中國違約機率有多大 China unprecedented times

Really large economies don’t go bust. The highest ranked economies to enter default, according to a Bank of Canada database, stood at around 10th: Brazil and Mexico in the 1980s, Russia in 1991. China, in contrast, has the biggest economy (on some measures) ever seen. Yet Moody’s is fretting and has marked down its outlook to “negative” from “stable”.

真正的大經濟體是不會破產的。根據加拿大央行(Bank of Canada)的一個數據庫，出現違約的國家中，規模排名最高的國家大約是第10位：上世紀80年代的巴西和墨西哥、1991年的俄羅斯。相比之下，中國（以某些標準衡量）經濟是有史以來規模最大的。然而，穆迪(Moody’s)感到焦慮不安，將中國的評級展望從“穩定”下調至“負面”。

It is easy to scoff. China’s debts may be high but are denominated in renminbi, and its reserves are the largest anywhere. But everything about China is unprecedented: its size and recent growth, and the scale of its challenges. Moody’s cites large contingent liabilities to banks and local government, and the difficulty Beijing faces managing currency convertibility.

很容易對此嗤之以鼻。中國的債務可能很高，但其債務是以人民幣計價的，而其外匯儲備也是全世界最高的。但有關中國的一切都是史無前例的：規模和近年的增長，以及中國所面臨的挑戰的艱鉅性。穆迪提到了銀行和地方政府的鉅額或有債務，以及北京方面管理貨幣可兌換性所面臨的困難。

The odds against default are overwhelming. Still, landslides start with a single pebble. China’s Aa3 rating is associated with a 1 in 1,200 chance of default. In light of its challenges, this is no overestimate.

中國發生違約的機率極小。話雖如此，千里之堤毀於蟻穴。中國的Aa3評級和1200分之一的違約機率相關聯。考慮到中國面臨的挑戰，這並不是過高的估計。