全球數字廣告業的雙頭壟斷
Unsuspecting visitors to the French Riviera this week might have been surprised to discover that the advertising industry, which gathers here every year for the Cannes Lions festival, is facing a big upheaval.
上個月來到法國裏維耶拉的毫不知情的參觀者可能會吃驚地發現，廣告業正面臨巨大變革。廣告業人士每年齊聚於此參加戛納國際創意節(Cannes Lions)。
The rosé was flowing, the music at industry beach parties was thumping and A-List talent that included Channing Tatum, Gwyneth Paltrow and Will Smith were on hand, dispensing wisdom on stage to the thousands of executives who came from all over the world to this celebration of advertising creativity.
玫瑰紅葡萄酒斟滿酒杯，海灘聚會的音樂聲低沉而有力，查寧•塔圖姆(Channing Tatum)、格溫妮絲•帕特洛(Gwyneth Paltrow)和威爾•史密斯(Will Smith)等重要嘉賓閃亮登場，他們在臺上與來自世界各地、參加此次廣告創意表彰大會的數千名高管分享智慧。
But away from the parties and awards, advertising agencies, media buyers and the holding companies that own them are slowly waking up to a future that has been upended and reshaped by two technology companies.
然而，除了聚會和頒獎，廣告代理商、媒體廣告買家和這些公司的持股公司慢慢意識到，廣告的未來已被兩家科技公司顛覆和重塑。
The bulk of spending by brands on digital advertising is going to Google and Facebook: combined, they accounted for 75 per cent of all new online ad spending in 2015, according to the Internet Trends report published this month by Mary Meeker of Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, the US venture capital fund. In the US, 85 cents of every new dollar spent on digital went to the two companies in the first quarter of 2016.
各個品牌在數字廣告上的大部分支出流向了谷歌(Google)和Facebook：根據美國風投基金凱鵬華盈(Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers)的瑪麗•米克(Mary Meeker) 6月發佈的《互聯網趨勢》(Internet Trends)報告，兩家公司合計佔2015年互聯網廣告新支出總額的75%。2016年第一季度，美國新數字廣告支出的85%流向了這兩家公司。
This matters because digital is fast becoming advertising’s biggest source of revenue. It will eclipse television in the US next year for the first time, according to eMarketer, the research firm, with the lion’s share likely to go to the digital duopoly of Facebook and Google. Executives in Cannes this week put a brave face on what this might mean for their industry but the consequences of two companies becoming the gatekeepers for most digital advertising are becoming profound.
這至關重要，因爲數字廣告正迅速成爲廣告業最大收入來源。研究機構eMarketer稱，明年它將在美國首次超過電視廣告，最大的份額可能將流向數字領域的雙寡頭Facebook和谷歌。對於這可能對廣告行業意味着什麼，參加上月戛納國際創意節的公司高管們一副滿不在乎的樣子，但兩家公司成爲多數數字廣告的守門人的影響正變得深遠起來。
Google and Facebook compete in some areas such as digital video advertising but are present “across every part of the food chain”, according to one senior ad executive. Google has its search business and YouTube while Facebook has its news feed, Instagram and other services. This seismic shift to a digital and mobile ad landscape effectively controlled by two companies has wide repercussions for agencies, media buyers, publishers and the brands that want to sell more products.
據一位廣告業高管稱，谷歌和Facebook在數字視頻廣告等一些領域存在競爭，但二者佔據了“這個食物鏈的每一環”。谷歌擁有搜索業務和YouTube，而Facebook擁有新聞推送、Instagram和其他服務。廣告向由這兩家公司有效控制的數字和移動廣告版圖的重大轉移，對於廣告代理商、媒體廣告買家、出版商和希望銷售更多產品的品牌有着廣泛影響。
Advertisers like the targeting they get with Facebook and the trove of data it has on its 1.6bn users, just as they like the efficiency of Google search. But they are worried about a concentration of market power in two companies that not only own the playing field but are increasingly able to set the rules of the game as well.
