特朗普的經濟謬論 what Donald Trump gets wrong about China and US jobs

Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has built his presidential campaign on one main economic pillar: that the US economy — and its job market — has been decimated by competition from abroad and particularly an unfair trading relationship with China over the past 15 years. America has stopped “winning”, the businessman argues.

共和黨總統競選領跑者唐納德特朗普(Donald Trump)的競選活動基於一根主要的經濟支柱：過去15年，來自海外的競爭，尤其是與中國的不公平的貿易關係，令美國經濟及其就業市場受到嚴重削弱。這位商人聲稱，美國已不再是“贏家”。

It is a message that is calculated to target the blue collar voters who have borne the brunt of the impact on jobs and industry that came with the emergence of China as a trading superpower.

這條信息是有意向藍領選民發出的。隨着中國成爲貿易超級大國，美國的就業及工業都受到影響，首當其衝的便是藍領羣體。

But it is also an argument that looks increasingly out of date and at odds with the realities of the global economy and globalisation.

但這種論調似乎也越來越過時，而且不符合全球經濟與全球化的現實。

"We’re losing now over $500bn a year in terms of imbalance with China."

“我們現在一年在對華貿易逆差上要損失5000多億美元。”

Mr Trump is right that the US now runs a significant trade deficit with China, as it does with the world. In fact, the US last ran a trade surplus in 1975.

特朗普說得對，美國現在對中國貿易逆差顯著——正如美國對全世界的貿易逆差一樣。事實上，美國上一次出現貿易順差還是在1975年。

But increasingly trade economists argue that does not matter as much as it once did. Many believe it is the wrong measure of a country’s economy and that a trade deficit can actually be a sign of strength in an economy as it effectively shows consumers have the economic power and confidence to buy more goods than they sell.

但越來越多的貿易經濟學家認爲這個問題已經不像以前那麼重要了。許多人認爲以貿易逆差衡量一國之經濟並不正確，而且貿易逆差實際上是經濟實力的標誌，因爲它實際上顯示出消費者有經濟實力和信心去購買比本國對外銷售的商品更多的商品。

With supply chains having gone global and many manufactured products now assembled from parts drawn from many different countries the real question is who is drawing the most value from trade, as work done by the OECD and WTO has shown.

正如經合組織(OECD)和世貿組織(WTO)的研究顯示的，供應鏈已經變得全球化，現在許多製造品都是用來自多個國家的零件組裝的，所以真正的問題是：誰從貿易中獲利最多？

Services — ranging from financial services to embedded ones in your car such as your GPS or music service — also form an increasingly significant part of global trade. They are arguably the future. And in services the US has not had a trade deficit since 1970.

服務業也構成了全球貿易日益重要的一部分，其範圍大到金融服務，小到車內應用，比如GPS或音樂服務。可以說服務業代表着未來。而在服務業方面，美國自1970年以來沒出現過一次貿易逆差。

“We’re losing our jobs. We’re losing our base. We’re losing our manufacturing. We’re losing everything.”

“我們失去了就業機會。我們失去了基礎。我們失去了製造業。我們失去了一切。”

It is undeniable that US manufacturing does not employ as many people as it once did. But the number of manufacturing employees in the US peaked in 1979 when China was a long way from being an economic superpower. In fact, most economists argue that technology and the productivity revolution that came with it have in recent decades been as big a factor in US manufacturing job losses as globalisation or China. Plus the US has become a more sophisticated economy since the 1970s. Two sectors alone — health and education — have since 1979 created more than twice as many jobs as have been lost in manufacturing.

不可否認美國製造業僱傭的人不如以前那麼多。但美國製造業就業人數在1979年達到頂峯時，中國離經濟大國還差得很遠。事實上，大多數經濟學家認爲，近幾十年來，對於美國製造業工作崗位的流失，技術創新以及隨之而來的生產力革命是與全球化或中國崛起同等重要的原因。而且自1970年代以來，美國經濟已經變得更加複雜，僅衛生和教育這兩塊1979年以來所創造的就業機會就是製造業失去的兩倍以上。

“It’s not going to happen with me. We’re going to keep our businesses here.”

