中國放開銀行間債市或引入數萬億美元資金

A little-reported rule change by China’s central bank last week could unleash trillions of dollars of foreign investment into the country.

上週中國央行(PBoC)一條几乎從未見諸報端的規則變更，或將向中國釋放數以萬億計的境外投資。

Foreign institutional investors, including commercial banks, insurance companies, asset managers and pension funds, have been given the green light to invest in China’s domestic interbank bond market en masse, without being limited by fiddly quotas.

包括商業銀行、保險公司、資產管理公司及養老基金在內的境外機構投資者，被一同授予投資中國境內銀行間債券市場的權利，而不必受限於麻煩的額度。

Z-Ben Advisors, a Shanghai-based consultancy, said the People’s Bank of China “effectively threw the previous access rule book out the window” by opening up the bulk of the Rmb48tn ($7.3tn) onshore credit market.

總部位於上海的諮詢公司澤奔諮詢(Z-Ben Advisors)表示，通過開放48萬億元人民幣（合7.3萬億美元）的境內信貸市場的主要部分，中國央行“實際上把此前的中國市場準入規定拋到了一邊”。

“An unprecedented opportunity, hyperbole warranted, is knocking: the world’s third-largest credit market will now be open. This change should trigger significant portfolio repositioning among global investors,” added Z-Ben, which foresaw foreign investment of $1.3tn into China’s onshore credit market over the next five years.

澤奔諮詢補充道：“一個史無前例的機遇正在叩門（這麼說雖誇張但不爲過）：全球第三大信貸市場如今將要開放了。這一變化應該會在全球投資者中引發資產組合的大幅度配置調整。”澤奔諮詢預計，今後五年將有1.3萬億美元的外國投資流入中國境內信貸市場。

Hayden Briscoe, director of Asia Pacific fixed income at AllianceBernstein, went further still, forecasting inflows of $2.5tn.

聯博(AllianceBernstein)亞太固定收益部門主管海登•布里斯科(Hayden Briscoe)則更進了一步，預計流入資金規模將達2.5萬億美元。

Rajeev De Mello, head of Asian fixed income at Schroders, said: “We believe that many global institutional investors will welcome this news as it gives them the opportunity to increase their holdings in Asia in a large liquid market in addition to Japan.”

施羅德(Schroders)亞洲固定收益部門主管拉吉夫•德梅洛(Rajeev De Mello)表示：“我們相信，許多全球性機構投資者將歡迎這則消息，因爲它爲他們帶來一次機遇，令他們能夠在除日本以外的另一個亞洲大型流動性市場提高對亞洲債券的持有。”

Given that close to 95 per cent of onshore trading occurs in the interbank market, which is also far more liquid than the smaller exchange-traded arena, the move “will dramatically integrate China’s bond market into the global fixed income system”, said Axa Investment Managers in a statement.

安盛投資管理(Axa Investment Managers)在一份聲明中表示，考慮到近95%的中國境內交易發生在銀行間市場，該市場的流動性也遠遠大於規模較小的交易所交易領域，這一舉措“將把中國債券市場顯著融入全球固定收益體系”。

Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore Investment Management, said that “due to a combination of prejudice, ignorance and overly conservative and inflexible investment practices”, most institutional investors still have no meaningful exposure to the onshore Chinese credit market.

安石投資管理(Ashmore Investment Management)研究主管簡•德恩(Jan Dehn)表示，“投資操作中的偏見、無知、過度保守以及死板結合在一起”，導致多數機構投資者對中國境內信貸市場的敞口仍不值一提。

Foreign ownership was just 1.6 per cent, as of November, compared with 30-40 per cent in some other emerging market countries, such as Mexico and Indonesia.

截至去年11月，債券由外資持有的比例只有1.6%，而在墨西哥和印尼等部分其他新興市場國家，這一比例在30%到40%之間。

The move by the PBoC echoes that of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which earlier in February loosened restrictions on foreign investment in China’s onshore equity markets.

中國央行此舉呼應了國家外匯管理局(State Administration of Foreign Exchange)此前的舉措：今年2月，國家外匯管理局放寬了對合格境外機構投資者投資境內證券市場的限制。

That was widely seen as a way of encouraging capital inflows into the country, which has seen its foreign reserves fall by $770bn to $3.23tn since they peaked in June 2014.

