中國買房團撤離澳洲轉戰英國

Zhang Biao, a 32-year-old Chinese entrepreneur, has already thought about where his eight-year old will go to university. “We thought a flat overseas would be a good investment, and our son could use it for sixth form or university in Australia or the UK,” he says.

32歲的中國企業家張標（音譯）已經考慮了自己8歲大的兒子要去哪兒念大學。他說：“我們認爲在國外買套公寓將是一個很好的投資，而且等我們兒子在澳大利亞或英國念預科(sixth form)或大學時也能用得上。”

Mr Zhang and his wife put an offer down on a A$600,000 (US$460,000) flat in Melbourne in October, only to be told that they were no longer eligible for the 60 per cent loan-to-value mortgage they had applied for. Instead they decided to pay up front for a ￡120,000 flat in the English city of Liverpool.

去年10月，張標夫婦對墨爾本一套價值60萬澳元（合46萬美元）的公寓給出報價，但被告知他們不再有資格獲得此前申請的按揭成數爲60%的貸款。於是他們決定提前支付了英國利物浦的一套12萬英鎊的公寓。

Mr Zhang is one of a growing number of Chinese property investors switching their focus from Australia to other markets as regulators — eager to moderate rapidly rising prices amid fears of a bubble — have increased pressure on banks to curb Foreign lending.

越來越多的中國房地產投資者將目光從澳大利亞轉向其他市場，張標就是其中一員。在人們擔憂澳大利亞出現樓市泡沫之際，急於緩和快速上漲的房價的澳大利亞監管機構加大了對銀行的施壓，要求銀行抑制對外國人放貸。

This month, the Reserve Bank of Australia warned that residential building activity had been 50 per cent higher than long-term averages for two years and there was a risk that “newly completed apartments fail to settle”.

本月，澳大利亞央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)警告說，住宅建築活動已持續兩年比長期平均水平高出50%，且存在“新建住宅無人入住”的風險。

A sharp correction in the property market could tip Australia into its first recession in a quarter of century, analysts warn. Gross domestic product contracted in the third quarter by 0.6 per cent, although most economists expect economic growth should resume in the fourth quarter.

分析師們警告稱，房地產市場的大幅調整可能會使澳大利亞陷入25年來首次衰退。澳大利亞去年第三季度國內生產總值(GDP)出現0.6%的負增長，不過大多數經濟學家預計去年第四季度的經濟增長應該會恢復爲正值。

“We believe the [property market] correction will start with settlement problems for low quality apartments,” said broker CLSA in a recent report. “Our worst-case scenario would result in dwelling prices falling in all areas, eventually leading to a recession.”

香港券商里昂證券(CLSA)在近期一份報告中表示：“我們認爲澳洲房地產市場的調整將從低檔公寓入住問題開始。最糟情況下，這將導致所有地區住宅價格下跌，最終導致經濟衰退。”

The boom in foreign property investment has helped the Australian economy to continue growing despite sharp falls in mining investment. In 2014-15 Chinese investors were granted approval to spend A$24.3bn on property, more than three times the value of purchases from the US, the second largest group of foreign investors.

外國人對澳大利亞房地產投資的激增，一直幫助這個國家在礦業投資急劇下降的情況下經濟繼續增長。2014-15年度，中國投資者獲得批准的對澳房地產支出額達到243億澳元，是第二大外國投資者美國購買額的三倍以上。

The inflow of foreign capital helped push prices up in Sydney and Melbourne, the two biggest cities, by 67 per cent and 47 per cent respectively, over the past four and a half years. Foreign buyers account for one in five apartment sales.

過去四年半時間裏，外國資本的流入推動澳大利亞兩個最大城市悉尼和墨爾本的房價分別上漲了67%和47%。外國買家佔了住宅銷售的五分之一。

Now overseas demand is starting to weaken. Over the past two years the proportion of new property sales accounted for by foreign buyers in Australia has fallen from 16.8 per cent to 10.9 per cent.

現在海外需求開始減弱。過去兩年中，外國買家在澳大利亞新房銷售中所佔比例已從16.8%下降到10.9%。

This drop is particularly felt in the apartment market. Building approvals for apartments fell by a fifth in the year to end-December. Unit prices have begun to moderate in Melbourne and Brisbane, edging up by only 1.7 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively last year.

