西方對自身社會制度的未來失去信心

What defines the west? American and European politicians like to talk about values and institutions. But for billions of people around the world, the crucial point is simpler and easier to grasp. The west is the part of the world where even ordinary people live comfortably. That is the dream that makes illegal immigrants risk their lives, trying to get into Europe or the US.

西方的定義是什麼？歐美政客們喜歡談論價值觀和制度。但對世界各地的幾十億人而言，西方這個詞語中的關鍵點更簡單、更易理解。西方就是連普通人都能舒舒服服生活的地方。正是懷着這份夢想，非法移民纔會冒着生命危險前往歐洲或美國。

Yet, even though the lure of the west remains intense, the western world itself is losing faith in its future. Last week Barack Obama gave one of the bleakest speeches of his presidency. In unsparing terms, the US president chronicled the increasing inequality and declining social mobility that, he says, “pose a fundamental threat to the American dream, our way of life and what we stand for around the world”.

不過，雖然西方的吸引力依然巨大，但西方世界卻對自己的未來失去了信心。上週，巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)發表了其總統任期內最悲觀的一場講話。美國總統以尖銳的言辭闡述了不平等加劇和社會流動性下降等問題，他認爲這些問題“對美國夢、美國人的生活方式和美國在世界上代表的意義構成了根本威脅”。

A Pew Research Center opinion survey, conducted in 39 countries this spring, asked: “Will children in your country be better off than their parents?” Only 33 per cent of Americans believed their children would live better, while 62 per cent said they would live worse. Europeans were even gloomier. Just 28 per cent of Germans, 17 per cent of Brits, 14 per cent of Italians and 9 per cent of French thought their children would be better off than previous generations. This western pessimism contrasts strongly with optimism in the developing world: 82 per cent of Chinese, 59 per cent of Indians and 65 per cent of Nigerians believe in a more prosperous future.

皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)今年春天在39國進行了一項民意調查——“你們國家的孩子們是否將比父母們生活得更好？”只有33%的美國人相信孩子們能過得更好，而62%的人表示孩子們的生活將不如父輩。歐洲人更悲觀。只有28%的德國人、17%的英國人、14%的意大利人和9%的法國人認爲他們的子女會過得比前幾代好。西方的悲觀與發展中世界的樂觀形成鮮明對比：82%的中國人、59%的印度人和65%的尼日利亞人相信未來將更加繁榮。

It would be nice to believe that talk of a decline in western living standards is simply hype. But, unfortunately, the numbers suggest that the public are on to something. According to researchers at the Brookings Institution, the wages of working-age men in the US – adjusted for inflation – have fallen by 19 per cent since 1970. Joe Average – once the epitome of the American dream – has fallen back, even as gains for the top 5 per cent of incomes have soared. Even conservative politicians are worried. Senator Marco Rubio, a contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, points out that his parents were able to “make it into the middle class” from relatively humble jobs, as a bartender and a maid. These days, he acknowledges, that would no longer be possible.

西方生活水平下降的說法只是誇大其辭？若是能這麼想該多好。但不幸的是，數據表明公衆的悲觀是有道理的。布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)的研究人員發現，剔除通脹因素，美國勞動適齡男性人口的工資自1970年來下降了19%。收入最高的5%人羣還在大舉積攢財富，但一度作爲美國夢化身的普通大衆卻經受了倒退。就連保守派政治家也爲此擔憂。2016年共和黨總統選舉候選人的競爭者、參議員馬可•魯比奧(Marco Rubio)指出，他的父母一輩可以從酒吧侍者和女僕這樣相對卑微的工作起步，“邁入中產階級”。但他承認，這在現在是不可能的。

The sense of gloom and insecurity in Europe is also grounded in reality – in particular the knowledge that welfare and retirement benefits are likely to be less generous in future. The pressure on prosperity is most intense in countries that have suffered worst in the debt-crisis – places such as Greece and Portugal have seen actual cuts in wages and pensions.

歐洲的悲觀和不安感同樣源於現實——特別是人們認識到，未來的福利和退休金將沒那麼豐厚。在受債務危機影響最嚴重的國家，阻礙繁榮的壓力最大——希臘和葡萄牙等地已經削減了工資和退休金。

But living standards are even under pressure in European countries that have done relatively well. Research by the Financial Times has shown that Britons born in 1985 are the first cohort for 100 years not to be experiencing better living standards than those born 10 years previously.