廣告商喜歡Facebook提供的針對性廣告及其有關16億用戶的海量數據，他們也喜歡高效的谷歌搜索。但他們對於市場力量集中在這兩家公司感到擔憂，它們不僅擁有競技場，而且還越來越有能力設定遊戲規則。
Facebook and Google “are hegemons” that could soon be taking campaigns away from television, says Brian Wieser, analyst with Pivotal Research. Paul Frampton, chief executive of Havas Media Group UK, says they are “black boxes” that have too much power. “They don’t give agencies or the brands access to their algorithms and the data being mined are for Google and Facebook — and not for the brand.”
Pivotal Research分析師布萊恩•威澤(Brian Wieser)表示，Facebook和谷歌是“霸王”，它們可能很快會將廣告從電視手中奪走。Havas Media Group UK首席執行官保羅•弗蘭普頓(Paul Frampton)表示，它們是權力過大的“暗箱”。“他們不讓廣告代理商或者品牌接觸他們的算法，他們的數據挖掘是爲了谷歌和Facebook自己，而非品牌。”
“They are hegemons,” says Mr Wieser. “Right now they are not competing with television but they are competing with Yahoo and AOL. It’s plausible that with every passing year [Facebook and Google] and television advertising will become part of the same market.”
“他們是霸王，”威澤表示，“目前，它們沒有與電視競爭，但它們正與雅虎(Yahoo)和美國在線(AOL)競爭。假以時日，（Facebook和谷歌）可能和電視廣告同屬一個市場。”
The two companies have unwittingly had an impact on print advertising revenues, which have tumbled in the UK and the US in the past six months. The Financial Times reported this week that UK newspaper executives have had discussions about pooling resources to form a single ad sales operation, partly because so much print spending has shifted to Facebook and Google.
這兩家公司無意中對平面廣告收入也產生了影響，過去6個月，英國和美國的平面廣告收入大幅下滑。英國《金融時報》上月報道，英國報業高管討論了集中資源組建單一廣告銷售業務，這在一定程度上是因爲很多平面廣告支出轉而流向了Facebook和谷歌。
There have been similar discussions in Cannes with the aim of creating a “third block” of television advertising inventory to rival the might of Facebook and Google. Talks are at a very early stage but have centred on owners of television networks pooling inventory, according to people who have been briefed on the discussions.
戛納也出現了類似的討論，目的是創建電視廣告庫存的“第三區”，以抗衡Facebook和谷歌的實力。據知情人士稱，討論處於非常初期的階段，主要圍繞電視網絡所有者集中廣告庫存。
Sir Martin Sorrell, chief executive of WPP, the world’s largest marketing and communications group, says one possible third block of inventory could be formed by the acquisition of Yahoo by AOL, the dial-up pioneer owned by Verizon. An alternative, he says, would be the proposed alliance between traditional media owners such as 21st Century Fox, News Corp, Comcast, which owns NBCUniversal, and other groups. The idea had come from Group M, the media buying agency that is part of WPP. “It’s a thought,” he adds.
全球最大營銷和傳播集團WPP首席執行官蘇銘天爵士(Sir Martin Sorrell)表示，Verizon旗下撥號上網先驅美國在線併購雅虎將可能創建廣告庫存第三區。他表示，另一種選擇是21世紀福克斯(21st Century Fox)、新聞集團(News Corp)、康卡斯特（Comcast，是NBC環球(NBC Universal)的所有者）等傳統媒體集團和其他集團之間擬議的聯盟。這個想法來自WPP旗下媒介投資管理機構羣邑(Group M)。他補充稱：“這是一種想法。”
Dialogue with consumers
與消費者對話
Advertising executives used to have a simpler life. They won a client’s business, created a campaign and bought media time on television or space in print magazines and newspapers.
廣告業高管曾經的生活較爲簡單。他們贏得一筆客戶生意，做出一個廣告創意，在電視上購買媒體時間或在紙質雜誌和報紙上購買版面。
“People didn’t know how good the old days were until they were over,” says one agency chief executive. “You could go away for two and a half months to ponder what the campaign should be and then go to some exotic place to shoot the commercial.”
