中國經濟放緩 日本很受傷 Japan's Economy Feels the Sting of China's Slowdown

TOKYO — In its small way, Tsutomu Nyuwa’s metalworking shop in Yasugi, Japan, has been feeding the economic boom 700 miles away in China.

東京——生和勉(Tsutomu Nyuwa)在日本安來市有一家金工工廠，對於700英里之外的中國經濟繁榮，它也做出過自己的小小貢獻。

Many of the precisely machine-tooled gears, bearings and other components turned out by Mr. Nyuwa and his 14 employees end up on Chinese work sites, in the engines of the giant earthmovers that have powered China’s breakneck pace of construction.

生和勉及14名員工生產的機器精加工齒輪、軸承等部件，有很多都安裝在巨型推土機的引擎裏，最後抵達了中國的施工場地，推動着中國一日千里的建設步伐。

But with Chinese growth now slowing, Mr. Nyuwa’s business is slumping — along with the rest of the Japanese economy, which data released on Monday showed is in recession again.

但是，隨着中國經濟增長放緩，生和勉的生意現在正在下滑——日本經濟整體也是一樣，本週一公佈的數據顯示日本經濟在衰退。

Japanese equipment makers like Komatsu, Kubota and Hitachi Construction Machinery are selling fewer excavators and bulldozers in China and, in turn, are buying fewer parts from manufacturers like Mr. Nyuwa. Orders from the construction sector are off 40 percent this year, he estimates.

像小松製造(Komatsu)，久保田(Kubota)和日立建機(Hitachi Construction Machinery)這樣的日本設備製造商，在中國的挖掘機和推土機銷量出現了滑坡，所以從生和勉這樣的供應商處採購的零部件也減少了。生和勉估計，建築行業的訂單今年減少了40%。

“It’s definitely come back down to earth, and we feel it,” Mr. Nyuwa said of the Chinese market.

“中國市場肯定是在大幅下滑，我們感覺到了，”他說。

Japan, more than many other developed countries, needs everything to go right for its economy to grow. Its population and work force are shrinking. Once-big industries like consumer electronics are retrenching under pressure from lower-cost rivals. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won power three years ago on a promise to accelerate Japan’s economic metabolism, but despite some notable successes — joblessness is low and many large companies are earning record profits — a broad increase in growth and incomes remains elusive.

日本比其他任何發達國家都更需要一切都在正軌上，才能實現經濟增長。其總人口和勞動力人口一直在縮減。在成本更低的競爭對手的壓力下，家電產業等曾經頗爲龐大的行業一直在收縮。三年前，首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)因承諾加速日本經濟的新陳代謝而贏得大選。但現在，儘管取得了一些重大的成功——失業率處於低位，很多大公司也實現了創記錄的利潤——但依然難以實現增長和收入的廣泛提速。

With the economy on the edge, even small setbacks can have major repercussions. In the latest quarter, companies wary about the outlook cut back on their investments in factories and equipment, tipping the economy into its fifth recession in seven years. Exports to China dropped sharply, exacerbating the falloff in activity and contributing to the general unease.

在經濟處於邊緣的情況下，即便是小的挫折也可能產生重大影響。上一季度，對前景持謹慎態度的公司削減了對工廠和設備的投資，使經濟進入七年中的第五次衰退。面向中國的出口大幅下降，加劇了活力的衰減，引發普遍的不安。

China’s slowdown has reverberated around the world.

中國的放緩也在全世界造成了嚴重影響。

Commodity-exporting countries like Australia, Brazil and Ecuador have seen demand for their oil, iron ore and other products decline. Developing economies that have grown dependent on Chinese investment in resource projects have been left vulnerable.

澳大利亞、巴西和厄瓜多爾等大宗商品出口國眼看着石油、鐵礦石和其他產品的需求下降。依賴中國投資資源項目的發展中國家變得頗爲脆弱。

Others, like Japan and Germany, have provided many of the machines used to build China’s skyscrapers and equip its thousands of factories. For them, it is manufacturing industries that stand to lose.

中國用來修建高樓大廈和裝備數以千計的工廠的機器中，很多都來自日本和德國等國。對這些國家來說，製造業可能會蒙受損失。

Japan supplies “all the things used in China’s infrastructure expansion,” said Paul Sheard, the chief global economist at Standard & Poor’s, the credit ratings agency. Because of that, Japan now risks being hurt as that expansion slows.

日本供應“中國基礎設施擴張所需的所有東西，”評級公司標準普爾(Standard & Poor’s)全球首席經濟師保羅·希爾德(Paul Sheard)說。因此，隨着中國基礎設施擴張的放緩，日本經濟現在面臨受挫的風險。

China’s economy is hardly in ruins. It grew at an annualized rate of 6.9 percent in the third quarter, according to the official government estimate. While that was enviable by the standards of more advanced countries, it was the lowest rate since 2009, in the depths of the global financial crisis. And sectors that have been especially eager buyers of Japanese capital goods, like manufacturing, construction and mining, are in worse shape than the economy as a whole.

