下一個大泡沫:債券,創業公司,中國?

Blowing bubbles can be fun, but even kids know they pop eventually. Do investors realize this too?

吹氣泡是很有趣的，但是，甚至連孩子們也知道，他們最終是會破滅的。投資者們也相信這點嗎？

Instead of oxygen, asset bubbles grow because of easy money and unreasonable investor expectations.

不是因爲吹入空氣，資產泡沫的膨脹源自於低息貸款和不理智的投資期望。

For the past seven years, investors have been living in an era of extremely low interest rates. Investor s have been basically forced into riskier assets to make money. That raises the potential for another dot -com style bubble (and crash) where valuations get way ahead of fundamentals.

在過去的7年裏,投資者生活在一個極端低利率的時代。多數投資者都被驅使着進入風險資產以獲得財富。這提升了產生與互聯網泡沫(或破裂）相似泡沫的可能性，評估價值高於實際價值。

Is the same thing happening today? Possibly.

現在，同祥的事情又發生了嗎？有可能。

"There are bubbles everywhere. When you've had zero and negative interest rates and massive amounts of money printing, how could we not be in some kind of bubble?" says Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group.

林賽集團的高級市場分析師彼得·布克瓦說，"泡沫到處都是。當你保持零利率或負利率，同時大量印刷鈔票，我們怎麼可能不陷入某種泡沫呢？"

It's too early to say for sure, but here are a few of the asset classes being scrutinized as possible bubbles:

現在下結論還言之過早，但是，下面是幾個被審查出來的可能存在泡沫的資產種類。

Bonds: Many investors believe the enormous bull market in bonds is defying gravity.

債券：很多投資者相信，債券市場大牛市已經失控。

The clearest sign that things are not right is that bond yields in Europe have actually gone negative. That's not supposed to happen. Investors are essentially paying to own the government debt of countries like France and Germany, which earlier this year sold a five-year bond with negative yield.

失控的最顯著信號是，歐洲債券收益率已經是實實在在的負利率了。這本不應該發生。投資者實際上是購買了國債，比如法國和德國國債，今年早些時候，它們出售了一筆5年期的負收益率國債。

"Fixed income is an epic bubble globally," said Boockvar.

布克瓦說，"定息債券是一個史詩級別的全球泡沫。"

The question is what happens to the rest of the financial system if there's a huge correction in the bon d market when the Federal Reserve finally raises rates, especially given concerns about liquidity in fixe d income.

這就是當美聯儲最終升息，債券市場獲得巨大修正時，全球其他金融系統中會發生的事情。尤其考慮到定息債券還有流動性困境。

Startups: Young tech companies with little track record or revenue — let alone profitability — are raising money at a breathtaking pace.

創業公司：年輕的科技公司根本沒有業績和收入，更不用說利潤了，他們正在瘋狂集資。

Bigger name companies like Airbnb, Lyft and Pinterest are garnering eye-popping valuations that rival those of public companies. Ride-sharing app Uber is reportedly being valued at $50 billion. Talk about surge pricing.

更大的聲名顯赫的公司，比如愛本卜，Lyft和品趣志，都籌集了令人瞠目結舌的投資，與上市公司競爭。共享應用軟件Uber據報道價值500億美元。價格飆升。

SnapChat reportedly raised money at a $19 billion valuation in February, doubling its value just from December.

SnapChat據報道二月份集資達190億美元，比它十二月份的價值高兩倍。

Noted investor Mark Cuban said the startup bubble is "far worse" than the dot-com one. And even SnapChat CEO Evan Spiegel warned of a coming "correction" in the frothy startup world.

著名投資者馬克·庫班說，創業公司泡沫比互聯網泡沫"糟糕得多"。甚至連SnapChat的CEO埃文·斯皮格爾都對這個即將到來的創業泡沫世界提出警告。

A collapse in the pre-IPO market could dent confidence in the technology sector and the economy more broadly.

上市前融資市場可能會降低技術部門和更多其他經濟部門的信心。

"It could be a precursor to a bigger contagion effect down the line," said Ankur Patel, chief investment officer at R-Squared Macro Management.

R平方宏觀管理的高級投資主管安珂·帕特爾說，"這可能就是泡沫完全擴散的前兆。"

China: No major stock market is as hot as China's. It's up more than 100% this year alone, despite the fact that economic growth is slowing big time.

中國：沒有哪個主要的股票市場能像中國這樣火爆。今年，它的股市獨自上漲了超過100%，完全不顧經濟的大減速。

The mega gains are being fueled by easy money from China's central bank. Retail investors are racing to join the party, with millions of people opening new stock trading accounts.