“在這種日子結束之前，人們不知道過去的日子有多美好，”一家廣告代理商的首席執行官表示，“你可以用兩個半月的時間構思廣告，然後去一些風情奇異的地方拍攝廣告片。”
Before the internet brands could “bark at the audience”, he adds: the “conversations with consumers” that brand managers talk about were decidedly one-way. Agencies now talk about brands connecting directly with consumers, creating what Keith Weed, chief marketing officer of Unilever, calls a “path to purchase”.
在互聯網出現之前，品牌可以“對着觀衆大叫”，他補充稱：品牌經理所說的“與消費者對話”無疑是單向的。廣告代理商現在討論的是品牌直接與消費者對接、打造聯合利華(Unilever)首席營銷官基思•威德(Keith Weed)所稱的“採購之路”。
On Facebook, this might be an ad in its news feed for a car that involves the viewer entering personal details or booking a test drive — anything that moves the viewer closer to a purchasing decision.
在Facebook上，這可能是新聞推送中的一則汽車廣告，邀請閱覽者填寫個人信息或者預定試駕，竭力讓閱覽者更接近作出購買決定。
Unilever is the world’s second-largest advertiser, spending several billion pounds a year and owning brands that range from Dove and PG Tips to Marmite and Persil. “We used to show a great ad on a Thursday on television and when you were walking down the aisle at Tesco on a Saturday morning you would see Persil and put it in your shopping trolley,” he says.
聯合利華是全球第二大廣告主，每年耗資幾十億英鎊，擁有多芬(Dove)、PG Tips、Marmite和寶絲(Persil)等衆多品牌。他表示：“我們過去會在週四在電視上播出精彩的廣告，然後當你在週六早晨漫步在樂購(Tesco)超市的過道上時，會看到寶絲，然後把它放到你的購物車裏。”
The company and its peers are trying to use data to target their campaigns better, aware that, in an age of digital video recorders and on-demand viewing, fewer people tune in to watch live television at a set time. It recently ran a “programmatic creative” campaign in Brazil for Axe, the men’s deodorant known as Lynx in the UK, which automatically drew from 100,000 vignettes to create a short commercial individually tailored to the viewers watching. The ads ran on desktops and mobiles and were compiled automatically using data stored on each user’s device.
該公司及其同行現在正嘗試利用數據提高廣告的針對性，他們意識到，在這個數字視頻錄像機和視頻點播的時代，在固定時間觀看電視直播的觀衆變少了。該公司最近在巴西爲男士香水Axe（在英國的名字是凌仕(Lynx)）推出了“程序化創意”廣告，它會自動從10萬個畫面中選取畫面，爲觀看者製作個性化的廣告短片。這些廣告在臺式機和移動設備上播放，利用存儲在每位用戶設備中的數據自動編制。
“Technology gives you the ability to be much more specific to an individual,” says Mr Weed.
威德表示：“科技讓你能夠更具體地針對個人。”
Facebook holds a trove of data on its users, including their interests, location and other variables, which partly explains why so many advertisers are flocking to the platform. “Facebook believes the most important thing is identity in ensuring ad effectiveness,” says Ben Winkler, chief digital officer of OMD, a media agency that is part of Omnicom. “That is key to performance because that’s their strength . . . they know who you are and so much about you.”
Facebook擁有大量用戶數據，包括用戶的興趣、地理位置和其他細節，這部分解釋了爲何有這麼多廣告主涌向該平臺。“Facebook認爲，對於確保廣告有效性，最重要的是用戶身份，”宏盟集團(Omnicom)旗下媒體機構OMD的首席數字官本•溫克勒(Ben Winkler)表示，“這是效果的關鍵，因爲這是他們的優勢……他們知道你是誰，瞭解你的很多事情。”
Google’s proposition is different, he adds, with most of its business coming from online search, which it dominates around the world. “Google believes identity is secondary to intent. What’s important is what you want right now because advertising products and services fulfils a want or need.” They are different approaches but complementary, Mr Winkler says. “The reality is they are both right, which is why we use both.”
