中國面臨鉅額救市賬單 Beijing pays high price for intervention

Aggressive policy action is now a regular feature of global markets — Haruhiko Kuroda had his bazooka, while Ben Bernanke took to a helicopter.

積極的政策行動如今是全球市場的一個常態化特點——日本央行行長黑田東彥(Haruhiko Kuroda)曾提到他的“火箭筒”，而美聯儲前主席本伯南克(Ben Bernanke)曾表示不惜用直升機撒錢。

But in China, falling asset prices have met a full-scale invasion of the market, securing an expensive victory that many believe could yet prove fleeting.

但在中國，連連下跌的資產價格導致市場遭到全面入侵，結果是一場代價高昂的勝利，而許多人相信，這場勝利仍可能被證明是短暫的。

After three months of huge government intervention to halt diving stocks, Chinese authorities appear ready to declare their mission accomplished. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, told a G20 meeting last weekend that the stock market correction, which has left the Shanghai Composite nearly 40 per cent below its June high, is now “mostly over”.

在政府爲了遏止股價跳水而大舉干預三個月後，中國官方似乎準備宣告他們的任務已經完成。中國人民銀行(PBoC)行長周小川上週末在20國集團(G20)會議上表示，已使上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)從6月高點下跌40%的股市調整“已大致到位”。

In the days since, the Shanghai Composite has barely budged, rising 1.2 per cent this week. Having tumbled from a peak of 5,100 points in mid-June, the index seems to have found a new comfort zone just above 3,000 points, where it has been trading since the last week of August.

自周小川表態以來，上證綜指幾乎沒有變化，本週上升1.2%。在從6月中旬的5100點峯值大幅下跌後，該指數似乎已在3000點上方找到了新的舒適區，自8月最後一週以來一直處於這一水平。

Domestic analysts have been quick to express their relief. “Given that recent policy measures have restrained speculative activities and deleveraging has run its course for the time being, there is hope for a market rebound,” says Wang Fen at Shanghai Securities. Meanwhile, Soochow Securities has released a report entitled: “The severe winter is past, and the time has come for spring planting.”

國內分析師很快表示他們鬆了一口氣。“鑑於近期的政策措施已經收斂了投機活動，而去槓桿化也暫時告一段落，市場有望反彈，”上海證券(Shanghai Securities)的王芬表示。與此同時，東吳證券(Soochow Securities)近日發表的一份報告題爲“寒冬已去春耕適時”。

Not everyone is convinced, however. Average equity valuations may have come down significantly from the peak, but many stocks — especially small-caps — still trade at price to earnings ratios far above their historical trend. Despite the huge falls in the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices, both have risen a third over the past 12 months, making them the best performing markets in the world. The bubble, say sceptics, has not yet completely burst.

然而，並非所有人都確信這一點。股票的平均估值已從峯值大幅回落，但許多個股（尤其是小盤股）的市盈率仍遠高於歷史趨勢線。儘管上海和深圳的股指均已大幅下跌，但兩者在過去12個月仍累計上漲三分之一，是全球表現最佳的股市。懷疑人士稱，泡沫尚未完全破裂。

“The government is supporting the market at too high a level”, says Francis Cheung, China equity strategist at CLSA. “They are going to lose. At some point, they will have to let go.” He has a price target for the Shanghai Composite of 2,700, implying a further 15 per cent drop from current levels.

“政府在過高的水平支撐市場，”里昂證券(CLSA)中國股票策略師鄭名凱(Francis Cheung)表示。“他們將會失守。在某個時間點，他們將不得不放棄。”據他判斷，上證綜指的目標點位應該是2700，這意味着從目前水平進一步下降15%。

Even if Beijing has succeeded in putting a floor under share prices, it has done so at great expense. The government itself has deployed as much as Rmb1.5tn ($236bn) to support the stock market in the past three months, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.

即使北京方面已經成功地爲股價築底，但它付出的代價也實在巨大。據高盛(Goldman Sachs)估計，政府在過去三個月動用了多達1.5萬億元人民幣（合2360億美元）支撐股市。

The costs of rescuing the market have not just been financial. The intervention has derailed some key reform initiatives, such as shifting capital raising from commercial bank loans to the equity market. To cut the supply of new shares into the market, initial public offerings have been frozen.

救市的成本還不僅是財務上的。此輪干預已經擾亂了一些關鍵的改革舉措，比如把籌資的主要渠道從商業銀行貸款轉向股市。爲了減少股市的新股供應，首次公開發行(IPO)已被凍結。

Trading volumes have collapsed as government action, capital outflows and ructions in the currency markets have sapped liquidity. Turnover on the Shanghai stock exchange on Tuesday fell to $43bn, the lowest daily amount since February and down from a peak of $212bn in early June. Futures volumes have taken a more severe hammering.

近期股市成交額大幅下降，因爲政府採取的行動、資金外流以及匯市的風波都吸走了流動性。本週二，上海證交所成交額降至430億美元，這是自2月以來的最低單日成交額，與6月初2120億美元的高位不可同日而語。期貨成交額受到更加沉重的打擊。

“Futures are dead, options are dead, margin finance is dead. Brokers are unwilling to lend, so there’s no liquidity”, says Hao Hong, strategist at Bocom International.

“期貨死了，期權死了，保證金融資死了。券商不願放貸，所以沒有流動性，”交銀國際(Bocom International)分析師洪灝表示。

Meanwhile, the longer term goal of increasing foreign participation in domestic financial markets has taken a significant step backwards after new rules were introduced that banned short selling and big share sales.

與此同時，在出臺新規則禁止賣空、禁止出售大筆股票後，提高外資在國內金融市場參與度的長期目標向後倒退了一大步。

“Nobody wants to own an asset without knowing if they can sell,” says Bob Browne, chief investment officer at Northern Trust, the US fund manager with $960bn in assets under management.

“沒有人想要擁有不知道可不可以出售的資產，”旗下管理着9600億美元資產的美國基金管理公司北方信託(Northern Trust)的首席投資官鮑勃布朗(Bob Browne)表示。

Investors and brokers have also found themselves under investigation by the authorities. And despite official declarations that the crisis is over, many believe there is further to fall, especially with the economy continuing to slow.

這還不算，一些投資者和經紀商發現自己受到當局的調查。儘管官方宣告危機已經結束，但很多人相信還會進一步下跌，尤其是鑑於中國經濟正繼續放緩。

“Even after the plunge, we haven’t really capitulated. It is very difficult to say we have bottomed out and fundamentals aren’t getting better,” says Mr Hong. “What’s the reason to buy?”

“即使市場已經大幅下跌，但我們還沒有看到真正的投降。很難說我們已經觸底，而基本面也沒有好轉，”交銀國際的洪灝表示。“買入的理由是什麼？”