關注社會:玉米價格與肉類企業股票

You don't only eat corn when you eat corn. It is an important input for milk, meat, packaged foods, soda, even gasoline. And a drought has severely compromised this year's US crop, threatening to send prices to new highs. Corn prices have surged from $6 a bushel in June to more than $8 now.

你不僅僅是在吃玉米時消耗玉米。玉米是生產牛奶、肉類、包裝食品、蘇打、甚至汽油的重要原料。一場乾旱已嚴重損害美國今年的收成，威脅把價格推向新高。玉米價格現在已從6月份的每蒲式耳(bushel)6美元飆升到逾8美元。

That is a big deal for a many companies. Most hedge exposure. Ethanol companies (which absorb 40 per cent of the total crop) can buy corn futures and sell them on ethanol or gasoline or contract for corn and ethanol in advance, locking in a certain amount of profit. They can also idle plants, as Valerohas. Meat producers (another third or more of the harvest) can lock in feed prices too. Chicken producer Sanderson Farmstypically buys feed only a few months in advance, in case prices go against it But as there is no futures market in chicken, it is harder to guarantee a margin.

這對很多公司來說是件大事。多數企業都進行了對衝操作。乙醇公司（吸收總收成的40%）可以購買玉米期貨，銷售乙醇或汽油期貨，或事先購買玉米和乙醇合同，以此鎖定一部分利潤。他們也可以閒置廠房，像瓦萊羅公司(Valero)所做的那樣。肉類生產商（另外逾三分之一的玉米消耗）也可以鎖定該飼料價格。雞肉生產商桑德森農場(Sanderson Farms)的一貫做法是，僅提前數月購買飼料，以防價格轉向。但因爲不存在雞肉期貨市場，所以更難保證利潤率。

The stakes are high. Sanderson reckons every 10 cent jump in the price of corn raises the cost of producing a pound of chicken by about a third of a penny. A $2 increase, like the one that just took place, adds about 7 cents to the cost per pound. Doesn't sound like much? Well, Sanderson's gross profit per pound in the second quarter, which ended in April, was about 8 cents (a 10 per cent margin). If corn prices stay high after the hedges roll off, and consumers resist increases, it will hurt. Sanderson's shares Fell by a fourth in the past three months. Fellow protein makers Smithfield, Tysonand JBS are beaten up also.

賭注很高。桑德森估計玉米價格每躍升10美分，生產一磅雞肉的成本就要增加三分之一美分。而如果上漲2美元，正如剛剛發生的那樣，將爲每磅雞肉成本增加約7美分。聽起來還不算多？嗯，桑德森在截至4月的第二季度每磅雞肉毛利潤爲大約8美分（利潤率爲10%）。如果玉米價格在對衝產品到期後仍維持高位，而消費者又拒絕漲價，公司利益就會受損。桑德森的股價在過去三個月下跌了四分之一。其他肉類生產商，如史密斯菲爾德(Smithfield)、泰森(Tyson)和潔百士(JBS)公司也都遭到打擊。

Droughts end. People like meat. Are protein stocks starting to look tasty? Whatever the hedge, these companies will eventually have to pass on higher corn prices by reducing overall supply and charging more as the drought is so bad. The question is whether short-term price spikes will affect consumers' appetite for meat long after the rains.

旱災總會結束。人們都愛吃肉。肉類企業的股票開始變得"可口"了嗎？不管怎麼對衝風險，這些公司最終都將通過削減整體供應量和提價來轉嫁更高的玉米價格，因爲這場旱災太糟糕了。問題是，短期價格的飆升，是否會影響到消費者在降雨恢復後很長一段時期內對肉類的食慾。