但即便是在表現相對不錯的歐洲國家，生活水平也在承受壓力。英國《金融時報》的研究顯示，1985年出生的英國人生活水平沒有好於比他們早生10年的人，這是100年來的頭一回。

Even in Germany, often lauded as the most successful big economy in the western world, the benefits of the “Merkel miracle” have been felt mainly at the top end of the wage scale. The economic reforms that laid the basis for Germany’s current export boom involved holding down wages, cutting social benefits and employing many more temporary workers.

德國常被譽爲西方世界最成功的大型經濟體，但在這裏，“默克爾奇蹟”的受益者主要是該國的高工資人羣。爲德國當前出口繁榮奠定基礎的經濟改革措施包括壓低工資、削減社會福利和僱傭更多的臨時工。

There is a connection between the rising optimism in the developed world and the rising pessimism in the west. In his speech last week, Mr Obama remarked that “starting in the late 1970s, the social contract began to unravel”. Perhaps not coincidentally, it was also in the late 1970s that China began to open up.

發展中世界愈發樂觀，西方愈發悲觀，二者間存在聯繫。在上週的講話中，奧巴馬錶示“從20世紀70年代末起，社會契約開始瓦解”。也是在70年代末，中國開始對外開放，這或許不是巧合。

Even defenders of globalisation now usually acknowledge that the emergence of a global labour force has helped hold down wages in the west. Some European friends of mine daydream that protectionism – or even a war in Asia – could send more well-paid jobs back to the west. But in reality, globalisation seems unlikely ever really to go into reverse, given the technological, economic and political forces pushing it forwards. It would certainly be morally dubious to attempt to bolster western living standards by undermining an economic trend that has dragged hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in the developing world.

如今，即便是全球化的支持者通常也會承認，全球性勞動力的出現幫助壓制了西方的工資。我的一些歐洲朋友們幻想保護主義——或者是亞洲爆發戰爭——可能導致更多待遇優厚的就業崗位流回西方。但事實上，考慮到推動全球化趨勢的技術、經濟和政治力量，全球化似乎很難再發生逆轉。爲圖提高西方生活水平而破壞一種使發展中國家數億人脫貧的經濟趨勢，在道德上無疑是有問題的。

Even if the western nations did close their markets, western employees – including white-collar workers – would increasingly find that many jobs could be done cheaper by computers or robots. Indeed the march of the robots will also soon pose a threat to assembly-line workers in China.

即使西方國家真的封鎖本國市場，西方僱員——包括白領——也會日益發現，計算機或機器人能夠以更低的成本完成許多工作。事實上，機器人的發展很快將威脅到中國的流水線工人。

If the erosion of living standards continues, how will western voters react? There are already signs of political radicalisation – with the populist right on the rise in both the US and Europe. But, as yet, there is no real sign that the Tea Party in America or nationalist movements in Europe have a realistic shot at controlling the central government in a large nation. The consensus around globalisation also seems to be holding. Indeed this weekend the World Trade Organisation apparently made a breakthrough in the search for a new global trade deal.

如果生活水平繼續下降，西方選民將如何反應？西方已經出現政治激進化的跡象，美國和歐洲的右翼民粹主義勢力都在擡頭。但目前爲止沒有確實跡象表明美國茶黨(Tea Party)或歐洲民族主義運動真正嘗試控制一個大國的中央政府。全球化共識似乎還在延續。上週末，世界貿易組織(WTO)似乎在追求達成全球性貿易協議的過程中取得了突破。

But while new political movements are not yet ready to smash the established parties in the west, mainstream politicians are having to react to the new economic climate. Rising inequality is increasing the pressure for more redistributive taxes and higher minimum wages on both sides of the Atlantic. Another decade of western economic malaise – or, God forbid, another financial crisis – is likely to see more radical solutions and politicians emerging.

雖然西方的新政治運動尚未做好擊敗成熟黨派的準備，但主流政治家必須應對新的經濟環境。社會不平等加劇，更加要求大西洋兩岸實施收入再分配能力更強的稅收政策，並提高最低工資標準。如果西方經濟低迷再延續十年，或者是再爆發一場金融危機（但願不要），可能將出現更加激進的解決對策和政治家。