林田英治 鋼鐵行業已經見底 Steel industry braces for slow recovery from crisis

A full recovery from the worst ever crisis for the global steel industry may take as long as five years, says the head of Japan’s second-largest steelmaker, who is predicting an acceleration in industry-wide consolidation.

日本第二大鋼鐵企業日本鋼鐵工程控股(JFE Holdings)社長林田英治(Eiji Hayashida)表示，全球鋼鐵業要想從有史以來最嚴重的危機中全面復甦，可能需要長達五年時間。他還預言全行業整合將會加速。

Eiji Hayashida, chief executive of JFE Holdings, said market conditions are expected to improve after China started to shut down steel factories to address excess industrial capacity.

林田英治表示，中國爲解決過剩產能開始關閉鋼廠後，市場狀況有望改善。

But he said it was premature to assume a recent short-term rise in Chinese steel prices would lead to an immediate recovery in global demand. Chinese mills have been accused of compounding sluggish demand by dumping surplus steel on to international markets.

但他表示，就此斷言近期中國鋼價的短期上漲將引領全球需求立即恢復，還爲時過早。中國鋼廠一直被指責通過向國際市場傾銷過剩鋼鐵，加重了需求低迷。

“I think what we are seeing now is the bottom and things will not get worse,” Mr Hayashida said in an interview. “But the problem (in China) cannot be resolved in one to two years. It will take three to five years for the situation to considerably improve.”

林田英治接受採訪時表示：“我認爲現在形勢已經到達底部，情況不會變得更糟。但（中國的）問題一兩年內是解決不了的，情況大幅改善需要三至五年時間。”

A global glut made steel cheaper last year than at any other point in the past decade, weighing heavily on earnings at other big producers such as ArcelorMittal, US Steel and South Korea’s Posco.

全球供過於求導致鋼材價格去年降至十年來最低點，對安賽樂米塔爾(ArcelorMittal)、美國鋼鐵公司(US Steel)、韓國浦項制鐵(Posco)等其他大型鋼企的盈利造成沉重打擊。

In Japan, the world’s second-biggest producer of steel, a focus on higher-value steel in smaller volumes has helped shield companies such as JFE Holdings from an influx of typically lower-grade and commoditised steel from emerging markets.

日本是全球第二大鋼鐵生產國，由於專注於少量生產高附加值鋼材，日本鋼鐵工程控股等企業沒有受到從新興市場涌入的通常品質較低、大宗商品化的鋼材的衝擊。

Yet even Japanese players are still under pressure. Kobe Steel — which makes Kobelco cranes and diggers as well as metals — is anticipating an annual net loss of Y20bn ($176m) while JFE Holdings halved its net profit forecast to Y25bn for the fiscal year ending in March.

但即使是日本企業也感受到了壓力。神戶制鋼(Kobe Steel)預測年度淨虧損200億日元（合1.76億美元），其旗下產品包括神鋼(Kobelco)起重機、挖掘機和金屬製品。日本鋼鐵工程控股將截至今年3月的財年的淨利潤預測減半至250億日元。

Last month, Japan’s biggest steelmaker, Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal, said it would buy domestic stainless steel producer Nisshin Steel as it seeks scale to weather the global downturn.

上個月，日本最大的鋼鐵企業新日鐵住金(Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal)表示將收購國內不鏽鋼生產商日新制鋼(Nisshin Steel)，以擴大規模，抵禦全球鋼鐵業下滑。

“What we are seeing today is probably close to the worst-ever crisis for the steel industry,” Mr Hayashida said, comparing the current situation to the global slump in the wake of the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s.

林田英治表示：“我們現在見到的很可能接近鋼鐵行業有史以來最嚴重的危機。”他將當前形勢與20世紀90年代末亞洲金融危機後的全球鋼鐵業跳水作比。

What differentiates 2016 from 15 years ago is the focus on higher-value products, which include high-strength steels used in automotive industries, deeper cost-cutting efforts and a stronger balance sheet. Mr Hayashida said such improvements have allowed the company to step up spending to renew ageing facilities despite a deterioration in earnings.

但2016年與15年前的不同之處，在於注重高附加值產品（包括用於汽車行業的高強度鋼材）、進一步的成本削減和更強大的資產負債表。林田英治表示在這些改進的幫助下，雖然公司盈利在下降，但依然增加了對老化設施更新的投入。

With the Japanese steel industry now consolidated to three major players, Mr Hayashida said he wants to seek investments and technology alliances with global players. Despite the recent downturn, JFE Holdings is counting on growth in other parts of Asia and emerging markets to drive demand for steel used in cars and infrastructure.

林田英治表示，隨着日本鋼鐵業現在整合成三大主要企業，他希望在全球範圍內尋求投資和技術聯盟夥伴。儘管近期鋼鐵行業低迷，但日本鋼鐵工程控股依然期待亞洲其他地區及新興市場能帶動汽車及基礎設施使用鋼鐵的需求。

“We expect an acceleration in industry-wide realignment and mergers. We are not ruling anything out,” he added.

他表示：“我們預計全行業的重組和合並將會加速。我們不排除任何可能性。”

The company already has a high proportion of exports to South Korea, China and Thailand. In 2010, JFE Holdings acquired a 15 per cent stake in India’s JSW Steel to gain a foothold in one of the world’s fastest growing automobile markets.

日本鋼鐵工程控股對韓國、中國和泰國的出口比例已經很高。2010年，該公司收購了印度京德勒西南鋼鐵公司(JSW Steel)的15%股份，在這個增速位居全球前列的汽車市場獲得了立足點。