中國製造威力巨大 互聯網加劇西方社會分化

In recent years the phrase “Made in China” has struck fear into the hearts of western workers and politicians. As China has swelled in economic might – to a point where it will soon outpace the US in size, according to data released this week – its factories have undercut western rivals, causing manufacturing jobs to move.

最近幾年，“中國製造(Made in China)”一詞已將恐懼注入西方工人和政界人士心中。隨着中國經濟實力的日益膨脹——根據不久前發佈的數據，要不了多久中國的經濟規模就會超過美國——中國的工廠以低廉的成本對西方對手造成了衝擊，導致西方製造業崗位外流。然而，西方決策者需要關注的不僅僅是種種小器具，還有萬維網(Worldwide Web)。這是因爲，要理解爲什麼眼下有關不平等的爭論會在盎格魯撒克遜的政治世界如此盛行，爲什麼托馬斯•皮凱蒂(Thomas Piketty)關於該話題的新書《21世紀的資本》(Capital in the Twenty-First Century)會引發如此強烈的共鳴，十分重要的一點是要認識到，全球化的面貌正在發生微妙但重要的變化。

But it is not just widgets that western policy makers need to watch, but the worldwide web. For if you want to understand why debates about inequality are all the rage in the Anglo-Saxon political world – and why Thomas Piketty’s new book on the subject, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, has struck such a powerful chord – it is important to realise that the face of globalisation is undergoing a subtle, but important, shift.

最明顯的一點是，互聯網正在令跨國業務發生改變。這種數字化進程一方面雖然創造了新機遇（原本印刷文化衫的孟買企業家如今可以設計出自己的款式並銷往全球），另一方面卻也有可能產生新型的贏家和輸家（部分西方設計師可能會發現，印度同行以更低廉的價格對自己造成了衝擊）。不平等問題因此引發了關注。

Most notably, the internet is transforming cross-border business. And while this process of digitisation creates opportunity – Mumbai entrepreneurs who would once have printed T-shirts might now concoct their own designs and sell them around the world – it also threatens to create new categories of winners and losers (some western designers may find themselves undercut by their Indian peers). Hence the interest in inequality.

要理解這一點，可以看看麥肯錫全球研究所（McKinsey Global Institute，簡稱MGI）剛剛發佈的一份有關數字時代經濟流動的報告。該報告估計，過去20年裏跨境經濟流動規模增長了4倍，從1990年的一年約5萬億美元，增長到2012年的26萬億美元，最後這個數字相當於全球GDP的36%。

To get a sense of that, take a look at a report just released by the McKinsey Global Institute on economic flows in a digital age. This analysis estimates that in the past two decades the level of cross-border economic flows has risen fivefold: it was about $5tn a year in 1990, but by 2012 had risen to $26tn, or 36 per cent of global gross domestic product.

從某種程度上說這一結果並不讓人驚訝，人們都知道，如今的世界是一個“全球化”世界。然而，人們不太瞭解的一點是：全球化正在發生改變。在2007年之前的10年裏，跨境經濟流動增長最快的部分是資金流動，信貸繁榮引發了資本流動的激增，並促使市場迅速整合。隨着西方製造商將生產轉移至低成本國家，可交易商品的流動也急劇增加。比如說，中國在這一過程中，佔世界有形商品貿易的比重就從1990年的2%增長到2012年的12%。

On one level that is unsurprising; it is commonplace that we live in a “globalised” world. What is less appreciated is that globalisation has undergone a shift. In the decade before 2007, the fastest growing component of cross-border flows was money; the credit boom sparked a surge in capital flows and market integration. Flows of tradeable goods also rose sharply, as western manufacturers shifted production to low-cost countries. In the process China, for example, went from having 2 per cent of the world’s trade in tangible goods in 1990 to 12 per cent in 2012.

然而自2007年起，全球出現了兩大突出變化。第一大變化是，由於金融危機後風聲鶴唳的銀行在放貸上變得更爲謹慎，金融全球化進程出現了倒退。據MGI估計，跨境金融流動規模比2007年低了70%。第二大變化則是，數字通信的急劇擴張，提振了從電商到諮詢等諸多其他服務的貿易。

Since then two striking shifts have taken place. First, financial globalisation has gone into reverse as nervous banks became more cautious in their lending after the crisis. MGI estimates that cross-border financial flows are 70 per cent lower than in 2007. Second, a dramatic expansion in digital communication has boosted trade in other services – from ecommerce to consultancy.

換句話說，過去跨境流動的往往是資金和低成本產品。如今，在互聯網的推動下，跨國流動的則是創意和服務。MGI估計，如今這種“知識密集型流動”的價值達到了驚人的12.6萬億美元，作爲參照，這個數字佔到跨國流動總規模的一半，相當於美國經濟規模的近五分之四。

Or to put it another way, whereas it used to be money and low-cost production that jumped across borders, now ideas and services are following suit courtesy of the internet. MGI estimates that these “knowledge intensive flows” are now worth a heady $12.6tn; to set this in context, this is half of all cross-border flows, and almost four-fifths the size of the US economy.

從某種意義上說，全球化的這種新特點看起來非常不錯。它可能幫助成百萬人脫貧，提高業務效率，降低消費者的消費成本，令企業家能發掘新的需求來源。而這一轉變存在的問題，則正如麥肯錫以輕描淡寫的語氣所暗示的，是“部分工人將面臨挑戰”。

In some senses this new twist to globalisation looks wonderful. It could lift millions out of poverty, make businesses more efficient, lower costs for consumers and enable entrepreneurs to tap new sources of demand. The rub, as McKinsey suggests with vast understatement, is that “some workers will be challenged”.

當然，不是所有西方工作崗位都面臨流失的風險。不過，隨着各種工作崗位被條碼和字節替代，社會分化日漸明顯。在美國等國家，一方面在頂層存在高技能、高薪的所謂“高尚”職位，另一方面在底層也存在低賤、低薪的所謂“劣等”崗位，中間階層則處於被擠壓的狀態。全球化的新面貌不但威脅到西方的製造業崗位，也威脅到了許多服務業崗位。

Of course not all western jobs are at risk. But as roles are replaced by bar codes and bytes, a bifurcation is under way. In countries such as the US there are the so-called “lovely” high-skilled, well-paid jobs at the top, and “lousy” low-paying menial jobs at the bottom – with the middle being squeezed. The new face of globalisation does not just threaten western manufacturing jobs, but many service jobs too.

當然，樂觀主義者可能會辯稱，這種轉變也會產生贏家。比如，永遠樂觀的麥肯錫就暗示，美國和德國等處於全球流動中心的國家將極大地受益，它們從中獲得的增長比那些全球化關聯度較低的地區高40%。這一情況對於擁有適當技能的公司和個人也同樣成立。

Of course, as an optimist might argue, this shift will also create winners. The perennially chirpy McKinsey suggests, for example, that countries at the centre of global flows – such as the US and Germany – will benefit hugely, reaping 40 per cent more growth than less connected areas. So will companies and individuals with the right skills.

不過，12.6萬億美元“知識密集型”流動正在全球造成動盪。難以應對這種動盪的世界，爲新一輪有關不平等的爭論提供了絕佳素材——即便（或者說尤其是）如今你能夠如此輕而易舉地在數字化網絡上買到皮凱蒂的書（甚至是直接買到此書的電子版），而根本不用與老式的書商打交道。