他補充稱，谷歌的觀點不同，谷歌主宰着全球的在線搜索業務，其多數業務來自在線搜索。“谷歌認爲，身份次於意圖。重要的是你現在想要什麼，因爲做廣告的產品和服務是用來滿足願望或需求的。”溫克勒表示，這是兩種不同但互補的方式。“事實是這兩種方式都是正確的，這就是爲什麼我們兩者都用。”
There are other consequences to the advertising industry’s move towards more data-driven targeted ads — namely that the creative aspect requires more work. “The creative process in advertising is being blown up,” says Jim Stengel, the former global marketing officer of Procter & Gamble, the world’s biggest advertiser.
廣告業轉向更由數據驅動的針對性廣告還有其他影響——創意部分需要投入更多工作。全球最大廣告主寶潔(Procter & Gamble)前全球營銷官吉姆•斯滕格爾(Jim Stengel)表示：“廣告中的創意過程正在擴大。”
“It’s definitely more work than it used to be,” says Mr Weed. “But we have always targeted. The reason why we have a portfolio of ice-creams is because we have targeted different groups of people. We’ve always done it and now we have a greater ability to do it.”
“現在的工作肯定多於過去，”威德表示，“但我們一直是有針對性的。我們之所以有一系列冰淇淋是因爲我們瞄準不同的人羣。我們一直在這樣做，現在我們有更大的能力這樣做。”
Even with automated processes, assembling the component pieces of a campaign aimed at multiple different demographics is going to be more complex than a single television commercial or print ad.
即便有自動化程序，與單一的電視廣告或平面廣告相比，把針對多個不同用戶羣的廣告的各個部分組合在一起將更爲複雜。
“If we are going to go beyond the mass market of yesterday to mass customisation, that’s going to be a challenge in content creation,” says Mr Weed. However, he has little doubt that mass customisation is the better approach. “It has to be better for the future of brands.”
威德表示：“如果我們要超越過去的大衆市場，轉向大規模定製，內容創作將面臨挑戰。”然而，他毫不懷疑大規模定製是更好的方式。“這一定會更有利於品牌的未來。”
Breaking the chain
掙脫枷鎖
Opinion is divided over whether the data-driven services offered by Facebook and Google will hit the agencies that used to provide that information to their clients. They own their platforms, they can set the price and, increasingly, they can offer other useful services.
關於Facebook和谷歌提供的數據服務是否將衝擊過去向客戶提供這種信息的機構，人們的意見不一。它們擁有平臺，它們可以制定價格，而且它們越來越有能力提供其他有用的服務。
“The agencies are the ones who are going to be cut out of the equation the most,” says one senior ad executive. “If buying [a campaign] is as easy as going to Facebook and Google and you can target a particular demographic, then why do I need a media buying agency?”
“廣告代理機構是最有可能被淘汰的，”一位資深廣告高管表示，“如果購買（廣告）像訪問Facebook和谷歌那樣容易，而且你可以瞄準特定人羣的話，我們爲什麼還需要媒體廣告代理機構呢？”
Media buyers argue that even with Facebook and Google’s dominant position the advertising landscape is complex so brands need all the help they can get,” says one. “Marketing managers are leaning on their agencies more than ever,” says one agency executive.
媒體廣告買家指出，即便Facebook和谷歌佔據主導地位，廣告業的版圖仍非常複雜，因此品牌需要藉助一切可能獲得的幫助。一位廣告代理機構的高管表示：“營銷經理比任何時候都更依賴廣告代理機構了。”
There are other digital options beyond Facebook and Google. Snapchat, the messaging app, is becoming an alternative option for advertisers and had a big presence in Cannes this week.
除了Facebook和谷歌，還有其他數字選擇。短信應用Snapchat正成爲廣告主的另一種選擇，上月Snapchat在戛納曾大展身手。
“It’s beginning to challenge Facebook and Google, particularly in the US,” says Mr Frampton. Having more distribution options is better for clients and it leads to better creative work, he says. “Freedom of choice to work with multiple partners leads to smarter thinking and better ideas.”
