中國遊客奢侈品消費退燒 威脅日本旅遊業

Tourist spending in Japan’s department stores has dropped for the first time since the start of Abenomics as the stronger yen and a tougher customs regime turn Chinese visitors away from gold watches and handbags and towards nappies and face cream.

在日元走強、中國關稅制度收緊，使得中國遊客從購買金錶和手提包轉向購買紙尿片和麪霜之際，國際遊客在日本百貨商店的支出出現自安倍經濟學啓動以來的首次下滑。

Fears are growing that the stronger currency, which has risen about 12 per cent since last summer, may now threaten a tourism boom that continues to produce record numbers of arrivals.

人們越來越擔心，日元走強（自去年夏天以來日元匯率已經上漲了約12%）如今可能威脅到旅遊業的繁榮，在這場旅遊業繁榮中，抵日遊客數量仍持續處於創紀錄水平。

Analysts say government plans to more than double tourism numbers and spending to 40m and ￥8tn ($73bn) respectively by 2020, are looking increasingly fragile and a prolonged phase of yen strength could even begin to hurt absolute tourism numbers when the floundering “Abenomics” programme needs them most.

日本政府計劃在2020年年底前讓遊客數量增加一倍、至4000萬人，讓遊客支出增加一倍、至8萬億日元（合730億美元）。分析師稱，該計劃似乎越來越難以實現，同時，日元的長期走強甚至可能在陷入困境的“安倍經濟學”最需要強勁的旅遊業數據之際，開始打擊旅遊業數據的絕對數值。

“The recovery in Japanese economic conditions will be extremely weak if inbound tourism falls off,” said Hiroshi Watanabe, an economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “It also exposes the limits of Abenomics which has been too reliant on the weaker yen.”

“如果入境遊客數量減少，日本經濟狀況的復甦將極度脆弱，”三井住友銀行日興證券(SMBC Nikko Securities)的經濟學家Hiroshi Watanabe稱，“這也暴露了安倍經濟學的侷限性——安倍經濟學一直太過依賴於弱勢日元。”

The April slump, which saw the most glamorous names in Japanese retail hit by a 9.3 per cent year-on-year fall in spending by foreign visitors, came despite a record surge in the overall number of tourist arrivals and a 7.8 per cent year-on-year rise in the numbers visiting Japan’s department stores.

4月，抵日國際遊客總數增幅創下紀錄，進入日本高檔百貨商店的國際遊客人數同比增長7.8%，然而即便在這種情況下，國際遊客對日本零售業知名品牌的支出依然同比下滑9.3%。

That paradox has led some retailers to fret that a long-dreaded moment has already arrived — the point where Chinese visitors, now representing a quarter of all arrivals to Japan so far in 2016, switch from being bulk acquirers to discriminating cherry-pickers.

這一看似矛盾的結果導致一些零售商擔心，他們長期以來一直害怕的時刻已經到來，這個時刻就是：中國遊客從掃貨式購物者轉變爲有識別能力的挑剔買家。今年迄今，中國遊客佔到抵日國際遊客總數的四分之一。

A significant factor, say analysts, is linked to the fact that an increasing proportion of Chinese visitors are now touring Japan for the second or third time. An additional drag on department store sales has been a newly toughened customs regime in China that was introduced in early April and aims to crack down on those returning with luxury goods to resell.

分析師稱，其中一個關鍵因素與這一情況有關——如今越來越多的中國遊客是第二次或第三次前往日本旅遊。4月初中國收緊關稅制度（旨在打擊那些購買奢侈品回中國再次銷售的代購），也對日本百貨商店銷售額構成額外打擊。

While luxury goods have suffered, though, Chinese tourist spending on cosmetics continues to be extremely robust. Oliver Matthew, a retail analyst at CLSA in Tokyo, said there was an “implied shift in purchase patterns”. Shiseido, a cosmetics maker which has been a standout winner from the tourism boom, raised its annual target for sales to foreign tourists 30 per cent to ￥34bn.

不過，儘管奢侈品銷售遭受打擊，中國遊客在化妝品方面的支出仍然極爲強勁。里昂證券(CLSA)駐東京的零售業分析師奧利弗•馬修(Oliver Matthew)稱，“購買模式出現了內在轉變”。化妝品製造商資生堂(Shiseido)一直是旅遊業繁榮中的顯著贏家，該公司已將對國際遊客的年銷售額目標上調了30%，至340億日元。

In April, Japan received more than 2m tourists — the most in a single month and more than twice the number that arrived in April 2013 when Shinzo Abe had recently become prime minister and his effort to revive the Japanese economy had just begun.

4月，日本接待了逾200萬遊客，創下單月記錄，比2013年4月安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)再次成爲日本首相後不久、其重振日本經濟的努力剛剛開始時的遊客人數多一倍以上。

The sustained weakness of the yen between 2013 and earlier this year had a resounding impact on tourism, making food and travel cheaper for tourists and briefly making the price of the most popular luxury goods lower than in Hong Kong.

日元從2013年到今年年初的持續疲軟，曾對旅遊業產生顯著影響，使得國際遊客在日本的餐飲和旅行成本降低，還曾使得一些最受歡迎的奢侈品在日本的價格短暫低於在香港的價格。