這類舉措被廣泛認爲是一種鼓勵資金流入中國的辦法。中國的外匯儲備自2014年6月見頂以後，已減少7700億美元至3.23萬億美元。

The liberalisation by Safe was also seen as clearing the path for Chinese equities to be included in the major indices tracked by institutional investors, which would be expected to unleash far greater foreign buying.

國家外匯管理局對政策的放寬，也被視爲是爲機構投資者跟蹤的主要股指納入中國股票掃清障礙。主要股指納入中國股票，預計會釋放大得多的來自境外的資產購買力。

Likewise, the freeing up of China’s onshore credit market also helps prepare the ground for entry into the major bond indices.

與此類似，中國境內信貸市場的放開，也有助於爲主要債券指數納入中國債券打下基礎。

“We think the expansion of market access could potentially open the door for Chinese renminbi bonds to be included in global indices, such as Citigroup’s World Government Bond Index, which can support the currency over the medium to long term,” wrote Aidan Yao, senior economist, and Jason Pang, a fixed income manager, at Axa Investment Managers.

安盛投資管理的資深經濟學家姚遠(Aidan Yao)和固定收益產品經理彭逸升(Jason Pang)寫道：“我們認爲，中國市場準入的擴大，可能會爲中國的人民幣債券被納入國際債券指數（比如花旗集團(Citigroup)的全球政府債券指數(World Government Bond index)）開啓大門，這可能會在中長期內對人民幣起到支撐作用。”

“[This] could usher in ‘sticky’ capital inflows, helping to balance the capital account and ease pressure on the renminbi.”

“（這）或將導入‘帶有粘性的’流入資金，有助於實現資本賬戶平衡和減輕人民幣面臨的壓力。”

Citi declined to comment for this story but is expected to release a statement in the next few days.

花旗拒絕對這一報道置評，不過預計該集團會在今後幾天內發佈聲明。

JPMorgan said Chinese bonds still remained ineligible for its GBI-EM Global Diversified index as they still did not meet all the rules for inclusion. Specifically, JPMorgan said a minimum three-month holding period for foreign institutional investors and a monthly withdrawal limit “constitute a capital control from an index eligibility perspective”.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)表示，由於中國債券仍未滿足其全球新興市場多元化債券指數(GBI-EM Global Diversified)的所有納入規則，這些債券目前仍無被該指數納入的資格。摩根大通表示，具體說來，境外機構投資者最低三個月的持有期及每月匯出資金規模的上限限制，“從可納入性的角度來說構成了資本管制行爲”。

However, Mr Dehn argued the remaining “minor obstacles” would not prevent inclusion in the major bond indices for long.

然而，德恩認爲，剩餘的“小障礙”不會長久阻止中國債券被納入主要債券指數。

“China’s markets are a juggernaut and the remaining obstacles to index inclusion will likely be overcome very soon, in our view,” he said. “King Canute famously did not succeed in holding back the tide; neither will the index providers.”

“在我們看來，中國市場規模巨大，剩餘的指數納入障礙可能會很快消除，”他表示，“克努特國王(King Canute)沒有抵擋住潮水；指數供應商們也不能。”

If and when onshore Chinese bonds do join the indices, the impact is likely to be significant.

如果中國境內債券真的加入了這些指數，其影響可能是巨大的。

Approximately $1.5tn of government bonds are in issuance, $430bn of which would be eligible in principle for the GBI-EM Global Diversified index. JPMorgan says its rules exclude bonds smaller than $1bn, those with a maturity of less than a year and those where reliable two-way pricing is not available.

目前，中國發行的政府債券規模大約爲1.5萬億美元，其中有4300億美元的債券基本符合摩根大通全球新興市場多元化債券指數的納入條件。摩根大通表示，其規則拒絕納入規模小於10億美元的債券、剩餘期限不到一年的債券、以及不具備可靠雙向報價的債券。

This would be enough to give China the maximum 10 per cent weight in the index, alongside Brazil, Mexico and Poland.

這足以讓中國債券獲得該指數最高10%的權重，與巴西、墨西哥和波蘭並駕齊驅。

However Thailand would see its weighting fall from 9.2 per cent to 7.5 per cent, while Turkey, Malaysia, Hungary and Russia would also suffer a decline of more than a percentage point, potentially depriving their governments of valuable funding as foreign investors rebalance towards China.

