普京如何給美國製造麻煩
There is no textbook on what to do.
沒有教科書教該怎麼做。
The US has a history of meddling in other countries’ politics during the cold war — and since.
美國在冷戰期間以及之後都干預過其他國家的政治。
But Russia’s thinly-disguised intrusions into the 2016 election is the first time the US has clearly been the object of such attention.
但如今俄羅斯對2016年美國大選幾乎毫不掩飾地加以干預，這還是美國首次明顯成爲此類關照的對象。
Moreover, the Russian bear is pushing at an open door.
而且，俄羅斯熊正在推的是一扇敞開的大門。
All Vladimir Putin needs to do to cause trouble is to sow doubt about the integrity of the US electoral process.
要製造麻煩，弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)只需讓人們對美國大選的公正性產生懷疑就可以了。
Large numbers of Americans already suspect the November result will be rigged.
許多美國人已經懷疑11月的大選結果將會受到操縱。
So does Donald Trump, who is the first US presidential nominee to invite a foreign power to leak material that would damage his opponent.
唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)也只需要這麼做，他是首位邀請外國勢力泄露會打擊對手的資料的美國總統候選人。
If ever US democracy was vulnerable to skulduggery that time would be now.
如果說美國民主什麼時候容易受到矇騙，那就是現在。
What chance does it have of succeeding? To some extent it already has.
俄羅斯成功的可能性有多大？在某種程度上來說，它已經成功了。
In a Bloomberg interview last week, Mr Putin offered a blatant non-denial denial that Russia carried out the recent hacking episodes.
在上週接受彭博(Bloomberg)採訪時，普京公然做出了不是否認的否認，即俄羅斯從事了最近的黑客攻擊活動。
To do that you need to have a finger on the pulse and understand the specifics of domestic political life in the US, he said with a knowing smile.
他帶着心照不宣的微笑說道：要做到這些，你需要緊貼脈搏，理解美國國內政治生活的細節。
I’m not sure that even our foreign ministry experts are sensitive enough.
我不太確定我們的外交部專家是否足夠敏感。
The Russian president might as well have winked at the camera.
普京也可能是對着攝像機開玩笑。
Nobody, from the cyber security firms looking into the hacking of US political outfits, to the FBI, which is investigating them, doubts Russian intelligence agencies were behind the breaches.
從研究美國政治機構遭黑客攻擊的網絡安全公司，到調查它們的美國聯邦調查局(FBI)，沒有人懷疑俄羅斯情報機構是幕後黑手。
Nor is there much question about motive.
動機方面也沒有多大問題。
The email trove hacked from the Democratic headquarters showing insider bias for Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders, was leaked on the eve of Mrs Clinton’s convention in July.
在今年7月希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)獲得民主黨總統候選人提名的大會前夕，竊自民主黨總部的電子郵件遭到泄露，這些郵件表明民主黨內部偏向希拉里，而不是伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)。
It inflamed Mr Sanders’ supporters, many of whom already thought Mrs Clinton had rigged the primaries.
這讓桑德斯的支持者怒火沖天，許多人已經認爲希拉里操縱了初選。
Last week Julian Assange, the holed up founder of WikiLeaks, which released that first batch of emails, promised there would be more to come before November.
上週，躲藏起來的維基解密(WikiLeaks)創始人朱利安•阿桑奇(Julian Assange)承諾，將會在今年11月前披露更多的郵件。之前是維基解密公佈了第一批郵件。
It is not a question of whether Russia leaks more data but when, says Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder of CrowdStrike, one of the largest US cyber security companies.
美國最大的網絡安全公司之一CrowdStrike的聯合創始人德米特里•阿爾佩羅維奇(Dmitri Alperovitch)表示：這不是俄羅斯是否會泄露更多數據的問題，而是何時泄露的問題。
Mr Assange, who is Russia’s preferred data dump, promises teasers in the next few days.
受俄羅斯青睞的數據發佈人阿桑奇承諾，將於今後幾天公佈一些先導郵件。
It would be easy — but probably wrong — to assume Mr Trump is working directly with Mr Putin to build mistrust in the November outcome.
很容易假定特朗普在和普京直接聯手讓人們懷疑11月的選舉結果，但這樣假定很可能是錯誤的。
The prima facie case looks strong.
乍看上去這種假定很有道理。
In his July acceptance speech, Mr Trump said: Big business, elite media and major donors are lining up behind the campaign of my opponent because they know she will keep our rigged system in place.
今年7月，特朗普在接受共和黨總統候選人提名時表示：大企業、精英媒體和主要捐贈者正排隊支持希拉里的競選，因爲他們知道，她將會保持我們受到操縱的體系。
That same week Trump officials purged language from the Republican platform which had urged support for the Ukrainian government against Russia.
就在同一周，特朗普方面的官員們抹除了共和黨綱領中敦促支持烏克蘭政府、反對俄羅斯的語句。
It came four years after Mitt Romney, the then Republican nominee, had described Russia as America’s number one geopolitical foe.
