爲什麼說蘋果應該收購Netflix

Streaming video provider Netflix recently reported record subscriber growth of 2.3 million in the U.S. and 2.6 million internationally for the first quarter. The company now boasts 62 million subscribers worldwide. In response to the company’s rapid growth, FBR & Co. analyst Barton Crockett set a one-year price target of $900 a share for the company, a nearly 60% increase from its current level; and expects Netflixto reach 180 million global subscribers.

流媒體視頻服務供應商Netflix最近披露的數據顯示，今年一季度它創下了新的增長紀錄，美國國內訂閱用戶增長了230萬，國際訂閱用戶增長了260萬。目前，Netflix稱其全球用戶數已達6200萬。面對如此高速增長，綜合性金融公司FBR & Co.分析師巴頓o克羅基特將Netflix的一年期目標價定爲每股900美元，相對於當前股價，上升空間接近60%。克羅基特還預計，Netflix的全球用戶數將達到1.8億。

Much of Netflix’s growth is being driven by its successful expansion overseas, as well as a rollout of new original programming series, such as Marvel’s Daredevil, Bloodline, and a renewal of existing hits like House of Cards and Orange is the New Black. The company also stands to benefit from consumers who don’t want to be tied to expensive cable and satellite packages in order to secure their entertainment.

Netflix的增長很大程度上得益於其成功的海外擴張，以及一系列原創新劇的不斷推出，比如改編自漫威漫畫的《超膽俠》、《血族》，而且現有熱播劇《紙牌屋》和《女子監獄》等都推出了新一季。Netflix還有部分收入來自不願意忍受昂貴的有線及衛星電視的消費者，對他們來說Netflix提供了娛樂新選擇。

But international expansion and compelling content require large capital outlays and ongoing expenses. Netflix’s content acquisition and creation costs are trending upwards and the company’s strategy of increasing its global footprint will carry a price until those markets become profitable. In other words, Netflix will need healthy amounts of cash in order to finance its foreseeable growth.

然而，海外擴張和優質節目需要都投入大量資金，而且得持續投入。Netflix購買和製作節目的成本正節節攀升。同時，海外市場擴張策略在盈利前要承受相當大的成本壓力。換句話說，想實現預期增長，Netflix需要健康的現金流支撐。

For these reasons, the company is ripe for acquisition, and a company like Apple would be remiss if it didn’t seriously look into a deal. Apple has both the means and motivation to acquire Netflix, and while the movie and television business may not be Apple’s prime focus, it certainly can’t afford to stand on the sidelines while a player like Netflix takes over the market.

這些因素帶來了收購Netflix的良機。對蘋果這樣的企業來說，如果沒有認真考慮過此事未免是種疏忽。蘋果既有收購Netflix的實力，也有足夠的動力。雖然影視業務可能並非蘋果的主要關注點，但在Netflix這樣的對手搶佔市場之際，蘋果當然不能置身事外。

Although Apple’s signature iTunes platform for video downloads is popular, carrying a wide selection of new movies and television shows, it doesn’t offer a subscription service along the lines of Netflix and is much more expensive. For example, a single season of a popular show can run $35 or more versus an $8.99 all-you-can-eat monthly pass to Netflix, which also allows you to watch other content. If Netflix’s subscriber base continues to grow as dramatically as it has, this can pose a threat to Apple, and so can the appeal of Netflix’s original programming (which iTunes carries, but at a hefty premium).

儘管蘋果特有的視頻下載平臺iTunes很受歡迎，而且能提供大量新電影和電視劇，但並沒有像Netflix一樣提供訂閱服務，而且價格高得多。舉例來說，在iTunes上，一季熱門電視劇的價格可能在35美元以上，而Netflix的包月價格才8.99美元，而且包月後用戶可在一個月內任意觀看各種內容。如果Netflix的用戶羣按現有速度急劇增長，可能會對蘋果造成威脅。Netflix原創劇對用戶的吸引力也是一大優勢（iTunes上也有這些節目，但加價甚高）。

True, if Apple acquired Netflix, it would cannibalize some of its iTunes business, but the alternative is to have that same business hijacked by an independent Netflix anyway. If consumers prefer Netflix, they have little, if any, reason to buy the same content on iTunes for a higher price; so right now those revenues simply go to Netflix. But by buying the company and controlling it, Apple could effectively cut those losses by ensuring that any content that is a big revenue-generator for iTunes is not replicated on Netflix. In this way, and also given that iTunes’ library is more comprehensive and current than the more uneven Netflix, the two services could easily be marketed as complementary to each other with iTunes’ competitive advantage being its wider selection and Netflix’s advantage being its lower priced subscription model and cutting edge series.