然而，泰國的權重將從9.2%降至7.5%，土耳其、馬來西亞、匈牙利和俄羅斯的權重也將下滑一個百分點以上，隨着外國投資者轉向中國，這些政府可能會喪失寶貴的資金。

Axa IM estimates that, if deemed eligible for Citi’s WGBI, China would have a weighting of “up to 18 per cent”.

安盛投資管理估計，如果花旗認爲中國債券滿足其全球政府債券指數的納入條件，中國將獲得“最高18%”的權重。

Given the rapid expansion of China’s onshore corporate bond market, with record issuance of nearly Rmb6tn in 2015, as depicted in the first chart, the country could also expect to become a meaningful element of indices covering this asset class as well, in the fullness of time.

鑑於中國境內公司債券市場的快速擴張（如第一張圖表所示，2015年的發行規模創下近6萬億元人民幣的記錄），假以時日，中國可能還有望成爲涵蓋這一資產類別的指數的重要組成部分。

One of the key attractions of the Chinese bond market to foreign investors could be its yields. Chinese five-year government bonds currently yield more than 2.5 per cent in nominal terms, or more than 1 per cent in real terms after adjusting for inflation.

中國債券市場吸引外國投資者的關鍵因素之一可能是收益率。中國5年期政府債券名義收益率目前超過2.5%，經通脹調整後的實際收益率超過1%。

While this might not sound hugely exciting, Mr Dehn points out that five-year bonds denominated in all the other currencies in the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights basket (those of the US, UK, Japan and Germany [representing the euro]) currently have negative real yields.

這聽上去可能不是非常令人興奮，但德恩指出，以國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)特別提款權貨幣籃子其他所有貨幣計價的5年期債券（美國債券、英國債券、日本債券以及以歐元計價的德國債券），目前實際收益率都爲負。

However, investors may want to see greater clarity of the future direction of the renminbi before putting more money to work, as adverse currency moves could easily wipe out the pick up in yields.

然而，投資者可能希望在投入更多資金之前更明確人民幣的未來走勢，因爲匯率下行可能會輕易抹除收益率的提升。

Yields on Chinese corporate bonds have trended lower in recent years, but remain reasonably high at 3 to 4.5 per cent for higher rated paper. Yields on debt rated double A minus by domestic agencies are noticeably higher, as the second chart shows, reflecting rising fear of default.

最近幾年，中國公司債券收益率呈走低趨勢，但較高評級公司債券收益率仍高居3%至4.5%。如第二張圖所示，被國內評級機構評爲AA-的公司債券收益率明顯較高，這反映出對這些債券違約的擔憂上升。

However Moody’s said it did not expect to see “large-scale” defaults, even though some steel, coal mining, shipbuilding and cement companies could run into trouble this year.

然而，穆迪(Moody's)表示，儘管一些鋼鐵、煤炭開採、造船和水泥企業今年可能陷入困境，但預計中國不會出現“大規模”違約。

The measures to open up both China’s equity and bond markets to greater foreign investment may also be construed as a further sign that Beijing is “asymmetrically opening [its] capital account”, Axa said, encouraging inflows but discouraging outflows.

安盛投資管理表示，允許更多外國投資進入中國股市和債市的舉措，也可能會被解讀爲又一個信號，表明中國政府正“不對稱地放開資本賬戶”，鼓勵資本流入但遏制資本流出。

Last week China mothballed two pioneering outbound investment schemes designed to allow domestic investors to buy foreign equities and bonds, while restrictions have also been placed on mainlanders’ purchase of insurance in Hong Kong.

上週，中國暫停了兩項旨在允許境內投資者購買境外股票和債券的開創性對外投資計劃，此前，中國還對內地居民在香港購買保險設置了限制。

“The authorities are managing the capital account asymmetrically to ease the downward pressure on the renminbi,” said Messrs Yao and Pang.

安盛投資管理的姚遠和彭逸升表示：“政府正不對稱地管控資本賬戶，以緩解人民幣下行壓力。”

“On the one hand, the PBoC has expedited the opening of capital inflows. On the other hand, controls on capital outflows have been increasingly tightened.”

“一方面，央行加快了資本流入的放開。另一方面，對資本流出的管制日益增強。”