這個大爆發是被中國央行的低息貸款點燃的。散戶們跑步進場，數百萬人開通了新的股市賬戶。

Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned on Friday that "risks are mounting" in China as valuations "have come unhinged" from monetary conditions, corporate earnings and the country's economic growth, which has slowed in recent months.

美林銀行週五警告稱，中國危機正隨着源自貨幣狀況，公司收益和減速的經濟增長的評估混亂而加重。

Investors poured $4.5 billion into China funds last week, the largest weekly inflow since April 2008, according to BofA.

根據美國銀行的數據，上週，投資者傾瀉了45億美元進入中國基金，這是自2008年4月以來最大的周資金注入。

"That's a violent bubble move too," said Boockvar.

布克瓦說，"這也是一個急劇吹大的泡沫。"

Tech stocks: Investors are on guard for signs the bull market in stocks could be overdone. The U.S. stock market may be more expensive than its peers, but the rally has taken a breather in recent months. The S&P 500 is up less than 3% so far this year.

科技股：投資者們正在警惕着牛市可能過熱的信號。美國股市可能過高了，但是，最近幾個月，股市已經在休整了。標普500指數今年至今爲止只增長不到3%。

That doesn't mean certain pockets of the market can't be experiencing bubbles on their own. Patel pointed to small-cap stocks as well as technology and biotechs as "areas of concern."

這並不意味着市場中的某些股票不能安全的穿越股市泡沫。帕特爾指的是，小微股票，科技和生物技術股票。

Even Fed chief Janet Yellen warned last summer that smaller biotech and social media stocks look somewhat inflated.

但聯邦高官珍妮特·耶倫去年夏天甚至警告稱，就連小型生物科技公司和社會媒體股票看起來某種程度上也已經產生了泡沫。

Art: It's not just stocks and bonds that are looking problematic. The high end of the art market has been on fire lately. Christie's sold a whopping $1.5 billion of art in three weeks earlier this year, including a Picasso that sold for a record-shattering $179 million.

藝術品：有問題並不只是股票和債券。高端藝術品市場近來也已經膨脹。奧斯陸在今年早些時候，三週內賣出了價值15億美元的藝術品，包括畢加索的作品，售出了破紀錄的1.79億美元。

"As with high flying stocks, the logic was that the money had to go somewhere and why not a wall instead of a monthly portfolio statement," famed bond investor Bill Gross wrote in a note to clients last week.

著名的債券投資人比爾·格羅斯上週在一篇寫給客戶的信中說，"隨着股票的飛昇，邏輯已經變成，錢被驅使到達那些地方，爲什麼每個月都是瘋狂投資且不會停止呢。"

Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 crisis, recently warned that the lack of transparency into art prices makes it subject to "fads, fashions, manias -- and potential bubbles."

成功預測了2008年危機的魯裏埃爾·魯比尼，近來警告稱，由於藝術品的價格缺乏透明度，它的價格已經受制於"一時的狂熱，時尚，投資瘋狂——和潛在的泡沫。"

NYC luxury condos: As the pre-crisis housing bubble showed, real estate markets can get out of whack with reality.

紐約的奢侈公寓：危機前房產泡沫顯示，房地產市場可以脫離現實。

Some observers are keeping a close eye on the market for luxury condos and other properties in hot destinations like Manhattan.

一些觀察者在密切關注奢侈公寓市場和其他高熱房地產市場，比如曼哈頓。

A new condo in Manhattan will cost more than $3 million next year, working out to median of $2,158 per square foot, according to CityRealty.

根據城市地產提供的數據，明年，曼哈頓的一間新公寓將價值300萬美元，算出來每平方英尺的中位數是2158美元。

A two-level duplex penthouse in One57, a Manhattan skyscraper, sold for a record-breaking $100.5 million in January.

在One57的頂層複式閣樓——一棟曼哈頓摩天——一月份售價達到了創紀錄的1.005億美元。

Now what? Only time will tell which -- if any -- of these asset classes are actually in bubble territory.

又怎麼了？只有時間能告訴我們有哪些——如果有的話——資產類別確實出現了泡沫。

And even if they are, it doesn't mean the party will end any time soon. It's notoriously difficult to time when bubbles will pop.

即使它們是泡沫，也並不意味着它們會很快破裂。衆所周知，很難預測泡沫何時纔會破裂。

"No one knows when these things end. You could have bought the bubble in the Nasdaq in 1998 and had a great 1999," said Boockvar.

布克瓦說，"沒人會知道泡沫何時破裂。你本來也可以在1998年購買納斯達克股票，然後在1999年大賺一筆。"

Of course, your 2000 wouldn't have been so hot if you stayed in.

當然，如果你在2000年還沒有退出，那麼，你應該就不會那麼幸運了。