分析:中國就業市場出現壓力征兆

China's job market has started to show signs of stress, putting pressure on the government to intensify fiscal spending to prevent the economy from weakening further.

中國就業市場開始顯現承壓跡象，這給中國政府帶來壓力，要求其加大財政支出力度，以防經濟進一步走弱。

Like politicians the world over, Chinese leaders' biggest single economic worry is whether unemployment is under control, and analysts say the job outlook will help determine whether they launch a big stimulus effort as they did nearly four years ago.

與全世界的政界人士一樣，中國領導人最擔心的經濟問題是：失業是否在控制之下。分析師們表示，就業市場前景將是決定中國領導人會不會發起大規模刺激努力的因素之一。中國在將近4年前出臺過類似的大規模刺激。

So far, the labour market has held up much better than in late 2008 when 20m migrant workers lost their jobs.

與2008年末的情況（當時有2000萬農民工失去工作）相比，中國就業市場迄今的形勢仍要好出不少。

But cracks are appearing and that experience showed how the situation can change virtually overnight in China.

但裂縫正在顯現，而以往經驗顯示，中國的形勢幾乎可能在一夜間發生改變。

"Depending on how deep the growth slowdown is, unemployment can deteriorate very suddenly," said Ding Shuang, an economist with Citi.

"關鍵問題是增長放緩的幅度有多大，這將決定失業狀況是否會突然惡化，"花旗(Citi)經濟學家丁爽表示。

China, which publishes the bulk of its second-quarter economic data tomorrow, is expected to have grown about 7.5 per cent, its slowest pace in three years.

中國將在明日發佈第二季度的大部分經濟數據，預期該季度經濟增速爲7.5%，是三年來最慢的。

To arrest this slowdown, Wen Jiabao, premier, has vowed in recent days that the government will spearhead more investment projects and the central bank has cut interest rates twice in the past month.

爲遏制經濟增長放緩勢頭，中國總理溫家寶近日誓言，政府將上馬更多投資項目，而中國央行已在過去一個月裏兩次降息。

But getting a read on China's labour market is no easy task. Amid the blizzard of data released this week, there will be no reliable number equivalent to the unemployment rates published in Europe and the US.

但是，掌握中國就業市場的形勢並非易事。在本週發佈的大量數據中，並沒有類似於歐美髮布的失業率那樣的可靠數據。

This is because China's official jobless figure does not count the 200m migrant labourers who staff the factories and construction sites, and are the most vulnerable during a downturn.

這是因爲，中國的官方失業數據並不計入在工廠和建築工地勞動的2億農民工，這些人在經濟低迷時期最容易受到衝擊。

However, partial indicators and anecdotal evidence suggest job cuts are spreading and that it is getting tougher for workers to find jobs.

不過，部分指標和坊間證據表明，裁員正在擴散，勞動者找到就業崗位的難度正在加大。

First, China's purchasing managers' index, an important gauge of the manufacturing sector, pointed to a mild contraction in the number of jobs on offer last month.

首先，中國製造業的重要指標——採購經理指數(PMI)顯示，上月招工數量出現小幅收縮。

Second, a central bank survey showed that sentiment about employment prospects fell sharply in the second quarter, nearing its lowest since 2009.

其次，一項央行調查顯示，人們對於就業前景的信心在第二季度大幅下降，逼近2009年以來的最低點。

Finally, the human resources ministry estimated that the ratio of job openings to job seekers fell from 108 to 105 over the past three months. The implication is that there are still more jobs than would-be workers – a testament to China's remarkably tight labour market, a big frustration of companies in recent years – but that the tide may be turning.

最後，據中國人力資源和社會保障部估計，過去3個月招聘崗位與求職者人數的比率已從108:100降至105:100。這意味着就業崗位仍多於求職者（證明中國勞動力市場相當吃緊，近年來這讓企業頗爲頭疼），但勢頭可能正在逆轉。

Anecdotally, there have also been reports of mounting trouble, especially among the companies most exposed to the rapidly cooling property market.

坊間也有報道稱這方面的麻煩越來越大，尤其是那些直接面向正在快速降溫的房地產市場的企業。

Several of the country's largest heavy industrial companies have fired workers or implemented hiring freezes over the past several months, though they have been cautious over how they discuss the news.

中國多家大型重工企業已在過去幾個月裏裁員或凍結招聘，儘管它們在談到這方面的消息時表現得很謹慎。

Sany Heavy, China's biggest maker of construction equipment, insisted last week that it was not making any large-scale job cuts, though it was controlling the growth of its 51,000-strong workforce owing to the "slowing pace of development in the industry" in China.

中國最大的工程機械製造商三一重工(Sany Heavy)上週堅稱，它並沒有進行任何大規模裁員，而只是在控制其5.1萬人的員工隊伍的擴充步伐，原因是該行業發展速度放慢。

But an employee told the Financial Times that job cuts had been occurring in its manufacturing, sales and research divisions since last year.

但一名三一員工對英國《金融時報》表示，從去年起，三一在製造、銷售和研發部門都進行了裁員。

China's coal industry – the largest in the world and the backbone of the power sector – could also be heading for job cuts, according to traders.

交易商們表示，中國煤炭行業（全球規模最大，而且是中國電力工業的主要後盾）也可能迎來裁員。

"Some coal mines have started taking turns taking ‘holidays'," said a gloomy coal trader in Dalian. "If the situation continues, the coal industry will see job cuts."

"一些煤礦已開始輪流‘休假'，"大連一名悲觀的煤炭交易商表示。"如果這種形勢持續下去，煤炭行業將出現裁員。"

At Sinovel, the third-largest wind turbine maker in the world, employees who leave are not being replaced, and hundreds of new hires had their contracts cancelled in May before they had even started work, according to an employee who was not authorised to speak to the media. The company declined to comment.

在全球第三大風力發電機制造商華銳風電(Sinovel)，據一名沒有權限與媒體交談的員工透露，公司沒有安排新人接替離職的僱員，5月份，數百名新招聘的員工在尚未開始工作之前就被取消了勞動合同。華銳風電拒絕置評。

Workers at thousands of smaller companies in the construction sector are also feeling the pinch.

在建築業的成千上萬的中小企業，工人們也正感受到壓力。

On a recent sunny afternoon, a dozen men rested on cloth sacks packed with their belongings under a tree near Liuliqiao, a junction for migrants from the countryside who come to Beijing for work. But they were leaving the city, going back to their small patches of farmland.

在最近一個烈日高照的下午，十幾位男子坐在六裏橋附近的一棵樹下，靠在裝着自己衣物的布袋上。這裏是到北京來找工作的農民工的集散地。但這些人正要離開北京，返回家鄉照看自己的小塊農地。

One of them, a Mr Yang, said the group had been working on a 17-storey apartment building in Xianghe County, just outside Beijing, but construction had stopped and their wages were only half paid.

一名姓楊的男子表示，他們此前在北京邊上的香河縣一棟17層公寓樓的工地上工作，但這棟樓已經停建，他們只拿到一半工資。

"It's really not easy finding work this year, so I'm going to go home to look after the wheat and cotton," he said, sighing.

"今年找工作真的很不容易，所以我打算回家照看小麥和棉花，"他嘆口氣說道。