中國鋼鐵產量下降 但壓縮產能任重道遠

China's production of crude steel in November fell to its lowest monthly volume this year. The decline is partly due to seasonal factors but also comes as the government is taking steps to curb overcapacity in the sector.

中國11月份粗鋼產量創下今年以來的單月最低水平，產量下降部分歸因於季節性因素，同時也因爲政府推出了限制鋼鐵產能的措施。

The country makes nearly half the world's steel, and its output of the metal is a bellwether for industrial demand and affects global prices for iron ore, which is used in steel production. Chinese mills last month produced 60.9 million metric tons, a 6.5% decline from October to the lowest monthly level since December last year, the National Statistics Bureau said Tuesday.

中國鋼鐵產量佔全球產量的近一半，鋼鐵產量是工業需求的風向標，並影響着國際鐵礦石價格，後者是鋼鐵生產的原料。中國國家統計局週二公佈，11月份中國鋼鐵產量爲6,090萬噸，較10月份下降6.5%，爲去年12月份以來的最低單月產量。

Partly the decline is explained by slower construction of buildings and other projects in the winter months, reducing demand for steel, said Vaseem Karbhari, analyst with data provider The Steel Index.

數據供應商鋼鐵指數(The Steel Index)分析師Vaseem Karbhari稱，產量下降的部分原因是，冬季建築和其他項目建設活動放緩，導致鋼鐵需求減少。

China's steel mills, though, are facing other challenges. Policy makers want to shift the nation's growth model away from one led by investment, which creates construction projects that tap on heavy industry like steel mills, to one that fosters more domestic consumption and local innovation.

不過中國鋼鐵企業也面臨其他挑戰。中國領導人希望把經濟增長模式從投資驅動轉向由內需和本地創新拉動。投資帶來的基礎設施建設項目，可刺激鋼鐵企業等重工業的需求。

Last month, the government announced fresh edicts aimed at downsizing the steel sector, including an extension of a moratorium on building new capacity. 'With environmental policy tightening in some areas, some steel mills have begun to halt production,' the China Iron and Steel Association said in a report Monday.

中國政府上個月公佈了壓縮鋼鐵產能的新政策，其中包括延長停止審批鋼鐵項目的期限。中國鋼鐵工業協會週一發佈報告稱，隨着一些地區執行嚴格的環保政策，部分鋼廠已開始停產。

Authorities also have been closing steel makers, including one mill in northern Hebei province in November, as the government has been trying to cut down the size of the steel industry to control pollution, among other goals.

有關部門也着手關閉一些鋼鐵企業，11月份拆除了河北省北部的一個鋼鐵生產設施。出於控制污染等目的，政府一直在致力於壓縮鋼鐵產能。

In the longer-run, some analysts expect this trend to lead to lower demand for iron ore and other inputs for steel production.

一些分析師預計，從長遠來看，這一趨勢預示着鐵礦石和其他鋼鐵生產投入原料的需求將出現下降。

'As China shifts from an investment-driven economy towards a more consumer-led one, long-term demand growth for metals is expected to slow down,' Singapore-based Fitch Ratings director Suaik Lim said.

惠譽國際評級(Fitch Ratings)駐新加坡的主管林樹毅(Suaik Lim)表示，隨着中國經濟由投資拉動向消費拉動型轉型，預計對金屬的長期需求增長將放緩。

Still, some observers say it's too early for the change of tack to have affected steel producers in a big way. Platts, a commodity price and news provider, said the shuttered Hebei facility produced less than 7 million metric tons a year from a total nationwide estimated output of 1 billion metric tons per year.

但是一些觀察人士表示，目前這種經濟戰略的轉變還不會對鋼鐵製造商產生重大影響。

Platts said it was unlikely efforts to curb overcapacity in the steel-making sector would show any progress in 2014.

大宗商品價格和資訊提供商普氏能源資訊(Platts)表示，被關停的河北鋼廠的年產能不足700萬噸，而全國的年產能估計爲10億噸。普氏能源資訊表示，遏制鋼鐵行業產能過剩的努力在2014年不大可能取得任何進展。

Despite November's decline, China steel output in 2013 is still likely to top last year's 716.5 million tons for a record-high annual volume. Output in the first 11 months reached 713 million tons, buoyed by a strong third quarter.

儘管11月份的產量下滑，但是中國今年的鋼鐵產量仍有望超過去年7.165億噸的產量，創造年產量紀錄。今年前11個月中國的鋼鐵產量達到7.13億噸，因第三季度產量較高。

Beijing continues to rely on stimulus spending on infrastructure to boost economic growth, which has underpinned demand for steel and iron ore.

中國繼續依賴刺激基建投資來促進經濟增長，這支撐了對鋼鐵和鐵礦石的需求。

In November, China imported 77.8 million tons of iron ore, much of it from Brazil and Australia, a record monthly total. Mills typically stockpile iron ore at the end of the year, as output from domestic mines slow due to freezing weather. That has helped iron ore prices recover from a slump earlier this year.

中國11月份進口鐵礦石7,780萬噸，大部分來自巴西和澳大利亞，進口量創月度紀錄。這提振鐵礦石價格由今年早些時候的跌勢中反彈。鋼鐵廠通常會在年底時囤積鐵礦石，因爲受寒冷天氣影響，國內礦山的產量下滑。

The strong imports also came after authorities in the summer made it easier for companies to import iron ore. Sixty-eight new importers joined in the trading since new measures took effect in July, the China Iron and Steel Association said Monday. The previous system limited imports to just 118 license holders.

中國政府在夏季推出了方便公司進口鐵礦石的政策。中國鋼鐵工業協會週一表示，新政策7月開始生效後，又有68家進口商獲得了鐵礦石進口資質，之前擁有該資質的進口商只有118家。

Of course, a tilt away from heavy industry is likely to lead to slower overall growth for China - with big implications for steel and iron ore. But that should take time.

毫無疑問，降低對重工業的依賴程度可能導致中國整體經濟增長放緩（這將對鋼鐵和鐵礦石產生重大影響），但是這需要時間。