經紀公司稱中國的威士忌泡沫越來越大大綱

To the Chinese stock market and property bubbles, now add the whisky bubble.

除股市泡沫和樓市泡沫以外，中國現在又多了一個威士忌泡沫。
That's what analysts at brokerage firm Redburn are cautioning for spirit makers looking to sell the tipple to the huge Chinese market, and it's not without precedent. Japan went through such Scotch-fueled exuberance in the 1970s and 1980s, say the analysts, and spirit makers are still haunted by the hangover from that experience.

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images這是經紀公司Redburn的分析師向那些想在巨大的中國市場銷售威士忌的釀酒公司發出的警告。這種泡沫並不是第一次出現。分析師說，日本在上世紀70年代和80年代就經歷過一輪相似的威士忌狂歡，而釀酒公司至今仍對當年的宿醉記憶猶新。

According to Redburn, Scotch is in fact a highly economically-sensitive product, with demand closely tracking economic upturns and downturns. Following the economic slump of the 1970s in the West, Scotch makers turned to the most promising market, Japan, where their marketing efforts, and the behavior of newly-rich Japanese consumers has many parallels with the Chinese market today.
據Redburn說，威士忌實際上是一種與經濟形勢息息相關的產品，需求緊緊跟隨着經濟的起伏而起伏。在上世紀70年代西方經濟遭受重挫之後，威士忌生產商轉向了最有希望的市場──日本。當時酒商的營銷手段和日本新富消費者的行爲跟今天的中國市場有很多相似之處。

"The Japanese consumer acquired a taste for premium Scotch and many deluxe brands, such as Johnnie Walker Gold Label, were launched exclusively for the Japanese market. But Japanese consumption was increasingly not on the back of increased connoisseurship, rather it was price-insensitive executives spending on the corporate credit card," writes Redburn.
Redburn寫道，日本消費者喜歡喝優質威士忌，很多奢侈品牌都是專門面向日本市場推出的，尊尼獲加金牌 ((Johnnie Walker Gold Label)威士忌就是其一。但日本威士忌消費越來越依賴刷公司的信用卡且不在意價格的企業高管，而不是人們鑑賞能力的提高。

Then came the bust in the early 1990s, and the bursting of the Japanese whisky bubble which Scotch makers were not prepared for.
然而接下來90年代初期經濟泡沫的破滅以及日本威士忌泡沫的破滅讓釀酒公司猝不及防。

"If consumption is based on fashion or corporate expense accounts then there is no inherent brand equity to weather a downturn in either the economic or fashion cycle," says Redburn.
Redburn說，如果威士忌消費的基礎是時尚或公司報銷，那麼就沒有內在的品牌價值來抵擋經濟週期或時尚週期的下行。

Diageo PLC, which on Wednesday announced plans to invest more than 1 billion pounds (US$1.52 billion) in Scotch whisky production over the next five years concentrating on emerging markets, produces a premium vodka in China exclusively for that market, called Shanghai White. In Shanghai, it runs the Johnnie Walker House, where, according to its website, it is "an embassy for whisky culture."
帝亞吉歐(Diageo PLC)週三宣佈將在未來五年投資逾10億英鎊（合15.2億美元）用於擴大威士忌產能，新興市場是主要的目標市場。該公司在中國產有一種專門針對這個市場的超高檔伏特加，名爲“海上幻”(Shanghai White)。它在上海運營着尊尼獲加“尊邸”(Johnnie Walker House)，其網站說，這是“威士忌文化的使館”。

China is already the top market for France's Remy Cointreau SA's Remy Martin cognac, but the company has repeatedly said that it has plans to spend up to 1 billion euros to acquire new premium brands, such as an upmarket whisky that is popular in China.
中國已經是法國人頭馬-君度集團(Remy Cointreau SA)人頭馬乾邑的最大市場，但該公司曾反覆表示打算投入最高10億歐元用於收購新的優質品牌，比如一款在中國很受歡迎的高檔威士忌。
Even politicians have jumped on the bandwagon, with Britain and China signing an agreement in 2010 to ensure that only Scottish-made whisky be allowed to be sold as Scotch in China, partly because counterfeit Scotch is a problem.
甚至連政界都來湊熱鬧。英國和中國在2010年簽署了一份協議，以確保只有蘇格蘭生產的威士忌才能作爲蘇格蘭威士忌(Scotch)在中國出售。部分原因在於中國的假冒蘇格蘭威士忌氾濫成災。

Redburn says there's no guarantee that Scotch will be able to gain mass appeal in China, beyond just being the tipple of choice for the ultra-wealthy class. It says Scotch tastes vary widely in the region and do not show direct correlation with income. Where GDP per capita is high, such as Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong, Scotch consumption is actually much lower than in South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.
Redburn說，無法保證蘇格蘭威士忌在成爲極富階層最愛飲品之外，還能夠受到中國普通民衆的歡迎。它說，亞洲各地對蘇格蘭威士忌的喜好差異很大，與收入沒有直接關係。日本、新加坡和香港等地人均GDP較高，但其蘇格蘭威士忌的消費量卻大大少於韓國、臺灣和泰國。

In addition, whisky and other spirits face stiff competition against China's national drink, baijiu, which is distilled from sorghum, wheat or rice, and dominates the alcohol market by a long way. Not surprisingly, there's also talk of there being a baijiu bubble in China, driven by the drink's popularity not just for consumption, but also for investment and gifts.
除此以外，威士忌等酒水還面臨着中國國飲──白酒的激烈競爭。白酒用高粱、小麥或大米蒸餾而成，在中國酒水市場佔據着絕對的支配地位。毫不奇怪地，也有人在說中國存在白酒泡沫，因爲白酒受歡迎不僅是爲了用於消費，而且是用於投資和送禮。

On the other hand, India, which has a tradition of drinking Scotch dating back to the colonial era, is a market of huge promise for spirit makers, says Redburn. However, low incomes and high import tariffs are obstacles to growth. India and the European Union are currently in trade talks, where European officials are hoping for steep tariff cuts on liquor.
Redbum說，對於釀酒公司來說，印度是一個大有希望的市場，因爲它擁有發端於殖民時期的威士忌飲用傳統。但由於收入水平低而且進口關稅高，印度這個市場成長受限。眼下，印度和歐盟正在舉行貿易談判，歐洲官員希望印度大幅降低酒水的關稅。