中國貸款在拉美會繼續受歡迎嗎

China has become a powerful trading partner for many Latin American countries and its financial influence is also increasingly felt. This is reason for both celebration and concern.

中國不但已是許多拉美國家的重要貿易伙伴，對該地區的金融影響力也日益增強。這既是可喜之事，也引起擔憂。

Newly released data from the Inter-American Dialogue, a think-tank, show that despite sluggish global economic growth, lending to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) by Chinese development banks reached a near record in 2015.

華盛頓智庫美洲對話組織(Inter-American Dialogue)最新發布的數據顯示，雖然全球經濟增長乏力，但2015年中國開發銀行發放給拉美和加勒比地區(LAC)的貸款卻達到接近歷史最高紀錄的水平。

The China Development Bank and the China Export-Import Bank lent a total of $29.1bn last year to governments and state-owned corporations in the region, almost three times the amount in 2014 and more than the combined loans to LAC from the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank.

去年，中國國家開發銀行(CDB)與中國進出口銀行(China Export Import Bank)向該地區各國政府及國有企業發放貸款共計291億美元，是2014年的近3倍，超過了該地區從世界銀行(World Bank)及美洲開發銀行(Inter-American Development Bank)獲得的貸款總和。

Lending from the two Chinese policy banks came close to the $33.4bn that LAC governments managed to raise in the capital markets and dwarfs the $786m raised through international bank syndicated loans in 2015, according to data provider Dealogic.

根據數據提供商Dealogic，2015年這兩家中國政策性銀行對該地區發放的貸款，接近於該地區各國政府在資本市場籌集的334億美元資金，並使該地區通過國際銀行銀團貸款形式籌集的7.86億美元相形見絀。

Last year’s lending was less only than that of 2010, when China’s post-crisis stimulus was in full flood.

中國去年對該地區發放的貸款僅少於2010年，那一年，中國在金融危機以後出臺的刺激措施達到了高潮。

The bad news is that while the international investor community likes lending to orthodox issuers, and thereby reinforces sustainable macroeconomic policies among borrower governments, China tends to channel funds to nations that can simply match its demands for natural resources, or where it can make financing conditional on the involvement of Chinese companies and workers in the development of infrastructure and other projects.

壞消息是，相比起國際投資者羣體喜歡貸款給傳統的證券發行主體、從而推動借款方政府強化可持續的宏觀經濟政策，中國傾向於貸款給那些能滿足本國對自然資源需求的國家，或者那些爲獲得融資而答應在基礎設施及其他項目的建設中讓中國企業、工人蔘與的國家。

Venezuela has been by far the main recipient of loans from Beijing. Since records began in 2005, the oil-rich country has received $65bn from China, more than half the total to the region. Last year, it secured $10bn to finance energy-related projects.

委內瑞拉是得到中國貸款最多的拉美國家。自2005年有記錄以來，這個擁有豐富石油資源的國家已從中國獲得650億美元貸款，超過中國對該地區放貸總額的一半。去年，委內瑞拉獲得了北京100億美元貸款，爲能源相關項目融資。

“China has facilitated, particularly in Venezuela, unfortunate policymaking and has potentially prolonged [president Nicolás] Maduro’s ability to stay in power,” says Margaret Myers, China and Latin America programme director at the Dialogue. “Who knows what would have happened without Chinese finance.”

“中國助長了糟糕的政策制定，尤其是在委內瑞拉，而且有可能延長了總統尼古拉斯氠嵐坧(Nicolás Maduro)繼續掌權的能力，”美洲對話組織的中國與拉美項目主管馬格里特邁爾斯(Margaret Myers)說，“如果沒有來自中國的融資，誰知道會發生什麼。”

There are concerns about China’s relationship with Argentina, too. Under former president Cristina Fernández Argentina signed a bilateral agreement on economic co-operation and investment with China, which was approved by congress in March 2015, seven months before elections that brought a change of government.

人們對中國與阿根廷的關係同樣懷有擔憂。前總統克里斯蒂娜費爾南德斯(Cristina Fernández，上圖左)當政期間，阿根廷與中國簽署了一項關於經濟合作與投資的雙邊協議。2015年3月，阿根廷國會批准了該協議，但7個月後的大選帶來了政府更迭。

Under the agreement, Chinese companies can bypass public tenders for infrastructure projects if Chinese banks offer project finance, and the two governments can sign additional agreements to launch public work projects without approval in Argentina’s congress.

該協議規定，如果中資銀行提供項目融資，中國企業就可以不通過公開招標直接獲得基建項目，而且，兩國政府可以通過簽署附加協議來啓動公共工程項目，無需經過阿根廷國會批准。

Beijing recently announced the creation of $35bn worth of investment funds that it intends to dedicate to LAC infrastructure and other projects.

最近，北京宣佈將創建350億美元的投資基金，計劃用於拉美和加勒比地區的基礎設施及其它項目。

People familiar with the process say Argentina and other LAC countries have solicited Chinese finance by presenting unpublished lists of pre-selected projects. The worry, says Ms Myers, who has seen one such list, is over how investments are identified and the apparent lack of scrutiny of their feasibility, utility or environmental impact.

知情人士表示，阿根廷與該地區其他國家曾通過提供不公開的預先選定項目清單來吸引中國融資。曾見過一份此類清單的邁爾斯表示，這種做法的問題在於如何確定這些投資，以及項目的可行性、效用或環境影響方面明顯缺少審查。

Things may change under Argentina’s new, more market-orientated government. The crisis in Venezuela, widely expected to tip over into debt default and a change of government this year, may also lead to a reassessment there of the appeal of Chinese finance.

阿根廷新一屆的更具市場導向意識的政府或許會讓情況發生變化。委內瑞拉爆發的危機——被普遍認爲將在今年引發債務違約及政府更迭——也可能會讓該國對中國融資的吸引力進行重新評估。