中國設備製造商搶佔海外市場份額

China’s construction equipment makers are ramping up the competition against global leaders such as Caterpillar, Komatsu and Deere and appear set to discount products to build market share, a new study has found.

一份新的研究報告顯示，中國建築設備製造商正在加大與卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)、小松(Komatsu)和迪爾(Deere)等全球領軍者的競爭，而且似乎打算通過低價來搶佔市場份額。

The Chinese companies — which include Sany, Zoomlion and XCMG — are likely to boost their market share outside China to around 15 per cent by 2025, up from an estimated 7 per cent currently (see chart), according to research by UBS Evidence Lab, which surveyed about 15,000 construction equipment dealerships around the world.

UBS Evidence Lab的研究顯示，到2025年，包括三一重工(Sany Heavy)、中聯重科(Zoomlion)和徐工機械(XCMG)在內的中國公司在海外佔有的市場份額可能將提高至15%左右，超過當前估計的7%（見圖表）。UBS Evidence Lab對世界各地的約1.5萬家建築設備經銷商進行了調查。

“We think the Chinese are making moves to expand further into the west and we think they have a very good chance to take market share, if they are fully committed to doing so,” said Steven Fisher, UBS analyst.

瑞銀(UBS)分析師史蒂文•費希爾(Steven Fisher)表示：“我們認爲中國人正在採取行動，向西方市場進一步擴張，我們認爲如果它們全力以赴的話，它們很可能可以搶佔市場份額。”

He said that the biggest competitive advantage of the Chinese companies was a relatively low cost base that allowed them to offer discounts in the region of 15 to 40 per cent to equivalent premium brand equipment.

他說，中國公司最大的競爭優勢在於相對較低的成本，這讓它們能夠在西方市場上提供比高端品牌相同配置產品低15%至40%的價格。

This will allow them to take market share in Europe and the US, where the presence of Chinese brands in dealerships remains fairly scarce. The biggest operational challenge for the Chinese, Mr Fisher said, lies in providing aftersales support to dealerships, especially by ensuring that spare parts are supplied quickly and in sufficient quantity.

這將讓它們能夠在歐洲和美國搶佔市場份額——目前在歐美，中國品牌在經銷商處仍然比較少見。費舍爾表示，中國人面臨的最大的運營挑戰在於爲經銷商提供售後支持，尤其是確保能夠迅速地供應足夠多配件。

“We don’t generally assume that Chinese products are going head to head with Caterpillar and Deere,” Mr Fisher added. “But our point is that a discount on a base level product can end up applying pressure further up the chain.”

費舍爾補充稱：“總體而言，我們不認爲中國產品會與卡特彼勒和迪爾正面競爭，但我們認爲，基礎級產品的較低價格可能最終對更高端產品構成壓力。”

The UBS Evidence Lab found in its survey of the 15,000 dealerships that Chinese manufacturers “have increased interest in expanding more aggressively” and — if they maintain this — may be able to scoop up about 1 per cent in market share outside China per year over the next decade.

UBS Evidence Lab在對1.5萬家經銷商調查後發現，中國製造商“對實施更激進的擴張產生了更濃厚的興趣”，如果它們保持這種興趣的話，今後十年就可能每年在海外搶佔大約1%的市場份額。

The effect of this would be a reduction in the available profit pool for western giants such as Caterpillar, Metso, Komatsu, Sandvik, Volvo, Deere, Terex and others, the UBS research report said.

瑞銀的研究報告顯示，隨之而來的影響將是卡特彼勒、美卓公司(Metso)、小松、山特維克(Sandvik)、沃爾沃(Volvo)、迪爾、特雷克斯(Terex)等西方巨頭的利潤被分走一杯羹。

However, the challenges before the Chinese companies in terms of market dynamics appear considerable. In the US, for instance, Chinese brands had only a 3.7 per cent presence in the dealerships surveyed (see map), defining a struggle for brand recognition. “Presence” in the survey was measured by the proportion of points of sale for Chinese brands versus other brands sold in dealerships.

然而，就市場情況來看，中國公司面臨的挑戰似乎非常大。例如，在美國，中國品牌在受訪經銷商中只有3.7%的“存在感”，表明品牌認知度非常低。調查中的“存在感”是通過中國品牌銷售點所佔比例來衡量的，與其形成對照的是經銷商處銷售的其他品牌銷售點所佔比例。

In emerging markets, though, the Chinese firms have made greater inroads, buoyed by infrastructure projects financed through Chinese financial institutions. In Kazakhstan, Chinese construction equipment brands had a presence in 42 per cent of dealerships, an 11 per cent footprint in Brazil, a 24 per cent presence in Russia, and in Iran — where business by European and US corporations has been limited by sanctions — Chinese equipment was on sale in 92 per cent of dealerships.

然而，在新興市場，得益於中國金融機構提供融資的基礎設施項目，中國公司取得了更大的進展。在哈薩克斯坦，中國建築設備品牌在42%的經銷商中有售，這個數字在巴西是11%，在俄羅斯是24%，在歐美企業因制裁而業務受限的伊朗，這個數字達到92%。

The lending firepower of China’s two policy banks — the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China — is likely to enhance the prospect of contracts for Chinese construction equipment makers in coming years. The two banks already lend almost as much as the six western-backed multilateral development institutions put together.

中國兩家政策銀行——國家開發銀行(China Development Bank)和中國進出口銀行(Export-Import Bank of China)充足的放貸能力，可能改善了中國建築設備製造商今後數年簽署合同的前景。這兩家銀行發放的貸款已經幾乎相當於6家西方支持的多邊發展機構發放的貸款總和。

However, the Chinese companies tend to be more heavily mired in debt. Zoomlion is the most egregious, with a total debt to ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) multiple of 21, while XCMG and Sany have multiples of 15.3 and 8.1 respectively. Caterpillar and Komatsu are considerably lower, while Deere has a multiple of 10.9.

然而，中國公司揹負的債務往往更重。中聯重科是最突出的，其債務總額爲息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的21倍，徐工和三一的這個數字則分別爲15.3倍和8.1倍。卡特彼勒和小松的這個數字要低得多，迪爾的這個數字則爲10.9倍。

But in spite of the heavy debt loads carried by Chinese companies, their appetite for overseas acquisitions appears to have remained undiminished. Zoomlion made a cash bid for Terex, the US company, earlier this year, though the result of that overture is still uncertain.

儘管中國公司揹負鉅額債務，但它們對海外收購的興趣依然不減。中聯重科今年年初對美國公司特雷克斯(Terex)發出現金收購要約，儘管現在結果仍不確定。

LiuGong, a Chinese machinery maker with a debt multiple of 16, has made no secret of its intent to boost overseas revenues to 50 per cent by 2020, up from 35 per cent of total revenues now, UBS said. Sany, for its part, announced this year that it had acquired another US-based dealer for earth movers, calling it part of an “aggressive” expansion of the company’s earth moving dealer network.

瑞銀表示，中國機械製造商柳工(LiuGong)毫不掩飾其這一打算，即在2020年年底前，將海外收入佔公司總收入的比例從目前的35%提高至50%（該公司的債務爲EBITDA的16倍）。三一今年則宣佈，它收購了另一家總部位於美國的推土機經銷商。該公司稱，此舉爲“大膽”擴張其推土機經銷商網絡的一部分。