Alphabet豪賭不休 華爾街捧場不止
A year after it surprised the world by announcing it would turn itself into tech holding company Alphabet, the company formerly known as Google is still working on its transformation.
在宣佈將轉型爲科技控股公司Alphabet這個震驚世人的消息一年之後，這家曾叫谷歌(Google)的公司如今仍在致力於轉型之事。
The job of reshuffling its portfolio of long-shot bets into a handful of more distinct, standalone divisions — and deciding which, if any, to shed — is incomplete. Nor have the financial foundations for such a restructuring been put in place.
重組業務的工作尚未完成，它要將那些看似不大可能實現的冒險賭注分別歸入幾個更清晰、更獨立的部門，並決定是否捨棄其中一些項目。這一套重組計劃的財務基礎也還沒有落實。
Founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, along with chairman Eric Schmidt and chief financial officer Ruth Porat, are still trying to work out the business models for some of the bets, and to set financial targets, according to people familiar with the process.
知情人士表示，兩位創始人拉里•佩奇(Larry Page)和謝爾蓋•布林(Sergey Brin)以及董事長艾裏克•施密特(Eric Schmidt)和首席財務官露絲•波拉特(Ruth Porat)仍在努力研究其中部分項目的商業模式，並制定財務目標。
It is also unclear if or when some of these projects, from driverless cars to a healthcare arm that is trying to slow ageing, will pay off, even though the oldest ones are nearly a decade old. And there is still no external indication of how Alphabet decides where to place its bets or how wide-ranging they will be.
此外也不清楚這些林林總總的項目中——從無人駕駛汽車到一個嘗試延緩衰老的醫療保健子公司——是否會有幾個項目能夠成功，如果有的話，什麼時候能看到，其中最早的項目至今已經快十年了。Alphabet也絲毫沒有流露出打算把賭注下在哪些地方、這些賭注將涉及多廣範圍的跡象。
Mr Page himself has been investing privately in start-ups outside the company, most conspicuously in trying to build flying cars — an idea that is too far-fetched even for the former Google, which always prided itself on taking on the biggest and riskiest ideas.
佩奇本人私下裏一直在投資外部的創業型企業，最引人注目的是一家嘗試製造飛行汽車的公司。改名之前的谷歌，歷來對自己敢於嘗試最宏偉、最冒險的想法感到自豪，但飛行汽車的構想即使對谷歌而言也顯得離譜。
But none of that has damped the mood among Alphabet’s investors. Wall Street has been more than willing to indulge Mr Page and Mr Brin; and the company’s shares have risen 45 per cent in the 13 months since the pair first showed signs of bringing tighter management disciplines to their sprawling set of “moonshot” projects.
所有這些都沒有影響Alphabet投資者的心情。華爾街一直非常願意縱容佩奇和布林；自從這兩人表現出將對那些龐雜的“moonshot”項目（指瘋狂的不太可能實現的計劃，譯者注）施加更嚴格管理紀律的跡象以來，該公司的股價在13個月裏上漲了45%。
“The history of the internet is littered with people who didn’t make bets like these and destroyed shareholder value,” said Mark Mahaney, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
“在互聯網歷史上，不下這樣的賭注、從而摧毀股東價值的人比比皆是，”加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)的分析師馬克•馬哈尼(Mark Mahaney)說。
Yahoo, AOL and eBay are among the companies from the first wave of the internet whose relevance has faded because they failed to think hard enough about their long-term future, he said.
他說，雅虎(Yahoo)、美國在線(AOL)和eBay就是第一波互聯網浪潮中，由於不認真思考長遠未來而逐漸變得無足輕重的公司。
Wall Street has another reason to indulge Google’s founders. Its core internet business has surged in recent quarters, unexpectedly boosting revenues and raising profit margins.
