IMF官員 應警惕新平庸增長

As the International Monetary Fund’s watchdog, José Viñals has spent many sleepless nights since he took up his post in 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis.

作爲國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)負責監管的官員，何塞•比尼亞爾斯(José Viñals)自2009年全球金融危機爆發後上任以來，度過了很多不眠之夜。

But even though the IMF’s latest financial stability report sets out growing risks on several fronts, Mr Viñals is resting easier than in the past — because, he says, the world is now better prepared for such challenges.

但是，即便IMF最新的《金融穩定報告》(Global Financial Stability Report)指出多個領域存在日益加劇的風險，比尼亞爾斯如今也比之前睡得更好了，這是因爲，他稱，全球如今對此類挑戰準備得更充分了。

“When I came [to the IMF], and for a few years after that, I wasn’t sleeping so well at night,” the former Spanish central banker said in an interview.

“在我來（IMF）時，以及之後幾年時間內，我晚上都睡不大好，”這位西班牙央行前行長在接受採訪時表示。

“Now I still wake up once in a while but that’s all.”

“現在我仍然偶爾夜裏會醒，但僅此而已。”

The risks outlined by the fund’s semi-annual Global Financial Stability Report, released yesterday, range from slow growth and weak commodity prices to concerns about the health of European banks and worsening Chinese corporate balance sheets.

IMF昨日發佈的《全球金融穩定報告》勾勒出一系列風險，從增長放緩、大宗商品價格低迷，到有關歐洲銀行業健康狀況以及中國企業資產負債表狀況日益惡化的擔憂。IMF的《全球金融穩定報告》每半年發佈一次。

The report hammers home the IMF’s call for governments to step up their response to such problems or to risk losing the markets’ confidence, as already seemingly occurred earlier this year.

該報告極力強調，IMF呼籲各國政府加強應對此類問題，否則可能失去市場信心，就像今年早些時候似乎已經出現的情況一樣。

But Mr Viñals, director of the fund’s monetary and capital markets department, argued that the world is not facing the threat of a replay of the 2008 financial crisis. The challenge is instead to avoid the lacklustre rates of growth he and others at the fund label the “new mediocre”.

但是，主管IMF貨幣和資本市場部門的比尼亞爾斯認爲，全球如今並未面臨2008年金融危機重演的威脅。相反，挑戰在於避免出現經濟增長乏力的情況，比尼亞爾斯及IMF其他官員將之定義爲“新平庸”。

He added: “Yes, there are risks and there is work to do.

他補充稱：“沒錯，現在確實有風險，也有工作要做。

“But let’s not lose sight that a lot of work has been done and that the global financial system is a lot more resilient than it used to be. Everywhere.”

“但是，不要忽視我們已經完成許多工作，此外全球金融體系抵禦衝擊的能力比過去強得多。世界各地都是這樣。”

China is beginning to address concerns over its corporate debt problems, emerging markets more generally are preparing for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again and Italy is finding new ways to support its banks.

中國已開始應對外界對其公司債務問題的關切，整個新興市場正在爲美聯儲(Fed)再次加息做準備，同時意大利正在尋找支撐其銀行業的新辦法。

“We’re not talking about the world being on the verge of another crisis, not at all,” Mr Viñals said.

“我們並不是在說全球即將迎來另一場危機，完全不是，”比尼亞爾斯稱。

“What we’re talking about is that there is a chance that can be avoided, that should be avoided, of falling into this new mediocre growth which is not good for anybody. Fortunately we are not there. But we don’t want to get there, which is why action is needed now.”

“我們在說的是，有可能、也應該避免一場導致世界陷入這種新平庸增長的危機，這樣的增長對任何人都沒有好處。幸運的是，我們現在並未落入那種局面。但是我們不希望局勢發展到那一步，因此現在需要採取行動。”

Mr Viñals said this year’s financial turmoil in both developed and emerging economies — which he describes as a “perfect storm” — served as a reminder of the cost of not addressing concerns that have lingered on eight years after the financial crisis.