“我不會讓這種事發生的。我們要把我們的生意留在美國。”

There is no doubt that the US has seen many of its manufacturing jobs move to China as that country has emerged as a trade powerhouse. Economist David Autor and his co-authors have in recent years documented what they say are the 2m-2.4m manufacturing and associated US jobs lost to competition with China.

毫無疑問，隨着中國成爲一個貿易強國，美國製造業的許多就業機會都轉移到了中國。經濟學家戴維奧托爾(David Autor)與其合著者近年來寫道，在中國的競爭下，美國流失了200萬到240萬個製造業及相關工作崗位。

That has been a devastating blow to many blue collar communities in the US and is unrivalled as a shock in modern economic history, Mr Autor says.

奧托爾說，這對美國許多藍領羣體造成了毀滅性打擊，嚴重程度在現代經濟史上是絕無僅有的。

But it is also largely in the past. In recent years a new trend has been emerging. Thanks to rising costs in China, lower energy prices, technological advances and the simple size of the US market both domestic and foreign companies have begun investing more heavily in US manufacturing facilities. These days it is Chinese heavy industry where the job losses are happening.

但這基本也是過去的事。近年來已出現一種新的趨勢，由於中國製造業成本上升，再加上能源價格下降、技術進步以及美國市場的龐大規模，美國國內外企業都開始加大對美國製造業設施的投資。現階段，正在進行裁員的其實是中國的重工業。

According to the non-profit Reshoring Initiative, which collects data on companies bringing jobs back to the US, foreign direct investment and reshoring have accounted for more than 200,000 new jobs in the US in the past five years. According to Harry Moser, the group’s founder, in recent years the number of jobs created by reshoring has begun to outpace the number of jobs being sent overseas. And to many that looks like the beginning of a longer-term trend.

根據非盈利組織Reshoring Initiative收集的將工作機會帶回美國的企業的數據，過去5年外國直接投資和產業迴流爲美國創造了超過20萬個新增崗位。該組織創始人哈利莫澤(Harry Moser)表示，近年來產業迴流所創造就業崗位數量已開始超過流失到海外的工作數量。而且許多人認爲這是個長期趨勢的開端。

China is also an important export market for the US and the number of jobs associated with exports to China has been rising steadily. In fact, according to the commerce department exports to China now support almost 1m jobs in the US and they have been the fastest growing of any major trading partner with more than 350,000 new jobs supported by exports to China between 2009 and 2014.

中國也是美國的一個重要出口市場，對華出口相關就業人數一直在穩步上升。事實上，根據美國商務部的數據，對華出口現在爲美國提供了近100萬就業機會，而且在美國主要貿易伙伴中一直增長最快，2009年到2014年間，對華出口提供了超過35萬個新增崗位。

“Now I’m going to get consensus from Congress and we’re going to tax you . . . So stay where you are [in Mexico] or build in the United States.”

“我現在要取得國會共識，我們要向你們徵稅……所以要麼留在那兒（墨西哥），要麼好好建設美國。”

One of the biggest corporate targets of Mr Trump’s stump speeches is Carrier, the air conditioning manufacturer. It announced earlier this year that it was moving 1,400 jobs from Indiana to Mexico as part of an effort to remain competitive and drew widespread public scorn when a video of the announcement to factory workers went viral.

特朗普政治演說針對的最大企業目標之一就是空調製造商開利(Carrier)。今年早些時候該公司宣佈，爲保持競爭力，要將印第安納州的1400個工作崗位轉移到墨西哥。該公司向工廠員工宣佈此項決定的視頻在網上瘋傳，招致公衆一片噓聲。

No one wants to lose their job. But it is worth putting the Carrier job losses in perspective. They amount to 0.3 per cent of the 520,000 people working in manufacturing in Indiana in January of this year.

沒人想失去工作，但應從更大的視角看待開利裁員事件。截至今年1月，印第安納州製造業共有52萬名工人，開利裁員人數僅佔其中0.3%。

Indiana, like many rust belt states, was hit hard by the 2008 crisis and recession. But since 2010 it has also added almost 100,000 manufacturing jobs.

像許多“鏽帶”州一樣，印第安納州也受到2008年危機和經濟衰退的重創。但自2010年以來，該州已增加了近10萬個製造業崗位。