10月中國貿易數據大幅下降 China trade slumps on waning demand

China’s trade with the rest of the world fell sharply in October from a year earlier, with imports of raw materials particularly hard hit as slowing Chinese investment feeds through into weaker demand in the world’s biggest trader of goods.

中國與世界其他地區的貿易10月同比大幅下滑，原材料進口受到尤其沉重的打擊，中國投資放緩削弱了這個全球最大商品貿易國的需求。

Chinese imports fell 18.8 per cent in October from the same month a year earlier, a slight improvement from the 20.4 per cent year-on-year fall in September. Sharply lower prices of oil and other commodities also helped scythe the bill.

10月中國進口同比下降18.8%，降幅較9月的20.4%略有改善。石油和其他大宗商品價格大幅走低也幫助壓低了進口總值。

Exports declined 6.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, deteriorating from the 3.7 per cent fall the previous month as weak global demand and higher Chinese costs led to slumping shipments of the cheap Chinese goods that have flowed to the world in the last decade.

10月中國出口同比下降6.9%，較上月3.7%的降幅有所惡化。疲弱的全球需求和中國成本上漲導致過去10年期間從中國大量流向世界的廉價商品減少。

At the start of the year, the ruling Communist party set a target of 6 per cent growth in trade for this year but total trade has now fallen by just over 8 per cent in the first ten months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier.

今年初，執政的共產黨設定了今年貿易增長6%的目標，但2015年頭十個月的貿易總額同比下降逾8%。

“Soft domestic demand and the decline in commodity prices continued to weigh on China’s import growth,” said Liu Li-gang, an economist at ANZ bank. “Looking ahead, China’s export sector will continue to face significant headwinds.”

“疲軟的國內需求和大宗商品價格下跌繼續拖累中國的進口增長，”澳新銀行(ANZ bank)經濟學家劉利剛表示。“展望未來，中國的出口行業仍將面臨一些重大不利因素。”

Much of the decline in Chinese imports stems from lower commodity prices, which in turn are a result of falling overall demand from China, long the world’s biggest consumer of materials such as iron ore, coal and copper.

中國進口下降在很大程度上源於大宗商品價格走低，而後者反過來又是中國總體需求下降的結果。中國已經多年是鐵礦石、煤炭、銅等材料的世界最大消費國。

Stripping out price, volumes of Chinese imports in October fell a more modest 2.6 per cent from a year earlier, according to estimates from Oxford Economics.

據牛津經濟研究院(Oxford Economics)估算，若剔除價格影響，中國10月進口量同比降幅爲2.6%。

The fall in demand for industrial bulk commodities was particularly pronounced. Huge oversupply in China’s real estate and manufacturing sectors has damped investment in new capacity in recent months, denting demand for all kinds of raw materials.

對工業大宗商品需求的下降尤爲明顯。中國房地產和製造業的嚴重供應過剩在近幾個月抑制了對新產能的投資，進而削弱了對各種原材料的需求。

Iron ore imports fell 12.3 per cent by volume in October from the previous month and 4.9 per cent from the same month a year earlier while coal imports were down 21.4 per cent from September and 30.7 per cent from a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data.

根據中國海關的數據，10月鐵礦石進口量較上月環比下降12.3%，同比下降4.9%，而煤炭進口環比下降21.4%，同比下降30.7%。

Analysts say headline import figures may start to improve in the coming months since commodity price falls were particularly pronounced at the end of 2014, which will mean smaller year-on-year falls in Chinese imports in value terms.

分析師們表示，未來幾個月整體進口數據可能開始好轉，因爲大宗商品價格下跌在2014年底尤爲顯著，這將意味着按價值計算的中國進口同比降幅較小。

Meanwhile, exports are expected to continue falling due to the combination of weak global demand and higher prices, as well as China’s decision to effectively re-peg the renminbi to the strengthening dollar.

與此同時，預計出口將繼續下降，原因是全球需求疲軟而價格上漲，以及中國實際上決定讓人民幣匯率再度盯住正在走強的美元。

Despite an abortive attempt in August to devalue the renminbi — a move that rocked global markets and was quickly abandoned by Beijing — China’s trade-weighted exchange rate was 8.5 per cent stronger in September than a year earlier, making Chinese exports less competitive.

儘管曾在8月份做出讓人民幣貶值的不了了之的嘗試（此舉震撼了全球市場，很快就被北京方面放棄），但9月份中國的貿易加權匯率同比上升8.5%，這意味着中國出口產品的競爭力有所減弱。

“Given the unfavourable reaction to the August depreciation, we think any further depreciation will not take place soon,” said Louis Kuijs, an economist at Oxford Economics based in Hong Kong. “In our view the October trade data keep pressure on [the government] for more domestic easing.”

“考慮到8月貶值行動引發負面反應，我們認爲近期不會出臺進一步的貶值，”常駐香港的牛津經濟研究院經濟學家高路易(Louis Kuijs)表示。“我們認爲10月的貿易數據將繼續（使政府）面臨壓力，要求其在國內出臺更多寬鬆政策。”

In the first 10 months of the year, Chinese exports to the US were up 5.2 per cent from the same period in 2014, while exports to countries in Asean were up 3.7 per cent, according to Chinese customs figures.

根據中國海關的數據，今年頭十個月，中國對美國出口同比增長5.2%，對東盟(Asean)國家出口同比增長3.7%。

Exports to the EU, Japan and Hong Kong — which serves as a transit point for exports to many other parts of the world — fell by 4.1 per cent, 9.5 per cent and 12.2 per cent respectively.

對歐盟、日本和香港（香港是中國向世界其它很多地區出口的一箇中轉站）出口分別下跌4.1%、9.5%和12.2%。