北京不堪重負,中國應該遷都

SEVEN years ago Beijing’s government set a target of making the city a “liveable” one by 2020, with “fresh air and a beautiful environment”. Few praise its progress. Complaints abound about its congestion, pollution, desperate shortage of water and hugely expensive housing. Even in the state-controlled media, suggestions are sometimes made that it is time to build a new capital.

七年前，北京政府曾定下目標，要在2020年之前將北京建設成“空氣清新、環境優美”的“宜居城市”。至今這方面鮮有進展。相反，對於北京擁擠的交通、嚴重的污染、極度的缺水和比天高的房價，人們卻是怨聲載道。現在即使是國家控制的媒體也開始提出遷都的建議。

Beijing has been China’s capital for most of the past 600 years. Since the Communist victory in 1949, the Chinese have been taught to revere the city as an embodiment of China’s power, the party’s might and their country’s glorious history. To propose a move strikes many as heretical. In recent years, however, some have broken ranks. In 2000 even China’s then prime minister, Zhu Rongji, joined the sceptics. The capital, he declared, might have to move if measures to curb its sandstorms failed.

北京在過去600年的大部分時間裏一直是中國的首都。自從1949年共產黨勝利，中國人一直受到了某種引導，把北京尊爲中國國力、黨威和光輝歷史的象徵。對很多人來說，遷都這種提議簡直就是異端。然而最近幾年，終於有人發出了不同的聲音。2000年，中國當時的總理朱鎔基也加入了“異端”隊伍。他指出，如果沙塵暴問題不能得以妥善處理，遷都只是時間問題。

Since then officials have claimed some success in reducing the frequency of these lung-clogging calamities. But other problems have grown. Beijingers fed up with traffic gridlock sometimes pronounce the word shoudu, meaning capital, in a different tone so that it sounds like “the most congested”. For much of the year a grey blanket of pollutants shrouds the city. The rate of birth defects has doubled over the past decade. The environment is thought to be a contributory factor. Several scholars have suggested, in newspapers as well as online, that these and other problems would best be solved by relocating the central government.

從那時起，對這些簡直能使肺部堵塞的災害的治理開始初見成效。但與此同時，其他的問題也在滋長。受夠了交通大堵塞的北京人有時在說“首都”時，會故意換個調子說成“首堵”，諷刺北京是堵塞最嚴重的城市。一年裏多數時候，北京城都爲一層灰濛濛的污染物所籠罩。過去十年裏，北京的新生兒出生缺陷率增加了一倍。環境問題無疑是一個重要的影響因素。報紙和網上已經有好幾位學者提議，要解決這些問題以及很多其他的問題，最好的辦法就是遷都。

Yet apart from Mr Zhu, officials have kept quiet on the subject. Hu Xingdou of the Beijing Institute of Technology says there has been no official response to an open letter he wrote to the Chinese leadership in 2006. In it he suggested that the capital should be built anew in central China. Mr Hu says this position would have the advantage of being harder to attack (he sees Beijing as perilously exposed to assault from the sea). The building of a new and much smaller capital, he says, could also send a positive political message: that the party has turned its back on Beijing’s “feudal” past and embraced small government. Mr Hu proposes to call it Zhongjing, or “central capital” (Beijing means the northern one).

然而，除了朱鎔基，大部分的官員在此問題上都保持緘默。北京理工大學的胡星斗教授說他在2006年給中國政府寫了一封公開信，至今還未收到官方回覆。在這封信裏，他建議中國應該在中部地區擇地另建新都。胡教授說如果在華中建都，對防範外來襲擊較爲有利（他認爲北京容易受到來自海上的侵略)。他還說，新建一個更小的首都，也會發出一個積極的政治訊息：共產黨告別大北京“封建”的歷史，轉而擁抱小政府。胡教授主張把這個新首都叫做“中京”，意爲“中部的首都”（北京意爲北部的首都）。

Yuan Gang of Peking University describes Beijing as a city of “special privileges” that is literally sucking neighbouring regions dry. He says the billions of dollars now being spent to channel water from China’s south to the arid north around Beijing could have been better spent moving the capital to where the water is. The first of these diversion schemes is due to be launched next year, but the extra water provided will still be far from enough to satisfy Beijing’s demand. The resident population of Beijing, including its rural areas and satellite towns, reached 20m last year. Even with the increase in supply, the city would have adequate water resources only for a population of 18.3m, says the city’s Commission of Population and Family Planning (see chart).

北京大學教授袁剛認爲北京是一個擁有“特權”的城市，爲了自身的發展，毫不客氣地吸乾了周圍地區的水資源。中國政府現在正花費幾十億美元從南部調水，以緩解首都周圍乾旱的北部地區的水荒。袁教授說，把錢花在調水上，還不如用這筆錢直接把首都遷到水資源豐沛的地方。此次調水方案一期工程將於明年建成通水，但是它所提供的額外水源仍然遠不能滿足北京的需求。去年北京的常住人口，包括郊區和衛星城在內，達到了2000萬。北京市人口和計劃生育委員會的數據顯示，即使加上增加的外部供水，北京的水資源最多也只能支持1830萬人（見上圖）。

Beijing’s bureaucrats are unlikely to be persuaded. Their privileges, common to all those registered as Beijing citizens (ie, not migrants from other provinces), include readier access than most other Chinese have to some of the country’s best educational and medical facilities. Some local officials in places favoured by scholars as potential capital sites have been proclaiming their merits. But given the allure of Beijing’s amenities, it is little wonder that the central authorities keep quiet.

儘管如此，北京的官僚們還是不太可能被說動。他們和所有擁有北京戶口的居民（即非外省進京務工人員）一樣，享有各種特權，包括比其他地區的居民優先享有中國最好的教育和醫療設施。一些被學者們提名爲候選新都地址的城市已經開始爲自己做起了廣告。但北京的優越條件仍然具有無與倫比的吸引力，難怪中央政府對遷都的提議至今緘口不談。