華爾街還有遷就谷歌創始人的另一個理由。該公司的核心互聯網業務在近幾個季度以來大幅增長，出人意料地提振了營收，提高了利潤率。
Insiders say this is partly because of a fresh focus in the Google division under its new head, Sundar Pichai. Leading Google executives are no longer distracted by Mr Page’s personal interests — bordering on obsessions — in long-range ventures that have little connection with the internet advertising business that still generates more than 99 per cent of the company’s revenues.
知情人表示，這部分是因爲谷歌部門在新老闆桑德爾•皮查伊(Sundar Pichai)執掌下有了新的重心，谷歌主要高管不再爲佩奇近乎執念的個人興趣而分心，他那些遠大冒險計劃與至今仍爲公司創造99%以上收入的互聯網廣告業務毫無關聯。
Whatever the reason, Alphabet’s money-machine has been re-energised. In the second quarter of this year, Google overtook its old rival Microsoft in revenues for the first time, and Wall Street expects its revenues to surge past $100bn for the first time next year.
無論出於何種原因，Alphabet的賺錢機器已恢復了動力。今年第二季度，谷歌第一次在營收上超越了老對手微軟(Microsoft)，而華爾街預計明年其營收將首次突破1000億美元。
None of this, however, guarantees that its search for a long-term future beyond internet advertising will yield results — or that the roughly 3 per cent of revenues spent on what it calls its “other bets” will not be money poured down the drain.
然而，這些並不能保證Alphabet在互聯網廣告之外探索長遠未來的行動就會有結果，也不能保證投入到“其他賭注”(other bets)上約佔營收3%的資金不會打水漂。
“The history of these central R&D ventures is not good,” Michael Cusumano, a professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says of the research labs some of the biggest tech companies have run in the past.
“這些核心研發(R&D)冒險活動的歷史並不理想，”麻省理工學院(MIT)教授邁克爾•庫蘇馬諾(Michael Cusumano)在談起大型科技企業過去設立的一些研究實驗室時表示。
The lack of a precedent for the type of tech conglomerate Google’s founders are trying to create, and the vagueness of their aims for Alphabet, could add to the risks of failure.
谷歌創始人試圖打造的那種類型的科技企業集團並無先例可循，加上他們對於Alphabet的目標也很模糊，可能增加失敗的風險。
Mr Page has held up Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway as a model, though Mr Cusumano says “comparisons to Berkshire Hathaway are totally inappropriate. It’s not an investment fund — that’s not what Google is.” To be worth Alphabet’s attention, its non-core activities must at some point relate to its original business, he adds.
佩奇把沃倫•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的伯克希爾哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)視爲榜樣，但庫蘇馬諾說，“與伯克希爾哈撒韋對比根本就不合適。它不是投資基金，那並非谷歌的性質。”他接着說，值得Alphabet注意的是，它的非核心業務需要在某個時候與其老本行產生聯繫。
A year into the experiment, there have been signs that the soaring costs at Alphabet’s non-core businesses have at least been brought under control, though Ms Porat has warned against reading too much into short-term variations in expenses.
試驗了一年之後，已有跡象表明，Alphabet非核心業務的成本大增局面起碼已得到了控制，不過波拉特警告不要對費用的短期變化做太多解讀。
Inside the businesses, Ms Porat’s more rigorous approach to making investment decisions has had an effect. A mid-ranking employee at one of the divisions credits her with bringing greater certainty to the internal investment process, even if part of her job is to limit some of the spending.
在公司內部，波拉特對投資決策實行更嚴格的方法已產生了一定效果。一個部門的中層管理者稱讚她爲內部投資流程帶來了更大的確定性，儘管她的一部分工作是限制支出。
But while the new Alphabet structure has brought more financial control, it is still unclear how the group’s divisions will be ultimately be managed as they become more freestanding. Though there are parallels between Alphabet’s investment approach and the Silicon Valley start-up ecosystem, it remains a corporate conglomerate.
