退歐將永久損害英國經濟 British government says EU exit would deal ￡36bn blow to its public
A British exit from the EU would cause “permanent damage” to the UK economy, cutting output by 6.2 per cent and blowing a ￡36bn hole in the public finances, finance minister George Osborne claimed yesterday.
英國財政大臣喬治•奧斯本(George Osborne，見上圖)昨日宣稱，英國退出歐盟(EU)將給英國經濟帶來“永久損害”，使經濟產出縮水6.2%，給公共財政帶來360億英鎊的缺口。
In the most significant day so far of the campaign for the June 23 referendum on EU membership, Mr Osborne sought to destroy the economic arguments for Brexit in a 200-page Treasury analysis of the impact of a Leave vote.
在爲6月23日就決定是否留在歐盟的全民公投所進行的宣傳活動中，奧斯本在迄今最重大的一天試圖用財政部一份分析英國退歐投票結果影響的200頁報告粉碎退歐的經濟論據。
With some polls showing the Remain and Leave camps running neck-and-neck, David Cameron’s government hopes to shift votes with a relentless focus on the alleged threat to growth and jobs of a British withdrawal.
鑑於一些民調結果顯示留歐陣營和退歐陣營勢均力敵，戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)領導的政府希望通過緊緊聚焦於其聲稱的英國退歐對增長和工作機會的威脅來拉票。
Mr Cameron is expected to receive further support for his campaign on Friday when Barack Obama arrives in London; the US president is expected to back Britain staying in the EU.
卡梅倫的宣傳努力有望在巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)週五抵達倫敦後獲得進一步的支持；預計美國總統將支持英國留在歐盟。
The Treasury paper claimed that an exit would lead to falling trade and would put a ￡36bn annual dent in the public finances, equivalent to 8p on the basic rate of income tax.
英國財政部的文件宣稱，英國退歐將導致貿易額下降，將使公共財政收入每年減少360億英鎊，相當於所得稅的基本稅率需要上調8個百分點。
Pro-Leave campaigners have accused the chancellor of scaremongering. But Mr Osborne insisted the Treasury’s analysis of the costs and benefits of EU membership was “serious and sober and conclusive”.
退歐陣營人士指責財相危言聳聽。但奧斯本堅稱，財政部對歐盟成員國身份的代價和收益分析是“嚴肅、冷靜和確鑿的”。
In the central scenario of a bilateral trade deal with the EU, similar to that negotiated with Canada, the economy would be 6.2 per cent smaller after 15 years than if Britain stayed in the EU, equating to ￡4,300 per household.
按照文件預測的核心情景，若英國和歐盟達成類似歐盟和加拿大談判的雙邊貿易協定，15年後英國經濟規模將比留歐情況下縮小6.2%，相當於每個家庭損失4300英鎊。
In a scenario where Britain falls back on its membership of the World Trade Organisation, the hit would be more severe with the economy up to 9.5 per cent smaller and households as much as ￡6,600 poorer, the Treasury calculated.
根據英國財政部的計算，若英國只能依靠其世界貿易組織(WTO)成員國身份，其受到的衝擊將更爲嚴重，經濟規模的縮水幅度將高達9.5%，每個家庭將蒙受高達6600英鎊的損失。
The idea of Britain negotiating a deal for full access to the European single market while not being an EU member was “complete fantasy”, Mr Osborne said. But Eurosceptics pointed out that if the economic consequences of a Brexit were so disastrous, it was odd that the prime minister should have put the choice to the British public
奧斯本表示，英國能夠在不作爲歐盟成員國的情況下談判獲得歐洲單一市場完全准入的想法是“徹頭徹尾的幻想”。但歐洲懷疑論者指出，如果英國退歐真的會帶來如此災難性的後果，首相把這個選擇權交給英國公衆豈不是很奇怪嗎？
Michael Gove, a pro-Brexit minister, will say today the Remain campaign “treats people like mere children, capable of being frightened into obedience”.
支持英國退歐的大臣邁克爾•戈夫(Michael Gove)今天將會說，留歐運動“把人民當做會因爲害怕而服從的孩子”。
