中國削減鋁產能舉措利好鋁價

China’s latest effort to curb air pollution is raising hopes for the global aluminium industry, adding fresh momentum to a rally that has left the base metal as the best performer this year.

中國發起的旨在遏制空氣污染的最新努力爲鋁價漲勢增添新的動力，從而給全球鋁行業帶來希望。鋁是今年表現最佳的基礎金屬。

Shares in global producers, including Alcoa, have surged this week following the circulation of a Chinese government order calling for curbs to production. Beijing’s focus on aluminium comes after government-ordered cuts to China’s coal output sent prices soaring last year.

美鋁(Alcoa)等全球生產商的股價本週飆升，此前中國政府下發一份指令要求限產。在把目光投向鋁之前，去年中國政府曾下令削減中國煤炭產量，使煤價飛漲。

The aluminium price has risen 15 per cent this year, outstripping nickel and copper on the London Metal Exchange, and is up 3.4 per cent over the past five days.

今年以來鋁價上漲了15%，在倫敦金屬交易所(LME)跑贏鎳和銅，而且僅在過去五天就上漲3.4%。

Almost 30 northern cities are set to cut aluminium capacity by more than 30 per cent to reduce air pollution during the winter season, according to an order issued by China’s environment industry and six local governments and seen by the Financial Times.

根據中國環保部和六個地方政府發佈、英國《金融時報》看到的一份文件，近30個北方城市將削減鋁產能30%以上，以減少冬季空氣污染。

“It is clear from the market reaction that investors see this news as a clear policy step towards long-term reduction in aluminium output from China,” analysts at Investec said. “A cut in output has long been needed in order to reduce production and, eventually, to reduce the enormous inventory overhang.”

“從市場反應看，顯然投資者認爲這個消息是一個明確的政策步驟，其目標是降低中國的長期鋁產量，”Investec分析師們表示，“產能早就應該削減，以降低產量，最終減輕巨大的庫存壓力。”

While the document did not specify when the cuts would come November is most likely, say analysts, who add that how effectively the cuts are carried out will determine whether aluminium’s rally can be sustained.

分析師們表示，儘管上述文件沒有指定何時削減，但最有可能的是11月。他們補充稱，落實去產能的到位程度，將決定鋁價漲勢能否持續。

China’s aluminium production has risen by about 2 per cent a month for the past six months, according to Grant Sporre, an analyst at Deutsche Bank. Inventory of the metal in China has also jumped 120 per cent since Chinese new year, he said.

德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)分析師格蘭特?斯波雷(Grant Sporre)表示，中國鋁產量在過去六個月期間每月增長約2%。他說，這種金屬在中國的庫存自農曆新年以來也躍升了120%。

“They [aluminium smelters] are quite difficult to ramp up and ramp down again, it’s not like a coal mine where you can stop the machinery and walk away,” Mr Sporre said. “I don’t know how it’s enforceable and practical to do it that way.”

“它們（鋁冶煉廠）很難增產和減產，這不像一個煤礦，你可以關掉機器走人，”斯波雷表示，“我不知道如何執行減產指令，在實踐中如何操作。”

Over the long-term any reductions to output in northern China could lead to production moving to lower-cost aluminium smelters in remoter regions, he added, potentially lowering China’s cost of production and making it even more competitive.

他補充說，長期來看，華北的產量下降可能導致生產轉移到偏遠地區的更低成本鋁冶煉廠，可能降低中國的生產成本，使其更具競爭力。

The orders for cuts were part of wide-ranging measures targeting coal boiler emissions and cement, steel and power plants to cut air pollution in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas. It also called for a 50 per cent reduction in steel capacity in certain regions.

減產指令是旨在減少京津冀和周邊地區空氣污染的廣泛措施的一部分，這些措施針對燃煤鍋爐排放以及水泥、鋼鐵和電廠。它還要求在某些地區減少50%的鋼鐵產能。

Provinces and city governments have to report every month on their progress, according to the document. The Ministry of Environmental Protection did not reply to telephone calls seeking comment.

按照文件，相關省市政府必須每月報告各自進展情況。環保部沒有答覆請求置評的電話。

Shares in US producer Alcoa have risen 10 per cent this week and are up 35 per cent this year.

美國生產商美鋁的股價本週上漲10%，今年以來累計上漲35%。

Century Aluminum has jumped 80 per cent this year. In Europe, shares in producer Norsk Hydro are up 20 per cent.

世紀鋁業(Century Aluminum)股價今年以來飆漲80%。在歐洲，鋁生產商挪威海德魯(Norsk Hydro)股價今年上漲20%。

Additional reporting by Peter Wells in Hong Kong.

彼得?韋爾斯(Peter Wells)香港補充報道