中國經濟遠遠沒到崩盤的地步。據中國官方估計，今年第三季度，它還保持着6.9%的年化增長率。儘管和不少更發達的國家相比，這個數字依然讓人豔羨，但它卻是自2009年全球金融危機以來中國經濟增長的最低速度。而且相比於整體經濟，製造、建築和礦業等尤其熱衷於從日本購買生產資料的行業，狀況要更差一些。

China overtook the United States as Japan’s top trading partner a decade ago. Roaring exports of things like mining trucks, textile looms and semiconductor fabricators have been a bright spot for Japanese industry, which has lost ground in more visible areas like consumer electronics. Diplomatic disputes that have divided Tokyo and Beijing have failed to halt a deepening interdependence in commerce.

10年前，中國替代美國成爲日本頭號貿易伙伴。出口量激增的採礦卡車、紡織機械和半導體產品製造業成爲了日本工業的亮點。在更爲顯眼的消費電子等領域，日本工業失去了昔日的陣地。使東京和北京產生分歧的那些外交爭端，並沒有妨礙兩國在商業上的彼此依賴日益加深。

China’s commercial relationship with Japan has been shifting, however. Rising labor costs in China have prompted many Japanese companies with factories there to spread their bets, turning to countries in Southeast Asia like Thailand and Indonesia.

不過，中日之間的商業關係正在發生改變。中國勞動力成本不斷上升，促使很多在那裏建廠的日本企業開始分散投資，轉向泰國和印度尼西亞等東南亞國家。

In their place, Japanese retailers have poured into China to target newly wealthy consumers there. Convenience stores and clothing chains like Uniqlo have been expanding rapidly.

取而代之的是，日本零售商大量涌入中國。他們的目標是新近富裕起來的中國消費者。便利店和優衣庫(Uniqlo)等服裝連鎖店在中國迅速擴張。

Tomokatsu Shiina, an architectural designer in Tokyo who regularly works in China, recently returned from Shanghai, where he was overseeing design for a Japanese discount shoe retailer's first store in the city. “These are budget consumer items,” he said. “That's where the activity is now.”

經常在中國工作的東京建築設計師椎名友和（Tomokatsu Shiina，音）最近剛剛從上海返回日本，他在那裏負責給一家折扣鞋品零售商設計它在上海的第一家分店。“這些是平價消費品，”他說。“現在活躍的就是這一類。”

It is also in Japanese shopping districts like Ginza in Tokyo, where a standard amenity on package tours from China is an extra, empty suitcase, for filling with brand-name clothing, handbags and electronics. A tourism explosion brought 3.8 million mainland Chinese to Japan in the first nine months of this year, more than twice as many as visited in the same period last year. Their shopping habits have inspired a new Japanese word, “bakugai,” or “explosive buying.”

中國消費力集中的另一個領域是東京銀座等日本商業區。在那裏，中國旅行團遊客的標準配置是額外準備一個空手提箱，用來裝滿他們購買的名牌服裝、手提包和電子產品。日本的中國遊客激增，今年前9個月就有380萬人涌入，是去年同期的兩倍還多。他們的消費習慣還催生了一個日文新詞彙——“爆買”(bakugai)。

Dong Changyuan is one of several new Chinese employees hired by Laox, an electronics chain, at its Ginza store in September. Laox has between 20 and 30 Chinese clerks helping visitors find the right air purifier, heated toilet seat or high-end rice cooker. “There are people who buy four at a time” for friends and relatives back home, Mr. Dong said. The weak yen was still a draw, he added, regardless of lower growth in China.

董昌源（Dong Changyuan，音）是電子產品連鎖店樂購仕(Laox)今年9月爲其銀座店新聘用的幾名中國僱員之一。該公司共有二三十名中國員工幫助遊客尋找自己想要的空氣淨化器、加熱馬桶座，或高檔電飯煲。“有些人一次買四個，”帶給國內的親戚朋友，董昌源說。他還表示，儘管中國經濟增長在放緩，日元疲軟對中國消費者仍是一大吸引力。

At a small shoe store in the same neighborhood, about 15 Chinese shoppers were examining the offerings on a recent afternoon. Kazuhiro Kawashima, the manager, said the number of Chinese customers was Holding up, but they were buying less than they did a few months ago. “They used to buy everything and anything, completely bakugai, but now they’re more selective,” he said. Average spending per customer was down about 5,000 yen, or $40, he estimated.