但是，儘管Alphabet的新架構已帶來更多的財務控制，由於集團旗下各個部門變得更加獨立，目前仍不清楚其最終將對各部門採取何種管理方式。雖然Alphabet的投資手法跟硅谷創業型企業的生態系統有些類似，但它仍是一家綜合性企業集團。
The individual ventures do not have their own boards, and Alphabet has not introduced any equity arrangements to tie employees’ rewards to the success of their units — the kind of incentives that are a big attraction in joining a start-up. The company has relied instead on big cash bonuses, paid out when the newer businesses hit significant milestones, though that may not keep talent in the long term. The driverless car division has shed some of its top engineers in recent months after making big payments like these, according to a person familiar with the business.
單個冒險項目沒有自己的董事會，Alphabet也沒有引入任何股權安排、把員工的報酬與他們所在部門的成功掛鉤——在吸引人才加入初創企業方面，這樣的股權機制是一種具有很大吸引力的激勵手段。相反，Alphabet依賴高額獎金，在新業務達到重要里程碑時發放，不過，這或許不利於在長期內留住人才。知情人士表示，無人駕駛汽車部門在發放大手筆獎金之後，近幾個月來流失了一些頂級工程師。
“This isn’t like being in a start-up — it’s like being in a family business, with mercurial venture-capital backers,” says an employee at one of the businesses.
“這不像是在一家創業企業工作，倒像在家族企業，有反覆無常的風險資本投資者，”一家Alphabet旗下企業的員工表示。
In some cases, the more rigorous analysis of Alphabet’s disparate operations has also exposed the need for different business approaches. The company’s high-speed broadband division, for example, was set up to provide more competition to rival networking companies, and to prod them to invest faster in their own fibre-optic systems, something that would help the core Google internet business.
有些情況下，對Alphabet旗下各項迥然不同的業務進行更嚴謹的分析表明，該公司有必要採取不同的業務模式。比如，該公司成立高速寬帶部門，是爲了給其他網絡設備公司造成更多競爭，促使它們加快投資建設自己的光纖系統，這有利於其核心的谷歌互聯網業務。
Now, as a freestanding division, the broadband business is searching for ways to reduce its hunger for capital and find new, cheaper technologies than fibre that will make it a profitable business in its own right — a hunt highlighted by its acquisition in June of the wireless internet access company WebPass.
如今，作爲一個獨立的部門，該寬帶業務開始想方設法減輕自己對於資金的飢渴，並尋找比光纖更低成本的新技術，以期成爲一項獨立的盈利業務——今年6月收購無線互聯網接入公司WebPass，就凸顯了其對技術的追逐。
As the search for sustainable business models continues, Alphabet has held back from making any promises about when bets such as this will pay off. That makes it very different from Facebook, which has been far clearer in outlining its long-range plans, says Mr Mahaney. The social networking company has grouped its bets into ones it hopes will pay off in three, five and 10 years’ time.
在繼續尋找可持續業務模式的同時，Alphabet並未就諸如此類的押注何時可能成功做出任何承諾。馬哈尼說，這一點跟Facebook完全不同，後者在概述長期計劃時要清晰得多。這家社交網絡公司將其賭注分成若干組，希望分別在3年內、5年內和10年內取得成功。
Speaking recently at the first shareholder meeting since its formation, Mr Schmidt gave the first indication that Alphabet is also trying to come up with a more rigorous timetable. It should at least be clear within three years which of the portfolio it refers to as its “other bets” will be worth pursuing, he said.
不久前在Alphabet組建後的首屆股東大會上發言時，施密特首次暗示，Alphabet也在嘗試拿出一份更嚴格的時間表。他說，Alphabet至少要明確，在其統稱爲“其他賭注”的所有項目中，在3年時間跨度內哪些項目將是值得推行的。
But even if the long-term outlines and goals for Alphabet remain unclear, Wall Street is more than happy to stay patient. And if shareholders ever start to feel restless, there is always the huge profitability of the old Google business to reassure them.
但是，即便Alphabet的長期發展框架和目標仍不清晰，華爾街也非常樂於保持耐心。如果股東什麼時候開始感到不安，舊有谷歌業務的巨大盈利也總會讓他們放下心來。