比尼亞爾斯稱，今年發達經濟體和發展中經濟體均出現的金融動盪（他形容這場金融動盪爲“完美風暴”）提醒了大家，不應對這些在金融危機爆發8年後依然存在的擔憂，會導致怎樣的代價。

The latest financial stability report seeks to calculate the cost of such potential neglect. It sets out a scenario in which government inaction contributes to a 20 per cent fall in global equity markets over two years as current levels of slow growth become entrenched.

最新的這份《金融穩定報告》力圖計算出這種潛在忽視的代價。報告設定了一種情景：政府不作爲會導致全球股市在兩年時間內下跌20%，目前這種低增長水平還會變得根深蒂固。

It estimates that such an episode would have a cumulative cost of 3.9 per cent of global output — the equivalent of more than a year of growth.

它估計，這種情況將累計造成全球經濟產出損失3.9%——相當於比一年的增長值還多。

Some of the numbers in the IMF report are particularly daunting. By the fund’s calculations 14 per cent of China’s corporate debt — some $1.3tn — is owed by companies that earn less each year than they need to make their interest payments.

此份報告的一些數據令人格外沮喪。根據IMF的計算，中國公司債務——約1.3萬億美元——的14%是由每年營收不足以支付利息的企業所欠。

That figure has grown substantially over the past five years and, were Chinese banks forced to absorb the loss from all those loans going bad, it would be a hit equivalent to 7 per cent of gross domestic product. But Beijing is beginning to address the problem by encouraging debt-for-equity swaps and other measures, Mr Viñals said, and has plenty of capacity to do so. The risk is “manageable, but it needs to be managed properly”.

過去五年，該比例大幅增長，如果中國的銀行被迫要承擔所有不良貸款的損失，這將相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的7%。但是，比尼亞爾斯稱，北京方面已經開始鼓勵通過債轉股等措施解決該問題，並且有足夠能力這樣做。風險“可控，但是需要妥善處理”。

Mr Viñals also suggested that the US Federal Reserve’s plans to raise rates are less of a concern for global financial stability than they were last year, ahead of the Fed’s first increase for almost a decade.

比尼亞爾斯還表示，今年美聯儲的加息計劃對全球金融穩定的影響低於去年該行加息之前。美聯儲去年的加息是該行近十年來的首次。

That, he said, is largely thanks to the Fed’s better communications in the lead-up to the move. But many emerging economies had also adjusted, by moving to floating exchange regimes and building up their capital buffers, and are better prepared for the potential impact, he said.

他表示，這主要歸功於美聯儲在採取行動之前更好地進行溝通。不過，他稱，很多新興經濟體也已經通過採取浮動匯率制度以及鞏固資本緩衝墊進行了調整，對美聯儲加息的衝擊準備得更充分了。

“I think the taper tantrum was something that was very useful for everyone to learn,” Mr Viñals added, referring to the 2013 market ructions many emerging economies endured after the Fed unveiled plans to reel in its large scale asset purchases.

比尼亞爾斯還表示，“我認爲‘削減恐慌’(taper tantrum)非常值得每個人學習。”他指的是，2013年美聯儲宣佈逐步退出大規模資產購買的計劃後，很多新興經濟體經歷的市場動盪。

He is also relatively sanguine about the potential impact of negative interest rates by central banks in Europe and Japan, despite criticism that such policies may undermine consumer spending and damage banks’ profitability.

他對歐洲和日本央行實行的負利率的潛在影響也相對樂觀，儘管有批評稱此類政策可能削弱消費者支出並損害銀行業的盈利能力。

“Although the experience of negative nominal interest rates is short, overall they help deliver additional monetary stimulus and easier financial conditions, which support demand and price stability,” Mr Viñals said.

“儘管負名義利率實施的時間較短，但是總體來看，它們有助於提供額外的貨幣刺激、放寬資金狀況，這爲需求和穩定的價格提供了支撐，”比尼亞爾斯表示。

“Even if there are limits on how far and for how long negative policy rates can go, I still believe that they are a net positive for the economy.”

“儘管負政策利率的下調空間和持續時間都存在限度，但我仍然認爲負利率對經濟利大於弊。”