中國房地產債券爲何受追捧 Why are Chinese high yield property bonds outperforming

Traditionally, investing in Asian high-yield bonds has not been for the faint-hearted. Yet in recent years a new normal emerged; just about any bond delivered strong returns. Such has been one of the results of the extremely accommodative policies of major central banks that have flooded the markets with liquidity, thereby dulling the perception of risk.

傳統上，亞洲高收益債券不是爲膽小者準備的投資品種。然而近年出現一種新常態；投資任何一種債券都帶來巨大回報。這是全球主要央行實行極端寬鬆政策的後果之一；這些政策讓市場充斥着流動性，從而降低了人們對風險的感知。

However, all this changed last year when steep falls in oil and commodities prices, together with US high-yield fund redemptions, led to a liquidity shakeout in the high-yield bond market. The new reality rewarded a discriminating investment strategy – with the Chinese property sector’s high yield bonds returning gains of 20 per cent, even as other market segments such as Indian issuers and Chinese industrials experienced single-digit losses.

然而，去年這一切都改變了。石油和大宗商品價格大幅下跌，加上美國高收益債券基金贖回，導致高收益債券市場的流動性出現重大洗牌。這一新現實有利於一種區別對待的投資戰略：中國房地產行業高收益債券的價格漲幅達到20%，即便其他市場板塊（比如印度發行人和中國工業企業）遭遇個位數下降。

This steep divergence might appear surprising. It is well known that the metals, mining and energy sectors across Asia experienced significant pain last year, but Chinese property also had its share of problems from an inventory glut to a default by Kaisa Group, a property developer.

這種明顯分化或許令人意外。公所周知，去年，全亞洲的金屬、採礦和能源行業承受了巨大的痛苦，但中國房地產行業也受困於不少問題——從庫存過剩到開發商佳兆業(Kaisa Group)違約。

The explanation for this curious dichotomy is that in the often opaque, Asian high-yield market, destiny is only partly defined by fundamentals.

這一奇怪分化的原因在於，在往往不透明的亞洲高收益債券市場，命運僅僅在一定程度上是由基本面因素決定的。

Investors need to consider not just movements in default risk but also the interplay of both the supply and demand of bonds. A good starting point with high-yield is to remember that in contrast to equities, downside protection and not earnings is the primary concern.

投資者需要考慮的不僅是違約風險的變動，還有債券的供需狀況。要了解高收益債券市場，一個良好起點是記住：與股票不同，投資者主要關心的是下行風險防護，而不是發行人的利潤。

It is not whether a company makes its profit numbers but whether we can be sure the issuer will avoid default that matters most, because a default would wipe out any pick up in yield through the loss of principal. Or put another way, we worry about whether the glass will stay half full and not if it will ever be filled to the top.

最重要的不是一家公司能否賺到利潤，而是我們能否確定發行人將會避免違約，因爲收益率上升無法彌補違約造成的本金損失。換言之，我們擔心的是玻璃杯中的水能否保持半滿狀態，而不是杯子會不會裝滿水。

This means that high-yield analysis tends to be company rather than sector or country specific as it comes down to accurately pricing the risk of each individual company’s likelihood of default.

這意味着，對高收益債券的分析通常針對個別公司，而不針對具體行業或國家，因爲關鍵是對每傢俱體公司的違約可能性進行風險定價。

At the most basic level this question can come down to whether a bond issuer has access to new financing. A distressed company in a sector with buoyant investor demand and liquidity is usually in a retrievable situation. But if liquidity support is withdrawn or unlikely, prices can drop fast as defaults become much more likely.

從根本上講，這個問題可以歸結爲一家債券發行人能否獲得新融資。在投資者需求旺盛、流動性充沛的行業，一家陷入困境的公司通常能夠恢復過來。但是，如果流動性支持被抽掉或不太可能存在，由於違約可能性大幅增加，債券價格可能會迅速下跌。

China’s offshore bond market, the largest in Asia, is a good example of the large role fluctuations in bond liquidity can play in performance. Last year saw a large swing in sentiment after the default by Kaisa Group aroused fears that the state was withdrawing its implicit support for property developers. However, in the event, the default proved to be an isolated case.

