駛往東方的大郵輪 Cruise lines set sail for China as holiday boom gathers steam
More than 1m Chinese will go on a cruise holiday this year — nearly five times as many as in 2012 — a statistic that has whipped the global industry into a record expansion of ship orders and a collective decision to sail the world’s largest and most luxurious mega-vessels eastward.
今年，將有100萬以上的中國人乘坐郵輪度假——較2012年增加近4倍——這一數字促使全球郵輪業創下了新增船舶訂單記錄，同時使得郵輪公司紛紛作出決定，將全球最大最豪華的巨型郵輪駛向東方。
But the optimism of the cruise companies may be outpacing the reality of the Chinese boom: travel agents have had to deeply discount in order to fill some new ships.
但是，郵輪公司對中國郵輪旅遊熱的樂觀預期或許超前於現實了：旅行社得打極低折扣才能保證一些新郵輪的入住率。
Ship brokers tracking the past two decades of market activity say that in recent months, global cruise ship investment has entered a new phase. But that observation comes with warnings from the past — explosive expansions of the cruise order book in 1999 and 2006 were followed by equally spectacular busts.
追蹤了該行業過去二十年市場活動的船舶經紀商稱，最近幾個月，全球郵輪投資進入了一個新階段。但與此同時，過去的經驗也向我們發出了警告——1999年和2006年郵輪訂單爆炸性增長後，都曾出現慘烈的訂單萎縮。
The traditional market will continue to depend on the retirement spending of baby boomers in the west but the growth outlook will be shaped by an Asian middle class bursting to spend their money and comparatively short vacations at sea. The question this time is whether the establishment of new Chinese brands and the development of Asian ports will make for a less bust-prone pattern.
傳統市場將繼續依賴於西方嬰兒潮一代退休人士的支出，但是該行業的增長前景將由渴望把錢和相對較短的假期花在海上的亞洲中產階級決定。眼下的問題是，中國新品牌的創建和亞洲港口的開發是否將有助於創建一種不那麼容易破滅的發展模式。
After an unprecedented 50 per cent year-on-year surge of orders in 2015, the market is expected to add an additional 146,000 passenger berths by 2020.
在2015年訂單前所未有地同比大增50%之後，預計到2020年該市場將增加14.6萬個鋪位。
North American and European passengers account for 85 per cent of the global cruise market of 22m passengers a year. But the signals of change are clear.
北美和歐洲乘客佔據着全球郵輪市場每年2200萬乘客的85%。但是，如今已經出現了明顯的改變信號。
The Chinese government has thrown its weight behind the cruise industry and expects that 4.5m of its citizens will be taking a cruise each year by 2020. A more conservative prediction from Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, is for 3m annual passengers, or 10 per cent of the market.
中國政府支持郵輪業發展，它預計到2020年，每年將有450萬中國人乘坐郵輪。投行摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)所做的較爲保守的預測是，中國每年將有300萬人乘坐郵輪，佔全球郵輪市場的10%。
In South Korea and Japan, which are a few days’ sea voyage from Shanghai and Tianjin, local ports are racing to expand their facilities to accommodate the new class of mega-ships, which could carry more than 6,000 passengers.
在韓國和日本（從上海和天津出發，走海路只需幾天就能到達），各地方港口正競相擴建基礎設施，以容納可搭載逾6000名乘客的新型巨輪。
The major cruise companies, led by Carnival and Royal Caribbean, which together account for 80 per cent of the Chinese market, have begun sending new vessels to be permanently based in the east and fitted out with more shopping, more casinos and enclosed sun decks to tailor to local needs.
以嘉年華公司(Carnival)和皇家加勒比郵輪集團(Royal Caribbean)——兩家公司總共佔據了中國市場80%的份額——爲首的主要郵輪公司，已經開始派遣新郵輪常駐東方，同時配備了更多的購物場所、賭場以及封閉式日光浴場以滿足當地需求。
Last week, Carnival doubled the number of its cruise brands in China to four, with two new ships arriving by 2017. Arnold Donald, chief executive, says the company wanted to offer “choice and variety” to match “the different tastes and preferences of Chinese travellers”.
日前，嘉年華公司將其在中國的郵輪品牌增加一倍至4個，到2017年還將有2艘新郵輪抵達中國。其首席執行官阿諾德唐納德(Arnold Donald)稱，該公司希望提供“多種多樣的選擇”，以滿足“中國旅客不同的品味和偏好”。
He adds that Carnival may also launch a joint venture with the China State Shipbuilding Corporation and China Merchants Group to build a domestic Chinese cruise brand.
