地球資源是否真的即將告罄?

Is the Earth running out of minerals?

地球上的礦產資源是否即將告罄？

A recent and widely publicized proposal to mine asteroids for nickel, platinum and other key ingredients for metals is based in part on the notion that we face scarcity in the not-too-distant future.

一項在小行星上開採鎳、鉑和其他重要金屬元素的提議近期得到廣爲宣傳，該提議在一定程度上是基於這樣一種認識，即：在不遠的將來我們將面臨礦產資源短缺的局面。

How much is a matter of debate, as is the capacity of sonar, radar and drilling technology to find new resources - which may not match civilization's ever-growing appetite for metal-based products from replacement knee joints and oil pipes to catalytic converters and iPads.

至於資源缺口究竟有多大，目前人們的看法還存在分歧，同樣，人們對聲納、雷達和鑽探技術發現新資源能力的看法也不一致──地球上的資源可能無法滿足人類對膝關節假體、油管、催化轉換器和iPad等金屬產品不斷增長的需求。

Investors led by Google Inc. Chief Executive Larry Page and film director James Cameron in April launched Planetary Resources Inc., based in Bellevue, Wash., with a message that the Earth's resources could soon fail to meet the technological needs of a population spiraling toward 10 billion.

以谷歌(Google Inc.)首席執行長佩奇(Larry Page)和電影導演卡梅隆(James Cameron)爲首的投資者4月份在華盛頓州貝爾維尤(Bellevue)建立了太空採礦公司行星資源公司(Planetary Resources Inc.)。該公司的建立向人們傳遞了這樣一個信息：隨着世界人口逼近100億，地球上的資源可能很快就無法滿足人類的技術需求了。

Caterpillar Inc., one of the world's largest makers of mining equipment, has already joined with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to design space-mining gear. "We looked at autonomous operations of equipment as being the same type of technology that could be used on the moon as well as in a mining application," said Michele Blubaugh, manager of Intelligence Technology Services at Caterpillar.

全球最大的採礦設備生產商之一卡特彼勒公司(Caterpillar Inc.)已與美國國家航空航天局(National Aeronautics and Space Administration)聯手設計太空採礦裝置。卡特彼勒旗下Intelligence Technology Services主管布盧鮑(Michele Blubaugh)稱，“我們認爲設備自主操作技術既能應用於月球也能應用於採礦。”

But firms that make their money mining this planet say the Earth is one big, practically inexhaustible mine, with just as many unexplored corners as outer space. "We think there are 10,000 more years of minerals left for civilization," said Andrew McKenzie, a geologist and BHP Billiton PLC's chief executive for nonferrous metals. "Civilization will change, of course, and there will be different minerals involved, but 10,000 more years."

但在地球上採礦掙錢的公司則表示，地球是一個幾乎取之不盡的巨大礦山，地球上尚未開發的角落與外太空一樣多。地質學家、必和必拓(BHP Billiton PLC)有色金屬業務首席執行長麥肯齊(Andrew McKenzie)稱，“我們認爲地球上的礦產資源可供人類再使用一萬年以上。當然，人類文明會發生變化，會使用不同的礦物，但一萬多年是相當長的一段時間。”

Some minerals are more plentiful and some parts of the world more endowed. The world has plenty of potash - 610 years worth, which ensures centuries more of fertilizer-making, and 590 years of known iron-ore reserves, according to U.S. Geological Survey estimates. Overall, the earth has about 136 years of copper but just a small proportion of it in Australia, which could supply the planet for only a few years, according to the U.S.G.S.

無論是從種類和地理位置來看，全球礦產資源的分佈都是不均衡的。美國地質調查局(U.S. Geological Survey)估計，地球上有大量鉀鹽──可供人類使用610年，能確保未來多個世紀的化肥生產所需，此外，已知鐵礦石儲量可供人類使用590年。美國地質調查局稱，總體來看，地球上擁有可供人類使用約136年的銅資源，但其中僅有一小部分分佈在澳大利亞，只能再供地球使用幾年。而南美洲擁有的銅礦資源則佔全球剩餘銅儲量的一半左右。此外，這些數值是根據採礦公司列入具體開採計劃的儲量估算出來的──明顯低於埋藏在地殼內部的龐大儲量。

South America, on the other hand, has roughly half of all copper reserves left for global supply. And those estimates are of what mining companies have concrete plans to get at - numbers that are significantly lower than the colossal quantities of reserves buried in the Earth's crust.

按照化學家的說法，如果有人有興趣在海洋中採礦的話，那麼他們可以開採出1,000萬噸黃金，價值超過500萬億美元。二十世紀二十年代，德國化學家、諾貝爾獎得主哈伯(Fritz Haber)認爲，從海洋中開採到的黃金可能足以償還德國在第一次世界大戰中欠下的債務。不過他沒能成功說服政府去嘗試他的想法。

If anyone was interested in sifting the oceans, they could recover 10 million tons of gold, worth over $500 trillion, according to chemists. In the 1920s, German chemist Fritz Haber, a Nobel Prize winner, thought it possible to extract enough gold from oceans to pay his country's debt after World War I. He was unsuccessful at even convincing governments to try his idea.

總部位於加拿大安大略省薩德伯裏(Sudbury)的採礦公司HTX Minerals Corp.的首席執行長麥克萊恩(Scott McLean)稱，“很難想象人類將依靠太空中的小行星來滿足地球上的金屬需求。”他說，這個想法“很有意思，考慮這些問題是頗有遠見的，”但他的結論是：“地球的礦產資源取之不盡，還能供人類使用幾千年。”