中國樓市呈現冰火兩重天 A tale of two tiers: China's top cities take off

Property prices in China’s top cities soared as much as 57 per cent in the year to February, widening the gap with the country’s ailing smaller locations.

2月份，中國大中城市的房價最高同比上漲了57%，拉大了與每況愈下的小城市的差距。

Shenzhen, the tech-heavy city across the border from Hong Kong, typifies the rise — some say bubble — under way even as China’s economic growth slows and the country braces for a wave of lay-offs from heavy industry.

毗鄰香港、科技企業雲集的深圳，就是房價飆升（有人認爲這是泡沫）的典型。在中國經濟增長放緩、國家準備應對重工業下崗大潮之際，深圳的房價卻在大漲。

Prices of new residential buildings in Shenzhen rose 57 per cent from a year earlier, up from January’s increase of 52 per cent, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday. Meanwhile, the northern city of Dandong in rust-belt Liaoning province saw prices drop 3.9 per cent.

中國國家統計局週五發佈的數據顯示，深圳新建住宅價格同比上漲57%，高於1月份52%的同比漲幅。而在位於“鏽帶”遼寧省的北方城市丹東，新建住宅價格同比下降了3.9%。

Nationally, prices rose at an average annual 2.8 per cent, the biggest one-month rise since June 2014, according to FT calculations based on government data. There are signs that price gains are also feeding through to increased construction activity. Growth in property investment accelerated in the first two months of 2016, breaking a two-year run of slowing growth.

英國《金融時報》根據中國政府的數據估算，2月份中國全國房價平均同比上漲2.8%，爲2014年6月以來的最大單月漲幅。有跡象表明，房價上漲還推動建築活動增加。2016年頭兩個月，房地產投資增長提速，打破了兩年來增長放緩的局面。

Governments in Beijing and Shanghai are now concerned about housing-market overheating and undersupply, while other cities still face an overhang of unsold houses built in expectations of gravity-defying property inflation.

北京市和上海市的政府如今擔心的是住房市場過熱和供給不足，而其他城市仍面臨未售房屋過剩的局面，這些房屋都是因預期房價會只漲不跌而建造的。

The central bank said last week it will clamp down on unregulated peer-to-peer lending for mortgage downpayments — a source of shadow finance that analysts say has helped fuel property speculation.

中國央行上週表示，它將整治不受監管的P2P首付貸。分析師稱，這一影子金融渠道對房地產投機起到了推波助瀾的作用。

“The gap between cities is expanding,” said Liu Jianwei, an analyst from the National Bureau of Statistics. “Prices in tier one and tier two cities are increasing year-on-year, and this month’s increase is even larger than last month. At the same time, prices in tier three cities are decreasing year-on-year, and the rate of decrease is slowing.”

“城市間房價漲幅差距進一步加大，”國家統計局高級統計師劉建偉表示，“分城市看，一、二線城市房價同比平均上漲，漲幅比上月擴大；三線城市同比平均下降，降幅繼續縮小。”

Overall, 32 of 70 cities in the government’s official price survey posted annual price gains in February, up from 25 cities in January. Analysts expect local governments in major cities to adopt measures to tamp demand, while a slow-motion recovery in smaller cities will continue.

總體來看，中國官方房價調查列出的70個大中城市當中，2月份新建住宅價格同比上漲的城市有32個，較1月份的25個有所增加。分析師預計，大城市的地方政府將採取措施抑制需求，而中小城市將繼續緩慢復甦。

“The magnitude of housing price increases will continue to grow, at least through the first half of the year, driven by a rise in transaction volumes,” said Yan Yuejin, research director of E-house China R&D Institute. “In some large cities, inventories are already insufficient, which is leading to market expectations of even bigger price increases.”

“受成交量上升推動，住宅價格將加速上漲，至少在今年上半年會是如此。”易居房地產研究院(E-house China R&D Institute)的研究總監嚴躍進稱，“在部分大城市，庫存已經不足，這促使市場預期，甚至會有更大的價格漲幅。”

Local media described a recent scene in Shanghai, where hundreds of would-be buyers queued overnight, complete with blankets, to steal a march on a property sale.

當地媒體描述了上海近期出現的一個場景：數百名準買家裹着毯子連夜排隊，以求在開盤時能搶在別人前頭。

Highlighting the contrasting fortunes of China’s two-tier property market, the central bank last month cut the minimum downpayment requirement on mortgages outside of top cities from 25 to 20 per cent, in a bid to boost demand.

上月，中國央行將非一線城市首套房最低首付款比例從25%下調至20%，試圖以此來刺激需求。此舉突顯出了中國“雙層”房地產市場中存在的冰火兩重天局面。

These cities are also seeking to woo rural migrants as a means of whittling back inventory. This week, southeastern Jiangxi province began a publicity push that advised migrants: “When farmers buy houses in the city, the value rises; when farmers build houses in the fields, the value falls.”

非一線城市還試圖通過吸引農民工進城來去庫存。本週，江西省開始公開宣傳鼓勵農民進城買房：“農民在城市購房是升值，在農村建房是貶值。”

Excess housing supply, as with overcapacity in other parts of the economy, is expected to spill over on to the banking sector. One analyst said empty houses suggest a larger volume of bad debts than banks’ official figures indicate, since local governments encourage local banks to engage in “extend and pretend” to keep developers liquid.

與經濟其他領域的產能過剩一樣，住房供應過剩預計將對銀行業形成溢出效應。一名分析師稱，空置住宅意味着實際壞賬規模要大於銀行公開給出的數字，這是因爲地方政府鼓勵當地銀行以給貸款展期然後佯裝問題不存在的方式來維持開發商的流動性。

Some developers are turning to diversification in a bid to protect profitability. Two of China’s biggest property developers, Vanke and Country Garden, this month said they will start providing elderly care, after-school classes and catering in their residential areas.

一些開發商正轉向多元化經營來保持盈利能力。本月，中國兩大房地產開發商萬科(Vanke)和碧桂園(Country Garden)稱，它們將開始在其住宅區內提供老年人護理、課外班和餐飲服務。