強人世界的投資生存指南
So Brexit was not a historical accident after all.
到頭來，英國退歐被證明不是一個歷史意外。
The Trump victory seals it.
特朗普在美國大選中獲勝提供了確鑿證據。
A complacent, mainly urban liberal class, has been undone by a revolt.
自滿的、主要居住在城市的自由派階層被一場暴動搞得措手不及。
Nationalists are in charge of Washington and London now.
民族主義者如今控制着華盛頓和倫敦。
These strongmen and strongwomen will control borders, restrict the movement of labour and subject cross-border M&A to ever tighter public scrutiny tests.
這些強人和女強人將控制邊境、限制勞工流動、讓跨國收購接受更嚴苛的公共審查測試。
Security will come first.
安全將被列在第一位。
The twin freedoms of capital and labour movement are fading, secular relics from a passing liberal age.
資本流動自由和勞動力流動自由，成了正在落幕的自由派時代漸漸淡出的殘留物。
For those of us who have been investing professionally for the past 30 years, this new creed feels alien.
對於我們這些過去30年一直從事專業投資的人來說，這種新信條感覺十分陌生。
That, of course, is part of the message, and we have no choice but to adapt to it.
當然，這種陌生感是時代信息的一部分，我們別無選擇，只能適應。
The rules of the game are changing, and we have to change with it.
遊戲規則正在改變，我們不得不與時俱進。
The tendency of strongmen to use the state apparatus to conjure up growth will set our new course.
強人利用國家機器拔高增長的傾向，將決定我們的新路線。
The tedium of recent years, slow but steady growth, looks set to be dislodged by the seductive alchemy of a fiscally induced boom-bust cycle beloved by populists.
最近幾年的沉悶——緩慢但穩定的增長——似乎將被民粹主義所鍾愛、基於財政刺激的盛衰週期的誘人魔力趕走。
Supply-siders will happily urge us to believe it will be all self-funding, while an explosion in fiscal indebtedness looks the most immediate outcome of Trump economics.
供給學派政策的倡導者將拍拍胸脯讓我們放心：這一切將完全可持續，而與此同時財政負擔出現爆炸性增長看起來將是特朗普經濟學的最直接後果。
Spending on infrastructure, defence, with cuts in corporate and personal income tax, without any corresponding cuts in entitlements, will make everyone feel good for a while, apart from bond investors.
在基礎設施和國防上增加開支、同時削減企業和個人所得稅，而又不相應削減福利，這將使除債券投資者以外的所有人暫時感覺良好。
Trump has rarely had much time for them anyway.
特朗普向來沒把債券投資者放在眼裏。
So a US economic boom is almost certainly on its way.
因此，美國經濟繁榮差不多肯定會降臨。
Tight labour markets can become tighter.
勞動力市場緊張可能會愈演愈烈。
Household incomes can hopefully start to grow again after years of stagnation.
在經歷了多年停滯後，家庭收入有望再次開始增長。
Markets can fret about wage inflation, but general price increases will be slower to respond.
市場可能會因爲工資通脹而不安，但是整體價格上漲將以較慢步伐跟上。
There is ample spare capacity in markets for traded goods and services in the US and elsewhere.
美國及其他地區的可貿易商品和服務市場有充足的富餘產能。
Temporary dollar strength, salted with data-inspired Fed rate increases, will further temper the inflationary push.
美元暫時走強、外加美聯儲(Fed)以經濟數據爲依據的加息行動，將進一步緩和通脹壓力。
Trump’s promise of a free lunch will devour the savings glut that has suppressed real interest rates over the past two decades.
特朗普承諾的免費午餐將吞噬過剩儲蓄，過去20年過剩儲蓄一直抑制着實際利率。
Lunch can last longer than many will think.
午餐持續時間會超出很多人預期。
The repatriation of offshore US corporate balance sheets will help finance the good times.
海外美國企業資產負債表迴歸本土將爲美好時光提供資金支持。
The recycling of corporate balance sheets towards households is well overdue.
企業資產負債表早就應該循環流入家庭負債表。
Trump’s triumph heralds the early verdict.
特朗普的勝利預示着初步裁決。
Real interest rates will need to adjust to a new equilibrium, a sign of success.
實際利率將需要適應一種新的平衡狀態，這是成功跡象。
Equities, especially US equities, rally.
股市、特別是美國股市，大漲。
Wall Street bankers do quite well under Trump’s anti-establishment banner.
華爾街銀行家在特朗普反建制的旗幟下日子過得相當滋潤。
Meanwhile, the slow decay of the US fiscal position will take its time.
與此同時，美國財政狀態的緩慢惡化將需要很久纔會變得明顯。
It can await the company of an old friend: the trade deficit.
它可以期待一位老友的陪伴：貿易赤字。
The twin-deficit problem that troubled fiscal conservatives so in the 1980s can make its comeback.
在上世紀80年代令財政保守派不安的雙重赤字問題，可能會捲土重來。
Dr Henry Kaufman is poised for an Oscar-nominated return.
亨利.考夫曼博士(Dr Henry Kaufman)勢將像一個明星那樣閃亮迴歸。
Dr Doom, as he is fondly known, will remind us what this all ultimately means for interest rates and the dollar.
被親切稱爲末日博士(Dr Doom)的他將提醒我們，這一切最終對利率和美元意味着什麼。
The monthly trade data which once dominated the newswires, since usurped by the monthly employment report, can once again unnerve the dollar bulls.
曾經佔據新聞頭條的月度貿易數據（近年被月度就業報告取代）可能再次讓看漲美元的人緊張。
Populism and strong currencies are rarely seen together for long.
民粹主義和強勢貨幣很少會長時間共存。
The trade deficit will be blamed on others of course: currency manipulators, global outsourcing, the carry trade.
當然，貿易赤字的罪責將推給其他替罪羊：匯率操縱國、全球代工體系、套利交易。
Mexico, the first casualty of the new world order, is already feeling this pinch: its net exports to the US an irredeemable liability in a world unhinged from formal multilateral duties.
作爲世界新秩序的首個受害者，墨西哥已經感受到壓力：在脫離了正式多邊關稅協定的世界，墨西哥對美國的淨出口成了沒有可取之處的累贅。
The recent falls in its currency and stock market are ready reminders of what America First means, soon to be followed by China First, Japan First, France First and so on.
墨西哥最近的匯率下跌和股市走低提醒了人們美國優先意味着什麼，之後還很快會出現中國優先，日本優先，法國優先等等。
And so the immediate outlook for risk assets is favourable.
因此，風險資產的近期前景較爲良好。
The market action of recent days is a reasonable assessment of what lies ahead.
最近幾天的市場動態是對下一階段局面的合理評估。
Fiscal policy will be highly stimulative, drawing down on the global savings glut, pushing up growth and real interest rates everywhere.
財政政策將具有高度刺激性，拉低全球儲蓄率，推高世界各地的增長率和實際利率。
It will feel good for a while, and then the financial strains will emerge, and Dr Doom can make his untimely entrance.
人們在短期內將會感覺良好，之後將出現金融緊張，末日博士可能會不合時宜地重返舞臺。
