中國商業航天夢即將成爲現實

Opinion: China’s Commercial Aerospace Dream Edges Closer To Reality

觀點：中國商業航天夢即將成爲現實

China’s commercial aerospace ambition has long been known, but a few recent milestones are bringing it closer to realization.

衆所周知中國一直在雄心勃勃地推進航天商業化，最近中國取得的進展正在將這一夢想轉爲現實。

Since the establishment of Avic 1 and Avic 2 in 1999, which really marked the beginning of China’s push into the commercial aerospace market, there has been no doubt about China’s intent and the direction it wants its industry to take. But the pace at which it would achieve this ambition was less uncertain. Almost 20 years on, things have become much more clear, and there is now little doubt that China is well on its way to succeeding where several other countries have failed in becoming a full-fledged player in the large commercial aircraft manufacturing sector, with the potential to disrupt the long-standing duopoly of Airbus and Boeing.

1999年中國航空工業第一、第二集團公司（之後兩者合併爲中國航空工業集團公司）的成立標誌着中國開始進軍商業航天領域，顯示了中國邁向這一行業的絕心與意志。但實現這一雄心的腳步並不那麼平坦。20年之後毫無疑問中國已經成爲了大型商用航天領域的成熟玩家，將其他幾國遠遠甩在身後，並有望打破空客和波音的長期壟斷。

To be fair though, no other country has ever had China’s assets: a stable government with an unequivocal, long-term financial and strategic commitment and a huge domestic—hence mostly captive—market. According to market forecasts, China’s domestic air traffic is expected to almost quadruple between now and 2036 to reach 1.6 billion passengers, which will be more than twice the U.S.’s domestic traffic by 2036.

實話說沒有其他國家能擁有中國那樣的優厚研究條件：一個有着長期明確財政支持和龐大國內市場的政府——儘管大部分市場並不自由。市場預計中國國內航空市場將在當前基礎上翻四倍，到2036年乘客總數將兩倍於美國，達到16億人次。

And while there is still a long way to go before airplanes designed and made in China compete on the world stage with the likes of the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320, the momentum is there, and the country’s aerospace industry is entering a new phase of development and maturity.

儘管中國在設計製造能與波音737或空客A320媲美的大飛機上仍有很長的路要走，但發展趨勢很顯著。中國航空工業正走向一個嶄新的發展階段並不斷邁向成熟。The first flight of the Comac C919. Credit: Comac

Most observers would think the single-aisle Comac C919’s first flight last May (pictured) is illustrative of this, but while it is a key milestone, it does not represent the whole story about what is happening in the industry. Two other events are much more telling.

大多數觀察家認爲去年五月首飛的單過道C919就是圖中這架飛機。儘管這是一項突破性進展，但它並不能完全代表中國航空工業的發展。其他兩個例子更有說服力。

The first is the establishment of the Aero Engine Corp. of China (AECC) last year, which consolidates Chinese aero-engine know-how and capabilities, indicating that the indigenous development of aircraft engines is now a strategic priority for China. This focus is even more striking when one realizes that China now has access to rhenium, a rare metal that helps create strong superalloys necessary for the manufacture of high-pressure jet engine turbine blades. Since the 2010 discovery in the Shaanxi province of reserves, which account for 7% of the world’s total, considerable effort has been made to exploit and process this metal. Moreover, a major technological milestone was recently achieved that opens the door for mass production of single-crystal turbine blades, a key component of modern jet engines. It is thus no surprise that one of the cornerstones of the newly established joint Sino-Russian widebody aircraft program is the development of a dedicated, state-of-the-art engine.

一，中國航空發動機集團的成立。去年集團公司通過研發提高了國產發動機的技術水平與續航能力，表明自主開發飛機發動機仍是當前中國的戰略重點。當中國獲得了錸，一種製造高壓噴氣發動機渦輪葉片的必須合金材料之後，這一決心更加顯著。2010年在陝西發現佔世界總儲量7%的錸礦後，中國已投入相當大的精力開採並應用這一金屬。此外，現代噴氣發動機的關鍵部件——大規模單晶渦輪葉片製造技術也取得了重大突破。新成立的中俄寬體客機項目至此有望用上國產發動機。

The second event of note is Comac’s latest round of financing—it raised 15 billion yuan ($2.3 billion) last month in the form of a 10-year debt investment plan—combined with the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed in June by Airbus and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The financing and MOU are intended to help bring about a fully developed, competitive domestic supply chain, the former through the injection of research and development money down the supply chain and the latter through the integration of Chinese suppliers in Airbus’s global supply network. The objective, as outlined in the “Made in China 2025” plan, is for Chinese suppliers to provide 80% of all parts by 2025.

二，7月與空客和國家發改委簽署諒解備忘錄後，上月份商飛以一份十年期債務投資計劃成功融資150億人民幣。融資和簽署備忘錄旨在幫助形成一個成熟的、有競爭力的國內供應鏈，前者通過注入研發資金，後者通過整合中國供應商在空中客車的全球供應網絡。“中國製造2015”計劃中提到，到2025年中國供應商有望能提供80%的飛機零部件。

Taken together, these events and strategic initiatives highlight the Chinese aerospace industry’s realization that, in order to become a globally competitive player, it will need depth as much as breadth. After getting their hands on both ends of the value chain—aircraft design and final assembly—the Chinese now understand that what will make or break their industry over the long term is what happens in the middle of the value chain, at the component and subsystem levels. And that is why China’s ambition to compete with Boeing and Airbus, as well as with GE and Rolls-Royce for aircraft engines, is now more credible than ever.

綜合考慮，這些事實與戰略規劃凸顯了中國航天工業的認知——爲了成爲有競爭力的全球飛機制造商，中國需要拓寬行業的廣度與深度。在他們掌握了價值鏈的兩端——飛機設計與集成組裝後，中國意識到長期處於價值鏈中游的組裝和子系統地位將摧毀他們的航空業。這就是爲什麼中國雄心勃勃地與波音、空客等飛機制造商以及美國通用電氣公司、勞斯萊斯等發動製造商競爭，形式前所未有地激烈。

By investing deep in the industrial fabric of the country, from the coastal cities of Tianjin and Shanghai to the new industrial frontiers of the Western provinces of Shaanxi and Sichuan, from the processing of rare metals to the manufacturing and assembly of complex aircraft parts, China is adding substance to formand showing the world that, as far as its commercial aerospace achievements are concerned, the best is yet to come.

通過投資深化該國工業結構，從傳統沿海城市天津和上海到最近崛起的西部工業城市陝西和四川，從稀有金屬開採加工到複雜飛機部件的製造組裝，中國正在爲該行業添磚加瓦，並向世界展示就其商業航天行業而言最好的時刻尚未到來。

Contributing columnist Antoine Gelain is the managing director of Paragon European Partners. He is based in London.

特約專欄作家安東尼·蓋爾恩是Paragon歐洲合作伙伴的常務董事。目前位於倫敦。