社會變遷 怎樣解決中國的污染問題

I visited China for the first time in nearly 20 years this past summer. Everyone talks about how much has changed, and it's true. There were mule-drawn carriages in the streets of central Beijing the last time I was there. Today, not so much.

時隔二十年之後，筆者在今年夏天再次來到中國。所有人都在討論中國發生的變化，事實也確實如此。筆者上一次來北京的時候，在市中心的大街上還可以看到騾子拉的車，如今這種交通工具在市中心幾乎已經銷聲匿跡。

What hasn't changed is the air pollution. In fact, it has gotten worse.

但有一點一直沒有變化，那就是空氣污染。實際上，北京的空氣質量正變得越來越糟糕。

How much worse? Fortune Magazine Editor Andy Serwer devoted his front-of-the-book essayto the Chinese air-pollution problem in the new issue of the magazine. His article, "A China crisis that's here," goes so far as to argue that the dirty air over China is a near-term political crisis for the country's new president Xi Jinping. (He includes some controversial digs at a Chinese government propaganda machine that's taking after U.S. icons like Apple and Starbucks in order to distract its own people.)

北京的空氣質量到底有多糟糕？在之前一期《財富》雜誌（Fortune）上，雜誌編輯蘇安迪發表了一篇關於中國空氣污染問題的卷首文章——《中國眼前的危機》（A China crisis that's here）。這篇文章甚至認爲，中國污濁的空氣已經成爲新一任國家領導人習近平近期急需解決的一次政治危機。

I agree that Xi faces a crisis over this. Chinese people are willing to put up with a lot, but they are hopping mad about the quality-of-life issue that is literally in their face every day. In fact, it's the one topic about which I asked everybody I met in June, when I traveled there for the Fortune Global Forum. How can the Chinese fix the problem and when will they? I asked.

我承認這確實是習近平所面臨的一次危機。中國人民或許能夠容忍許多不公平的待遇，但一旦遇到每天都要面對的生活質量問題，他們很難再抑制自己的怒火。事實上，今年六月，筆者前往北京參加《財富》全球論壇時，曾就空氣污染問題詢問過人們的意見。中國如何解決污染問題？什麼時候才能解決？

As you might have guessed, there isn't a simple answer. Indeed, tackling the question provokes a conundrum. The only certain way to fix the pollution quickly is to slow down the industrial economy, which would cause massive unemployment, which would cause civil unrest -- exactly the problem Serwer flags regarding the pollution.

大家或許能夠猜得到，這些問題不會有簡單的答案。實際上，解決這個問題將引發其他的難題。迅速解決污染問題的唯一辦法是放緩產業經濟發展速度，而這將造成大規模失業，進而引發民衆的不安——蘇安迪也曾提到過污染會導致這個問題的出現。

Not everyone sees it that way. "You don't need to fix it everywhere," says Ian Bremmer, who runs the global political-risk consulting firm Eurasia Group from New York. "What they really need to do, at least in the near term, is to address the problem in the most important cities, where people are coming in from out of the country and where there is a lot of media." To Bremmer, the air-pollution problem is a PR screw-up more than a national crisis. He argues that the quality of life is so low in much of China that what seems unacceptable to expatriates and visiting journalists simply isn't top-of-mind to the average Chinese citizen. "The comment that people wouldn't take their kids out in this pollution is overblown because they can't afford to take their kids out anyway," he says.

當然，也有人持不同意見。紐約全球政治風險諮詢公司歐亞集團（Eurasia Group）的負責人伊安?布萊默說：“中國不需要解決所有地方的污染問題。至少在近期，他們需要做的是解決最重要城市的問題。越來越多的人從農村涌入這些大城市，而且城市裏也有大量媒體。”布萊默認爲，空氣污染問題只是公關失誤，而不是一次全國性的危機。他認爲，中國許多地方的生活質量非常低，許多外派人員和駐華記者都難以接受的狀況普通中國人都已經習以爲常。他說：“有評論說在這種污染環境下，人們不敢帶孩子出門，其實這種說法有些誇大，因爲他們只是負擔不起帶孩子外出的開銷。”

Bremmer isn't saying pollution isn't a problem. He notes that 16 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world are in China, and that in the long term Chinese behavior is potentially disastrous. But for the time being, he says, it will be business as usual. "Nothing is a crisis in the making for Xi right now. He has 7.8% growth, he's charismatic, and he has a good team behind him. And the rest of the world is screwing up left and right."

布萊默的意思並不是說污染不是問題。他注意到，全球20個污染最嚴重的城市中有16個在中國。而且，從長期來看，中國的行爲將造成毀滅性的後果。但他表示，目前，一切仍會一如往常。“目前沒有任何事情能夠對習近平構成危機。他有7.8%的增長速度，他擁有超凡的個人魅力，而且，他背後還有一支優秀的團隊。而與此同時，世界其他地區卻是麻煩不斷。”

If Bremmer is right and Serwer is wrong, it makes for a fascinating study in contrasts. One country's people are relatively accepting about filthy air that threatens their lives. Another country's people are practically manning the barricades over a clunky web site that is supposed to improve their health. Go figure.

如果布萊默是正確的，而蘇安迪是錯誤的，這將是一個極好的對比研究案例。某個國家的人可以接受威脅生命的污濁空氣。而另外一個國家的人們卻在一個混亂的網站上展開論戰，希望提高他們的健康水平。真是令人費解。