這一下降在公寓市場尤其明顯。截至去年12月底的一年裏，公寓的興建批准數量下降了五分之一。墨爾本和布里斯班的單價開始平緩，去年分別僅增長了1.7%和2.3%。

“Chinese buyers are increasingly nervous about Australia because of recent instability in regulation, tax and bank lending rules,” says Esther Yong, co-founder of ACproperty, a Chinese language property portal. “A lot of Chinese who bought apartments off-plan three years ago are now finding it difficult to find finance as Australian banks have blocked lending to foreign buyers.”

中文房地產門戶網站“澳洲家園網”(ACproperty)的聯合創始人Esther Yong表示：“由於近期監管、稅收和銀行貸款規則方面的不穩定，中國買家對投資澳大利亞越來越緊張。隨着澳大利亞銀行阻止對外國買家放貸，許多在三年前買了期房的中國人發現他們現在很難找到貸款。”

The big four Australian banks — NAB, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ANZ and Westpac — have all stopped issuing loans to non-resident borrowers with no domestic income. “We have essentially shut down mortgages to non-resident buyers,” Shayne Elliott, ANZ’s chief executive, told the Financial Times.

澳大利亞四大銀行——澳大利亞國民銀行(NAB)、澳大利亞聯邦銀行(CBA)、澳新銀行(ANZ)和西太平洋銀行(Westpac)，均已停止向沒有澳大利亞國內收入的非居民借款者發放貸款。澳新銀行首席執行官謝恩?埃利奧特(Shayne Elliott)向英國《金融時報》表示：“我們基本已停止向非居民買家發放抵押貸款。”

He said the apartment market in Melbourne was “a little bit concerning” due to the proliferation in the city centre of small apartments, some under 50 square metres in size and with no bedroom windows.

他說墨爾本的公寓市場“有點令人擔心”，因爲墨爾本市中心小公寓激增，其中部分公寓面積不足50平方米，臥室沒有窗戶。

The withdrawal of bank financing has forced some property developers to ramp up vendor financing, which can leave buyers exposed if prices then fall.

銀行停止放貸迫使一些房地產開發商加大賣方融資，如果房價之後下跌，這可能讓買家面臨風險。

Meriton, Australia’s biggest apartment builder, offers buyers two-year loans, providing them with some breathing space to find alternative financing.

澳大利亞最大公寓建築商Meriton爲購房者提供兩年期貸款，爲買家們尋找別的融資提供了一些喘息空間。

“Our loan book has doubled over the last 12 months to about A$120m as the rule changes have left some foreign buyers in limbo,” said James Sialepis, sales director at Meriton, Australia’s biggest apartment builder. Other developers have begun offering discounts and rental guarantees on some properties.

Meriton銷售總監詹姆斯?西亞萊皮什(James Sialepis)說：“我們的放貸規模在過去12個月翻了一番，達到1.2億澳元左右——由於規則改變，一些外國買家陷入困境。”其他開發商已開始對部分房產提供折扣或租賃擔保。

Increasingly, Chinese buyers are looking elsewhere. ACproperty recently teamed up with property listing company Listglobally, to launch a Mandarin language housing site called focused on other international markets.

越來越多的中國買家開始將目光轉向其他市場。澳洲家園網最近與提供房地產掛牌出售服務的Listglobally合作，推出專注於其他海外市場的中文房產網站“搜地產”()。

“Our agents in China have been asking us to supply them with properties in other countries,” said Ms Yong. She said the UK had become popular after the Brexit vote because the fall in the value of sterling had made it cheaper for Chinese buyers.

Esther Yong說：“我們在中國的代理人一直要求我們向他們提供其他國家的房地產。”她說英國在脫歐公投後開始變火，因爲英鎊貶值降低了中國買家的購房成本。

But Beijing’s tough new capital controls are making it more difficult to move large amounts of cash out of China. Foreign property investments by Chinese companies plunged by 84 per cent last month, according to the Chinese Ministry for Commerce.

但北京方面新的嚴格資本管制，加大了大量現金流出中國的難度。根據中國商務部數據，中國企業海外房地產投資在上個月同比暴跌84%。

“For some Chinese buyers who have family connections in Australia, they will continue to buy there. But for others without these specific reasons, they will look at other opportunities,” said Ms Yong.

Esther Yong說：“有些中國買家在澳大利亞有親戚，他們會繼續在那兒買房。但對於沒有這些特殊理由的其他人來說，他們會物色其他機會。”