不久前的一個下午，在銀座的一家小型鞋店內，大約15名中國遊客正在查看店內的商品。店鋪經理川島一弘（Kazuhiro Kawashima，音）表示，中國消費者的人數依然不低，但他們買的東西比之前幾個月有所減少。“他們過去什麼都買，完全是爆買，現在則更有選擇性了，”他說。他估計中國遊客的人均消費下降了大約5000日元（約合260人民幣）。

Retailing and tourism are not yet big enough to fill the hole left by heavy industry. Overall Japanese exports to China fell 3.5 percent in September, according to Japanese government trade figures, the second straight month of decline. Some sectors, like steel, car parts and industrial machinery, are falling more steeply.

零售和旅遊業的增長不足以填補重工業貿易萎縮留下的空缺。日本政府公佈的貿易數據顯示，日本對中國的出口總額在今年9月下降了3.5%，已是連着第二個月出現下滑。在鋼鐵、汽車配件和工業機械等行業，降幅則更大。

Several major Japanese companies, including Canon, the camera and office equipment maker, cited the slowdown as they issued profit warnings over the past few weeks. Steel makers like Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal and JFE Holdings, as well as suppliers of semiconductor-making machinery, also cut their forecasts in response to falling Chinese demand.

包括相機和辦公設備生產商佳能(Canon)在內，好幾家大型日本企業在過去幾周發佈利潤預警時，都將中國經濟放緩列爲一項影響因素。新日鐵住金(Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal)和JEF控股等鋼鐵公司，以及半導體制造機械供應商，也因來自中國的需求持續下降而調低了利潤預期。

“Recovery is going to take time,” Canon’s chief financial officer, Toshizo Tanaka, told reporters. His counterpart at Komatsu, Mikio Fujitsuka, said the company had “no sense yet of hitting bottom” in China.

“市場復甦需要時間，”佳能首席財務官田中稔三(Toshizo Tanaka)告訴記者。小松製造首席財務官藤冢主夫(Mikio Fujitsuka)也表示，公司還“不清楚”它在中國的市場“何時會觸底”。

The headwinds from China are making it harder for the Japanese government to create forward momentum in the economy.

來自中國的阻力使得日本政府更難提振本國經濟。

Mr. Abe’s three-year-old program, known as Abenomics and centered on aggressive stimulus by the central bank, has curbed persistent consumer price declines and benefited exporters by weakening the yen. Unemployment is just 3.4 percent, the lowest it has been in two decades. Yet the project remains “half-finished,” said Mr. Sheard of S.&P., with deflation not yet safely beaten and many households and businesses still fearful about the future.

安倍晉三提出的以中央銀行大力刺激爲核心的三年期“安倍經濟學”(Abenomics)遏制了國內消費價格指數的持續下滑，還通過日元貶值促進了出口增長。日本失業率目前只有3.4%，是20年來的最低點。但這個計劃“還有一半沒有實現”，來自標準普爾的希爾德說。日本通貨緊縮的情況並未得到真正的改善，很多家庭和企業依然對未來充滿擔憂。

To give the economy another push, Mr. Abe’s government is putting together a stimulus package worth 3.5 trillion, or roughly $29 billion, according to Japanese media reports. But sustained stimulus is politically tricky. Mr. Abe says he is committed to increasing the national sales tax in April 2017, after delaying a planned 2 percent increase by 18 months to take pressure off growth. The finance ministry wants more tax revenue to offset Japan’s national debt, the largest in the world relative to the size of the economy.

據日本媒體報道，爲了再推經濟一把，安倍政府正在制定一項價值3.5萬億日元的刺激計劃。不過，實施持續的刺激計劃在政治上頗爲棘手。安倍表示，他決心在2017年4月提高全國性的消費稅。一年半之前他就計劃將這項稅率提高2%，以緩解經濟增長壓力，後延遲至今。日本財務省也希望增加稅收，以償還日本的國債。日本的債務與其經濟規模的比值爲全球之最。

At his metalworking shop, Mr. Nyuwa said he did not believe government policy would do much to change the direction of the economy. Abenomics, he said, may have helped big companies at the top of the food chain, and the investors that own their shares, but it has not done much to benefit small businesses like his.

生和勉在自己的金工工廠裏表示，他認爲政府的政策不大會扭轉日本經濟發展的方向。他說“安倍經濟學”或許會有益於食物鏈頂層的大企業和擁有這些企業股票的投資者，但對他這樣的小企業不會有太大幫助。

“It’s never really connected,” he said. “Now it’s just that time in the cycle where you have to dig in and bear it.”

“跟政策從來都沒什麼關係，”他說。“現在就處在週期中的那個時間點上，你必須站穩腳跟，撐過去。”