走運比優秀更好 光大證券的運氣

In few arenas is the cliché “it is better to be lucky than good” as apt as in financial markets.

幾乎沒有哪個領域比金融市場更適用“走運比優秀更好”這句陳詞濫調了。

Everbright Securities, which prices its Hong Kong listing today, may just have got lucky.

光大證券(Everbright Securities)或許就是走了運。它正在香港發行H股，預期定價日不晚於本週日。

Yesterday, shares in Hong Kong listed brokerages rose as much as a tenth, with Guotai Junan leading the way. The cause was reports that Shenzhen Connect, a scheme allowing overseas investors to buy shares in Shenzhen-listed stocks through Hong Kong, might soon launch. Everbright should benefit from this — and its Hong-Kong share offering already looks attractively priced.

昨日，在港上市券商的股價上漲高達十分之一，國泰君安(Guotai Junan)的漲幅最高。原因是有報道稱，讓海外投資者能夠通過香港買入深市股票的“深港通”(Shenzhen Connect)機制可能很快就要推出。光大證券應該能夠從中獲益，而且其H股的發行價本身就已經很誘人了。

The company already has a mainland-listed A share against which the H’s looks attractive. The proposed price range in Hong Kong of HK$11.80 to HK$13.26 puts it at a discount of at least a third. The dual-listing average is 20 per cent.

和光大證券已在內地上市的A股相比，其H股看起來很有吸引力。光大證券H股的發行價區間在每股11.8到13.26港元之間，相對A股折價至少三分之一。在內地和香港同時上市的公司的兩地股價差平均爲20%。

At the high end, the price multiple of 12 times 2017 consensus forecast earnings is reasonable, given earnings growth of 20 per cent. Between a half and three-quarters of the issue has been pre-sold.

按照最高發行價，光大證券H股以2017年普遍預期盈利（假設盈利增長率爲20%）計算的市盈率爲12倍，處於合理水平。此次發行有二分之一到四分之三的股份已被預先認購。

As China opens its capital markets, there is a lot of potential for growth in the financial services sector. Greenwich Associates notes that half of institutional commissions in Asia are paid for trading China and Hong Kong securities. Yet competition is fierce.

隨着中國開放資本市場，金融服務行業有很大的增長潛力。Greenwich Associates指出，亞洲的機構佣金中有一半都是爲交易中國和香港的證券支付的。然而競爭非常激烈。

Hong Kong has more than 100 firms offering brokerage services — both bulge bracket and local players — looking to benefit from the trend.

包括國際大投行和本土參與者在內，香港有超過100家機構提供券商服務，它們都希望從這一趨勢中得益。

The field is also crowded on the mainland. Everbright Securities is one of 125 local players. Activity is disbursed: the top 10 account for only half of Shanghai and Shenzhen trading volumes, Everbright says.

在內地，這個領域也同樣擁擠。光大證券是125家內地券商之一。這個市場非常分散：光大證券表示，前十大券商只佔滬深兩市交易量的一半。

Industry revenues, meanwhile, are still heavily dependent on equity markets. In the first half of this year, the top line halved. Most of that was due to commissions and proprietary trading, both of which plunged. Fee-generation services such as custody and advisory grew strongly, but even against shrunken equity market business, such divisions accounted for less than a third of the total.

同時，這個行業的收入仍非常依賴股市。今年上半年，行業收入減半，這在很大程度上要歸咎於佣金和自營交易——兩者都出現了暴跌。收取服務費的業務（如託管和諮詢）增長強勁，但即使是和縮水後的股市業務相比，這些業務在總收入中的佔比仍少於三分之一。

There is consolidation ahead, if the US is any guide. There, the top five banks earn two-fifths of trading commissions. Everbright, just outside China’s top 10 by revenue, ought to be an attractive morsel. But state-owned Everbright Group owns half of the company. It will not be for sale.

如果認爲美國的經驗有參照性，那麼可以說中國券商行業將迎來整合。在美國，排名前五的銀行賺取了五分之二的交易佣金。以收入計剛好排在中國券商前十以外的光大證券理應是一個誘人的整合對象。但國有的光大集團(Everbright Group)擁有光大證券一半的股份。光大證券是不會出售的。