弗蘭普頓表示：“它正開始挑戰Facebook和谷歌，特別是在美國。”他表示，擁有更多的廣告選擇更有利於客戶，而且它會帶來更出色的創意。“能夠自由選擇與多個合作伙伴合作，會帶來更明智的思考和更出色的創意。”
Despite their size and scale, both Facebook and Google have limitations, he adds. “A lot of the content on YouTube isn’t where brands want to be. Facebook is a social environment which may not necessarily be the best place to give a brand bottom line impact.”
他補充稱，儘管Facebook和谷歌規模龐大，但它們也有其侷限性。“YouTube上的很多內容都是品牌不想在上面做廣告的。Facebook的社交環境不一定是提升品牌收入的最佳廣告場所。”
While the industry grapples with how to handle the digital duopoly there are other technology companies that could have an even bigger impact on their marketing and sale of consumer goods.
在廣告業思考如何應對數字雙頭壟斷的同時，還有其他科技公司可能會對消費品的營銷和銷售產生更大影響。
Amazon is reportedly planning to produce its own brand of consumer goods products, such as snacks and washing powder. It has worked with consultants to create brands that it will sell on its online store alongside items from established consumer goods companies, such as Unilever.
據報道，亞馬遜(Amazon)計劃推出自有消費品品牌，例如小吃和洗衣粉。亞馬遜已諮詢顧問，欲推出自有品牌，與聯合利華等老牌消費品公司的產品一起在其在線商店銷售。
It is also stepping up its push to be part of the “internet of things” by teaming up with manufacturers to offer its Prime customers automatic reordering via so-called “Dash Buttons”. For example, a consumer places a laundry detergent button next to their washing machine and can press the button to order a fresh supply when they are running out.
此外，亞馬遜還在加快步伐成爲“物聯網”的一部分，與製造商合作向其Prime用戶提供用“一鍵按鈕”(Dash Buttons)自動再次下單的服務。例如，一位消費者可以在洗衣機旁放一個洗衣液按鈕，在洗衣液快用完時，可以按下這個按鈕，再次下單訂購。
Ad campaigns help brands stand out from the competition in stores or online. At Unilever, advertising has helped drive online sales of its brands. “Our share in is higher than in Tesco’s brick and mortar stores,” says Mr prospect of Amazon, the world’s biggest online store, selling its own goods and circumventing the traditional purchasing process has sparked plenty of reflection and anxiety.
廣告幫助品牌在門店或在線競爭中脫穎而出。在聯合利華，廣告幫助推動了其品牌的在線銷售。威德表示：“我們在樂購網站的銷售份額高於在樂購的實體店。”全球最大在線商店亞馬遜銷售自有產品並繞過傳統的購物程序的前景，引發了大量思考和擔憂。
“Clients are terrified,” says one senior ad executive, pointing to Amazon’s scale, market power and ability to sell and deliver its own products quickly and efficiently. How will brands and the companies responsible for marketing and selling them possibly compete?
一位廣告高管表示：“客戶很害怕，”他指的是亞馬遜的規模、市場實力以及快速高效地銷售和遞送自有產品的能力。品牌和負責營銷及銷售的公司如何與之競爭？
The answer is not immediately obvious but those concerns and other worries about Facebook and Google did not stop the industry partying in Cannes this week as if its life depended on it. Which, perhaps, it does. “It doesn’t feel like an industry that is under serious threat, but it is,” says Mr Frampton. “The agency model is being heavily disrupted.”
現在沒有明確現成的答案，但這些擔憂以及其他有關Facebook和谷歌的擔憂，並沒有妨礙上個月的廣告業戛納聚會，好像該行業對之產生了依賴一樣。或許確實如此。“並沒有該行業正面臨嚴重威脅的感覺，但它確實面臨威脅，”弗蘭普頓表示，“廣告代理模式正被嚴重顛覆。”
Google and Facebook are the new advertising kingpins and Amazon is waiting in the wings. Ad men and women know how to tell stories but it is unclear how their own will end.
谷歌和Facebook是新的廣告天王，亞馬遜正蓄勢待發。廣告業的男男女女們都知道如何講故事，但現在還不清楚他們自己的故事將如何結尾。
