. to endorse and support China's reform agenda, which is clearly in the long-term interest of both countries,' says Cornell University China expert Eswar Prasad. 'What China would like to send back home would be images of Xi and Obama rolling up their shirt sleeves and getting down to business as equals.'

今年3月接掌政府大權的中國新一代領導人正在制定計劃，以便使中國在經濟上擺脫對出口、基礎設施投資和資金密集型產業的依賴。這些行業給人民幣帶來的好處大不如前。在北京尋找新想法之際，這一規劃對華盛頓來說是一個機會。康奈爾大學(Cornell University)中國問題專家普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)說，這是美國贊同並支持中國改革日程的一個良機，中國的改革日程顯然有利於兩國的長遠利益。中國希望向國內展示的將是習近平和奧巴馬挽起衣袖，以平等的姿態討論實質性問題的形象。

Others say that the U.S. has little leverage in Beijing, and that an endorsement of its overhauls could backfire if it seems as if President Xi is seen as kowtowing to Americans.

其他人說，北京方面並不認爲美國能有什麼影響力，如果美國支持中國的改革讓人覺得習近平好像是在向美國人“磕頭”似的，那麼可能會適得其反。

China's previous leaders also talked of changes but did little to turn the rhetoric into reality. Boosting social benefits for migrant workers, for instance, has long been seen as necessary to get them to settle in the cities with their families and open their wallets. But proposals to tap state-owned firms and rich regions for additional cash to pay for the benefits have gone nowhere because of resistance from those benefiting from the status quo.

中國以往的領導人也曾談到過改革，但幾乎從未付諸實施。比如，長期以來，人們一直認爲如果想讓外來務工人員舉家定居城市、打開腰包消費，就有必要提高外來務工人員的社會福利。但由於來自既得利益集團的阻力，從國有企業和富裕地區拿出更多資金爲外來務工人員提供福利的提案均沒了下文。

Moreover, China could settle on strategies that put U.S. companies at a disadvantage, for example by creating government-backed monopolies to reduce excess capacity in the steel, aluminum and other industries rather than by boosting private-sector competition in those areas. 'Reforms should be thoughtfully assessed in relation to U.S. interests,' said former U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky.

此外，中國可能決定實施令美國企業處於不利地位的戰略，比如創建政府支持的壟斷企業，以便減少鋼鐵、鋁業和其他行業的過剩產能，而不是增強私營部門在這些領域的競爭力。前美國貿易代表巴爾舍夫斯基(Charlene Barshefsky)說，應該對涉及到美國利益的改革進行縝密的評估。

What may make Beijing more receptive to U.S. initiatives, is China's search for new foundations for growth.

可能使北京更願意接受美國所提出方案的因素在於，中國正尋找新的經濟增長基礎。

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Messrs. Xi and Obama recently discussed economic and commercial issues during a phone conversation. 'China's now having a deep restructuring of its economy,' Mr. Hong said. 'The purpose is to promote efficient and fast growth of the economy.'

中國外交部發言人洪磊說，習近平和奧巴馬最近通電話就經濟和商業問題進行探討。他說：當前中國正在進行深入的經濟結構調整，我們的目標是促進經濟又好又快增長。

Recently, China signaled it might consider joining negotiations for a U.S.-led free-trade pact known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Beijing officials had previously dismissed as a part of an effort to line up countries against China. Xiao Geng, research director of the Fung Global Institute, a Hong Kong think tank, says that while China's participation remains a longshot, 'even talking about joining is progress.' That's because it indicates that China is looking to use international agreements as a way to prompt change domestically in the same way that joining the World Trade Organization in 2001 forced China to slash tariffs and open up wide swaths of the Chinese economy to foreign competition.