4年前，當時的共和黨總統候選人米特•羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)將俄羅斯稱爲美國的頭號地緣政治對手。
Nothing better captures Mr Trump’s hostile takeover of the Republican party than its 180-degree turn on Russia.
沒有什麼事情比共和黨在俄羅斯問題上180度大轉彎更能反映出特朗普對共和黨的敵意接管了。
Every hacking — most recently last week’s exfiltration of electoral rolls in Arizona and Illinois — appears to benefit Mr Trump.
每一次黑客攻擊——最近的一次是上週亞利桑那州和伊利諾伊州選民名冊外泄——似乎都有利於特朗普。
Anything that could implant doubt about Mrs Clinton’s likely victory in November is grist to his mill.
一切讓人們對希拉里11月可能的獲勝產生懷疑的事情，都爲特朗普利用。
Only he seems to question Russia’s role in the leaks. I think it’s probably unlikely.
似乎只有他在質疑俄羅斯在這些泄露事件中的角色。
Maybe the Democrats are putting that out, Mr Trump last week told Russian television (yes, you read that correctly).
特朗普上週向俄羅斯電視臺表示，我認爲這似乎不太可能，或許這是民主黨人搞出來的（是的，你沒有看錯）。
He also told the state-owned broadcaster that Mr Putin was far more of a leader than President Barack Obama.
他還向這家國有電視臺表示，普京比巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統更像一個領導人。
As I say, the surface evidence for Trump-Putin connivance looks plain.
如我所說，特朗普和普京聯手的表面證據看上去很明顯。
Yet Mr Putin is a far wilier operator than Mr Trump.
然而，普京比特朗普更爲老謀深算。
In his early career he trained in the active measures wing of the KGB, which specialised in political warfare.
普京政治生涯早期曾在克格勃(KGB)的積極策略部門接受過培訓。
Its goal was to generate disinformation that would disrupt other countries’ politics.
克格勃專攻政治鬥爭，其目標是製造謠言破壞其他國家的政治。
Mr Trump has given the Russian leader a golden chance to tarnish the US democratic model with the far more sophisticated tools now available.
特朗普爲普京提供了大好機會，讓他可以利用如今先進得多的工具抹黑美國的民主模式。
Mr Trump’s victory would not necessarily be in Mr Putin’s interests. Damaging the world’s faith in the US system is.
特朗普獲勝不一定符合普京的利益，但破壞世界對美國製度的信心符合他的利益。
Mr Putin is also a savvier tactician than Mrs Clinton.
普京在戰術方面也比希拉里精明。
When Mr Obama came to power in 2009, he and Mrs Clinton tried to create a split between Mr Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s then president. It failed.
當2009年奧巴馬上臺的時候，他和希拉里試圖離間普京和俄羅斯時任總統德米特里•梅德韋傑夫(Dmitry Medvedev)之間的關係，但沒有取得成功。
In 2011 Mrs Clinton backed Moscow demonstrators against Mr Putin’s allegedly rigged presidential election. This also backfired.
2011年，希拉里支持莫斯科遊行者抗議普京涉嫌操縱總統選舉，結果也適得其反。
Washington gave critical help to those supporting the 2014 overthrow of the pro-Russian government in Ukraine.
華盛頓爲那些在2014年支持推翻烏克蘭親俄羅斯政府的人士提供了關鍵的幫助。
Mr Putin responded by annexing Crimea.
普京的迴應是吞併了克里米亞。
What sweeter revenge than to meddle in a US election?
還有比干預美國大選更快樂的復仇嗎？
The bar is not that high.
而且這並沒有那麼難。
No vote rigging need occur — assuming it was even possible.
根本不需要操縱選舉——假設操縱是可能的。
All Mr Putin needs to do is contaminate the results in people’s minds.
普京需要做的只是讓人們對選舉結果產生懷疑。
Mr Trump and his media backers would do the rest.
特朗普及其媒體支持者會完成剩下的事。
Sound improbable? It should not.
聽起來不太可能？不應這樣想。
Mr Putin is a past master at setting cats among democratic pigeons.
普京過去就擅長讓民主國家雞犬不寧。
He knows well that propaganda works best when there is a receptive audience.
他深知，當聽衆願意相信時，宣傳最有效。
Forget America’s global reputation.
忘掉美國的全球聲譽吧。
Look at how it sees itself.
看看它是如何看待自己的。
With some justification, many Americans believe their political system has been captured by the rich and powerful.
許多美國人有一些理由地相信他們的政治體系被富人和權貴掌控。
It explains why so many are taking a desperate gamble on Mr Trump.
這解釋了爲什麼這麼多人孤注一擲地押注於特朗普。
Their horse will probably be beaten.
他們的押注可能失敗。
Mr Putin, on the other hand, is enjoying a lucrative day at the races.
而普京則在這場賭博中大賺特賺。
