美聯儲明年最多可能加息四次 Economists see up to 4 more Fed rises following Wednesday's ex

The Federal Reserve is set to follow a much-anticipated interest rate rise this week with two to four more increases next year, leading economists say.

領先經濟學家們表示，美聯儲(Fed)在本週備受期待的加息之後，明年還會有兩到四次加息。

Markets are bracing themselves for the first US rate rise in almost 10 years on Wednesday. A Financial Times poll of 51 top economists highlights the stakes as any increase would have profound consequences for the world economy, particularly emerging markets.

市場正準備迎接本週三美國近10年來的首次加息。英國《金融時報》對51名頂級經濟學家的調查突顯出這次加息事關重大，因爲任何加息都將對世界（尤其是新興市場）經濟產生深遠影響。

While the Fed’s previous September forecasts pointed to four rises of a cumulative 100 basis points next year, markets have priced in a more gradual tightening process, because of doubts over the US economy’s capacity to weather tighter monetary policy and potential turbulence abroad.

儘管美聯儲在之前的9月預測中指出，明年將會進行4次、累計100個基點的加息，但由於懷疑美國經濟承受緊縮後貨幣政策以及國外潛在動盪局勢的能力，市場計入更爲漸進的緊縮進程。

Chinese officials have acknowledged Fed rises would increase pressure on the renminbi and contribute to outward flows of capital, an outlook shared by many other developing economies. The European Central Bank’s chief economist, meanwhile, told the FT his institution stood ready to respond if the Fed’s actions increase global borrowing costs.

中國官員承認，美聯儲加息將會讓人民幣承壓，加劇資本外流，其他許多發展中經濟體也有同樣預期。與此同時，歐洲央行(ECB)的首席經濟學家向英國《金融時報》表示，如果美聯儲加息增加了全球借貸成本，歐洲央行準備做出迴應。

The Fed has gone to great lengths to prepare the markets for a quarter-point rise at this week’s meeting — a move expected by all but one of the economists surveyed. But there is no such consensus over how high interest rates will ultimately go.

美聯儲竭力讓市場爲本週會議加息25個基點做好準備——受訪經濟學家幾乎全都預計美聯儲本次將加息25個基點，只有一人例外。但關於最終加息到多高的利率，各方沒有這樣的共識。

Among those polled, 24 per cent expected two rises next year of 25 basis points each, 39 per cent expected three rises and 30 per cent forecast four rises. Overall, the median projection in the FT poll is for the Fed to lift rates by 75 basis points in 2016 and a further 100 in 2017.

受訪經濟學家中，24%預計明年加息兩次，每次25個基點，39%預計加息3次，30%預計加息4次。整體而言，英國《金融時報》調查的預測中值是，美聯儲將在2016年加息75個基點，在2017年還會加息100個基點。

On the margins, two economists expect the Fed to lift its benchmark rate by as many as 300 basis points over the next two years. One cautions the central bank may only increase rates once more after December — by just 25 basis points — over the next 24 months.

比較極端的是，有兩位經濟學家預計美聯儲將在今後兩年加息300個基點。還有一位經濟學家告誡稱，美聯儲可能在12月以後的24個月裏只會加息一次，而且僅僅加息25個基點。

Fed chair Janet Yellen has suggested that moves will be gradual, but it is not clear whether there will be formal guidance to that effect in the Fed statement.

美聯儲主席珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)暗示，加息將是漸進式的，但尚不清楚美聯儲的聲明會不會就這一點提供正式指引。

Several economists warned the Fed’s ability to increase rates would be constrained by the effect of a slowdown and dollar appreciation against other currencies. Overall, they put the odds of a technical recession in the next two years at roughly 15 per cent and the probability that the Fed would have to cut rates back to zero at 20 per cent.

數位經濟學家警告稱，美聯儲加息能力將受到經濟放緩和美元兌其他貨幣升值影響的限制。整體而言，他們認爲今後兩年發生技術性衰退的機率大約爲15%，美聯儲不得不重新降息至零的可能性是20%。