亞洲規模最大的中國離岸債券市場，是證明債券流動性波動可能對行情發揮重要作用的很好例子。去年，佳兆業集團違約之後市場情緒產生巨大波動，引發了有關政府開始撤銷對開發商隱形支持的擔憂。但結果那起違約被證明是孤立事件。

The main reasons for this included the fact that most Chinese property companies were replete with capital, having issued bonds in 2014 and 2015, meaning the repayment of principal would not happen for another three to five years. Another key reason was the re-opening of the domestic bond market to property developers, following a six-year hiatus.

其中的主要原因包括如下事實，在2014年和2015年發行債券（這意味着未來三至五年內不必償還本金）之後，中國房地產企業資本充足。另一個關鍵原因在於，在中斷6年後，國內債券市場重新對房地產開發商開放了。

This boosted the sector as it enabled credit profiles to be enhanced as corporates accessed cheaper funds onshore. It also helped developers to better match debt and revenue liabilities in renminbi.

這提振了房地產行業，因爲開發商可在國內融入成本更低的資金，增強其信用狀況。這還有助於開發商更好地匹配債務和營收（因爲兩者都是人民幣）。

A secondary impact was that as Chinese developers raised some $27bn domestically, they also stopped issuing offshore bonds and even redeemed some. This led to a tightening in supply, helping to push up prices. The sector also benefited from liquidity inflows as various investors were attracted by its relative safe haven status.

一個次要的影響是，中國開發商在國內融資270億美元的同時，還停止發行、甚至贖回了部分離岸債券。這導致離岸債券供應趨緊，幫助推高了價格。房地產行業還受益於資金流入，因爲其相對安全的避風港地位吸引了形形色色的投資者。

Domestically, after steep falls in Chinese equities last summer, investors switched into bonds, as they sought more defensive exposure. At the same time, traditional Asian high-yield investors also chased Chinese property names as just about every other sector was facing distress due to the ongoing commodity unwind.

從國內來看，在去年夏季中國股市大跌之後，尋求防禦性敞口的投資者轉投債券。另一方面，傳統亞洲高收益債券投資者也在追逐中國房地產企業的債券，因爲大宗商品下跌導致幾乎其他所有行業都面臨困境。

Taken together, Chinese developers enjoyed a liquidity sweet spot, with dwindling offshore supply coupled with new investment inflows. Another reason for the dominance of China property is it towers over other countries and sectors in Asian high-yield universe.

綜合上述各種因素，隨着離岸供應逐漸減少和新資金流入，中國開發商受益於一個流動性“甜蜜點”。中國房地產行業受寵的另一個原因在於，在亞洲高收益債券市場，它的境況好於其他國家開發商和行業。

Elsewhere the high-yield universe is concentrated largely in mining, energy and property spread across South East Asia, Australia and India. In these sectors few corporates have been left unscathed by the steep commodity slowdown and currency weakness.

在亞洲其他地區，高收益債券發行方主要集中在東南亞、澳大利亞和印度的礦業、能源和房地產行業。在這些行業，未曾受到大宗商品價格暴跌和本幣貶值傷害的企業非常少。

The outlook for 2016 is clouded by elevated distress and tightening liquidity as investor interest in refinancing becomes extremely selective. Here the liquidity X factor in much of Asian high-yield is more likely to leave a sting on the downside as defaults rise. Once again, Chinese property developers remain out-performers so far.

2016年的前景被困難加劇和流動性趨緊的陰雲所籠罩，因爲投資者對再融資的興趣變得極端挑剔。隨着違約的增多，很大一部分亞洲高收益債券的流動性狀況更有可能在市場下行時加劇跌勢。到目前爲止，中國房地產開發商保持着領跑者地位。