近來中國釋放信號，表示可能考慮加入美國主導的一個名爲“泛太平洋戰略經濟夥伴關係協議”(Trans-Pacific Partnership)的自由貿易協定談判。此前中國官員還對此不予理會，認爲這是集結有關國家反對中國之舉。香港智庫經綸國際經濟研究院(Fung Global Institute)研究總監肖耿說，雖然中國參與談判的可能性不大，但中國談到可能參加談判就算是一種進步。這是因爲它表明中國正考慮利用國際協議作爲一種促進國內變革的方式，就好像2001年加入世界貿易組織(WTO)迫使中國削減關稅、進一步打開中國經濟的大門以引入外國競爭者一樣。

And as growth in China slows, Chinese companies also have been looking abroad for acquisitions, including a recent bid by Shuanghui International Holdings Ltd. to acquire Smithfield Foods Inc. SFD +0.33% in the U.S.. Mr. Xiao, the Hong Kong economist, said for China to significantly boost its investment in the U.S. it needs to privatize the state-owned firms that make the bulk of the acquisitions. That is because the U.S. and other Western nations suspect state-owned firms make decisions based on Beijing's orders rather than commercial calculations.

隨着中國經濟增速放緩，中資企業也開始放眼海外進行收購，其中包括最近雙匯國際控股有限公司(Shuanghui International Holdings Ltd.)在美國收購Smithfield Foods Inc.。肖耿說，中國想要大幅提高在美投資，那麼中國需要將那些進行大量收購的國有企業私有化。這是因爲美國和其它西方國家懷疑中國國有企業是根據北京的指示而非商業考慮進行決策。

David Loevinger, a former U.S. Treasury official responsible for China, said the U.S. can use Beijing's investment drive to argue that China needs to act in a reciprocal manner by opening its market further to would-be U.S. buyers. 'US officials will likely contrast the openness of the U.S. to Chinese investment, as evidenced by the recent Smithfield deal, with the inability of foreign companies to buy market leaders in China,' said Mr. Loevinger who is now an analyst at investment firm TCW Group Inc.

美國財政部負責中國事務的前任官員洛文傑(David Loevinger)表示，美國可以利用北京這種想要投資的強烈願望提出條件，即中國應以互惠互利的方式行事，向潛在美國買家進一步開放市場。他說，美國官員可能會將美國對中國投資的開放程度（正如最近雙匯收購Smithfield一案所顯示的那樣）和外資企業無法在中國收購市場領頭企業的事實進行對比。洛文傑現爲投資機構TCW Group Inc.的分析師。

One perennial economic issue, the value of China's yuan, is likely to get muted attention at the talks. Since the January 2011 visit of President Hu, the yuan has appreciated 11.9% against the dollar when accounting for inflation, according to Brookings Institution researcher Karim Foda, including a 1.8% increase since the beginning of this year. While China's central bank has intervened to stop the yuan from climbing even further in recent months, tThe appreciation has come at a tough time for China, whose exporters are facing rising costs at home and greater competition from abroad. That gives Mr. Xi a powerful argument that the U.S. should ease its criticism of China's handling of its currency.

此次峯會上，人民幣匯率這一中美之間常年存在的經濟問題不太可能引發過多關注。布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)研究員福達(Karim Foda)的數據表明，自2011年1月前國家主席胡錦濤訪美以來，如將通脹因素考慮在內，人民幣兌美元匯率已累計升值11.9%，其中包括今年年初以來1.8%的升值幅度。近幾個月中國央行已經介入阻止人民幣進一步升值。眼下中國宏觀環境令人堪憂，出口企業正面臨國內成本上升和國外競爭加劇的雙重不利局面。這給習近平提供了一個強有力的論據，即美國應該緩和其對中國匯率政策的批評。

Further concessions on the yuan around the summit are unlikely. Letting the yuan trade freely now, as the U.S. has long sought, risks further appreciation, which could 'do a lot of damage to the Chinese economy,' said RBS economist Louis Kuijs, a former World Bank China economist.

本次峯會期間就人民幣問題做出進一步讓步不太可能。現在就讓人民幣匯率自由浮動（就像美國一直希望的那樣）可能令人民幣進一步升值。世界銀行(World Bank)前中國經濟學家、現蘇格蘭皇家銀行經濟學家高路易(Louis Kuijs)說，這可能會對中國經濟造成很大傷害。