國際市場對油價預測出現巨大分歧
Hedge funds have placed one of their largest ever bets on a rally in oil prices, just as evidence mounts that energy companies are hunkering down for a delayed recovery.
對衝基金紛紛押注於油價上漲，規模已達到創紀錄水品。而越來越的證據顯示，能源企業則認爲油價反彈將姍姍來遲。Exchange data show hedge funds and other large speculators have accumulated a record-breaking number of North Sea Brent futures and options contracts equal to almost 265m barrels of oil — the equivalent of almost three days of global oil demand.
交易所數據顯示，對衝基金以及其他大型投機者累積了創紀錄的北海布倫特(Brent)原油期貨和期權合約，規模接近2.65億桶石油，相當於近3天的全球石油需求。
At the same time, oil producers and other physical market players have rushed to lock-in prices, selling forward more than half a billion Brent barrels in a bid to protect against future price falls. It is the highest level since the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) started publishing position data in early 2011.
與此同時，產油商和其他現貨市場參與者則紛紛鎖定價格，出售逾5億桶布倫特原油遠期合同，以規避未來油價下跌。這是自洲際交易所(Intercontinental Exchange)2011年初開始發佈交易頭寸數據以來的最高水平。
The split was clear this week at two major conferences on opposite sides of the Atlantic. Hedge fund managers, bankers and trading houses at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, were largely of the view that oil prices have bottomed. Brent hit a 2015 high above $65 a barrel on Thursday, having slumped to a five-year low near $45 a barrel in January.
這種分歧在本週歐美兩個大型會議上得到了明顯的體現。在洛桑舉行的英國《金融時報》全球大宗商品峯會(FT Commodities Global Summit)上，對衝基金經理、銀行家和交易機構多半認爲油價已觸底。布倫特原油價格在週四觸及每桶65美元的今年高點，而今年1月曾跌至每桶45美元的5年低點。At the same time in Houston, the chief executives of some of the world’s largest energy majors warned they expect prices to stay at lower levels even if the boom in US shale oil output begins to falter. US crude inventories stand at the highest level in 80 years and have risen for 15 consecutive weeks.
同時，在休斯敦，全球一些最大能源巨擘的首席執行官則警告稱，即便美國頁岩油產量熱潮開始消退，他們預測，油價也將保持在更低水平。美國原油庫存目前處於80年最高水平，已連續15周增加。The extreme division in the oil market may make prices more volatile as both sides try to predict how Opec’s attempt to recapture market share from higher cost producers plays out.
石油市場的兩種極端觀點可能會加大油價波動性。雙方都試圖預測石油輸出國組織(Opec，簡稱：歐佩克)將如何從成本較高的產油國那裏重新取得市場份額。Opec has increased production, since deciding not to cut output to support the oil price at its November meeting, focusing on shoring up its own share of the world market that had been hit by rising production outside the group.
在去年11月的會議上，歐佩克做出決定，不會通過減產來支撐油價，此後該組織一直在增加產量，以提高其在全球石油市場的佔有率。歐佩克以外地區石油產量的不斷增加侵蝕了歐佩克的市場份額。“That will translate into more volatility both upward and downward as you basically have a market that is forced to balance itself,” Yusuf Alireza, chief executive of commodity trader Noble Group told the FT Summit.
大宗商品交易商來寶集團(oble Group)首席執行官優素福•阿里雷扎(Yusuf Alireza)在英國《金融時報》全球大宗商品峯會上表示：“這將加劇油價的上下波動，從根本上來說，市場正被迫實現自我平衡。”While Brent hit its highest this year on Thursday, boosted by rising demand and Saudi Arabian-led air strikes on rebels in Yemen, the large hedge fund bet on Brent may pose a risk to further gains.
儘管受益於需求上升以及沙特阿拉伯領導的對也門叛亂分子的空中打擊，布倫特原油價格在週四觸及今年最高水平，但對衝基金鉅額押注於布倫特原油，可能會對油價進一步上漲構成風險。The previous record hedge fund position in Brent came in June last year as militants from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant advanced in Iraq — just before rising supplies in the market saw prices begin their near 60 per cent crash.
對衝基金上一次將創紀錄資金押注於布倫特原油是在去年6月，當時“伊拉克與黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, 簡稱Isis)武裝在伊拉克推進。但隨後很快，石油供應飆升導致油價暴跌近60%。