他補充稱，嘉年華可能還將與中國船舶工業集團公司(China State Shipbuilding Corporation)和中國招商局集團(China Merchants Group)共同創辦一家合資企業，來打造中國本土郵輪品牌。
Royal Caribbean has sent its most advanced ships to China, complete with high-speed internet, smart bracelets for payments, a 300ft high viewing pod, robot bartenders, a rock climbing wall, bumper cars and a skydiving wind tunnel, in order to appeal to every generation of Chinese families.
皇家加勒比已經將其最先進的郵輪派往中國，船上配有高速網絡、智能支付手環、300英尺高的搖臂觀景艙、機器人調酒師、攀巖牆、碰碰車以及可玩甲板跳傘的垂直風洞，以吸引中國家庭中各代人的興趣。
The clearest evidence of the shift, say researchers at the UK-based brokerage Clarksons, has been orders for cruise ships hitting an all-time high. The worldwide order-book as of September 1 stands at 41 ships, with a combined value of about $26bn. Once financing and technical issues are settled on orders placed by Celebrity, Virgin, MSC and Crystal — probably within the next few months — the total will jump to 51.
總部位於英國的船舶經紀商Clarksons的研究員稱，這一轉變最明顯的證據是郵輪訂單創下歷史新高。截至9月1日，全球郵輪訂單量爲41艘，總價值約爲260億美元。一旦精緻郵輪(Celebrity)、維珍郵輪(Virgin)、地中海郵輪(MSC)、水晶郵輪(Crystal)所下訂單的融資和技術問題得以解決——很可能在未來數月內解決——全球郵輪訂單總數將增至51艘。
In the southern Japanese town of Fukuoka — a destination that has proven popular as a destination for Chinese shoppers — the port operator is lobbying the central Japanese government to allow it to extend the jetties by an additional 330 metres to accommodate the new Oasis class of cruise ship. Of the 1m Chinese forecast to take a cruise some time in 2015, about a quarter called at Fukuoka. A year ago, the port received 99 cruise ships; this year it will receive 251.
在日本南部的福岡——受到中國購物者喜愛的目的地——港口運營商正遊說日本中央政府允許其將碼頭額外擴寬330米，以容納新型綠洲級郵輪。預計2015年將有100萬中國遊客搭乘郵輪，其中約有四分之一的人停靠福岡。一年前，該港口接待了99艘郵輪；而今年將接待251艘。
Gianni Onorato, chief executive of Switzerland-based MSC Cruises, warned that the pace of investment might not be rapid enough.
總部位於瑞士的地中海郵輪的首席執行官詹尼攠諾拉託(Gianni Onorato)警告稱，投資速度或許還不夠快。
“For sure there will be these millions of Chinese taking a cruise. The main challenge is about not so much the development of ports and destinations inside China, but outside of China,” he says. “Because of the geography it depends on Japan and Korea and so far no one is seeing the same speed of development.”
“肯定將會有數百萬中國遊客搭乘郵輪。主要的挑戰不在於中國國內港口和旅遊目的地的開發，而在於中國以外的，”他稱，“由於地理位置的關係，這將取決於日本和韓國在這方面的開發，而到目前爲止這兩個國家還沒有出現同樣的開發速度。”
Relying on China is also a potentially risky strategy. Several ships had to cancel their cruises to South Korea, one of a handful of key destinations, after an outbreak of the Mers virus this year. And the anti-Japan riots of 2012 caused havoc with itineraries. Royal Caribbean did not visit any Japanese ports during spring and summer 2013.
依靠中國市場也是一個存在潛在風險的策略。今年在MERS疫情爆發後，一些郵輪不得不取消其前往韓國（爲數不多的主要目的地之一）的行程。而2012年的反日風波嚴重影響了部分郵輪的行程。2013年春夏兩季，皇家加勒比的郵輪沒有停靠過任何一個日本港口。
Another big challenge, however, will be adapting their offering to the Chinese tastes. Mr Onorato, for example, pointed out that food is a key part of Chinese culture but consumers take a different approach to their western counterparts. “There is no clear separation of breakfast, lunch and dinner,” he says, adding that the company is partnering with leading chefs to modify its food service.
然而，另一個重大挑戰將是如何提供符合中國人喜好的服務。例如，奧諾拉託指出，吃是中國文化的關鍵組成部分，但是中國消費者的餐飲習慣又與西方人不同。“中國的早餐、午餐和完成沒有明顯的區分，”他表示，並補充稱地中海郵輪正在與中國頂尖的廚師合作調整其餐飲服務。
Mr Onorato adds that MSC is creating a new position of “cruise ambassador”, a person who would act as a “tutor of small groups of customers” and accompany them throughout a trip. The company is “working now with two main partners for sourcing of crew and training”.
奧諾拉託補充道，地中海郵輪正在打造“遊輪使者”的全新職位——使者們將“指導和照顧一組組顧客”，全程陪伴他們。該公司如今有“兩個主要合作伙伴，幫助它招聘人員和開展培訓”。