當然，如果蘋果收購了Netflix，部分業務會和iTunes重疊；但如果不收購，這部分生意也會被獨立的Netflix奪走，結果還是一樣。如果消費者更青睞Netflix，他們完全沒無理由花更多的錢在iTunes上購買同樣的節目。換句話說，目前這部分收入幾乎已經鑽進Netflix的錢袋了。而如果蘋果收購了Netflix並且擁有控制權，就可以有效止損，確保能賺錢的節目只在iTunes上可以購買，不會同時出現在Netflix上。此外，iTunes上的內容更廣泛也更流行，而Netflix的節目相對不穩定，二者完全可以在市場推廣方面互補。iTunes的賣點在於提供更多選擇，Netflix則側重低價訂閱模式和優質劇集。

There can also be marketing synergies between Netflix’s global subscriber base and Apple’s stable of technological products. New subscribers to Netflix could, say, receive a rebate on the latest iPad for signing up, or Apple could bundle a three-month subscription to Netflix with the purchase of Apple TV.

Netflix龐大的全球用戶規模與蘋果旗下產品也能形成協同營銷。比如說，Netflix的新用戶簽約後可以打折購買最新款iPad，蘋果也可以爲Apple TV機頂盒綁定三個月的Netflix服務。

That brings us to the means by which Apple could do an acquisition.

既然好處良多，接下來就要看看蘋果要怎樣收購Netflix。

With a market cap of more than $720 billion, Apple has $178 billion of cash on its balance sheet but is also trading close to its 5-year high, which makes its stock a strong currency for an acquisition. The technology giant could easily finance the buyout of Netflix, worth about $34.7 billion, with a mixture of cash and stock or even fully in stock. The key is that the relentless upward momentum of Apple’s own shares, not to mention its unprecedented success with new products, such as its smartwatch, would makes its stock an attractive form of payment for current Netflix shareholders

蘋果市值超過7200億美元，資產負債表上有1780億美元現金，接近五年來最高點的股價也讓蘋果股票成爲“收購硬通貨”。Netflix的市值約爲347億美元，這對蘋果來說不在話下，收購方式可以用股票加現金，甚至可以全股票收購。關鍵在於蘋果股票一直漲勢不減，智能手錶等新產品也獲得了空前的成功。對Netflix的現有股東來說，這些因素將使蘋果的股票成爲不錯的支付方式。只是蘋果的市盈率可能變成全股票收購的潛在障礙。按2015年預期每股收益和4月20日收盤價計算，蘋果的市盈率爲14.5倍，Netflix的市盈率爲176.8倍。低市盈率公司收購高市盈率公司往往會對前者產生攤薄效應，原因是對低市盈率公司來說，提高每股收益的效果將沒那麼明顯。不過，Netflix的規模遠小於蘋果，加上投資者看好Netflix的增長前景，可繼續提升蘋果的股價，這應該可以減輕攤薄效應的影響。

A possible hurdle to an all-stock deal would be Apple’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. Based on 2015 estimated earnings and its stock price on April 20, 2015, Apple’s ratio was 14.5 times versus 176.8 times for Netflix. When a company with a lower PE ratio buys a company with a higher ratio, the deal is usually dilutive for the acquirer since it gets less bang for each dollar of its own earnings. However, this can be mitigated by the much smaller size of Netflix compared to Apple, as well as the future boost for Apple shares because of investors’ bullishness about Netflix’s growth prospects.

換句話說，收購Netflix這樣深受投資者青睞的公司短期或許成本很高，但長期來看可以推動蘋果的股價上行。如果蘋果能好好利用Netflix龐大而且仍在增長的用戶羣，可以藉機提高自家產品的銷量。相應的，Netflix也能受益，因爲蘋果有出色的營銷能力，還有覆蓋全球的業務，特別是在中國等關鍵市場。蘋果充沛的現金也將令Netflix獲益。

In other words, acquiring an investor darling like Netflix might be expensive in the short haul but can boost Apple’s shares in the long term, especially if the company is successful at leveraging Netflix’s massive and growing user base to sell more Apple products. For its part, Netflix will certainly benefit from Apple’s exceptional marketing expertise, global reach, particularly in key markets, such as China. It would also benefit from access to cash on Apple’s balance sheet.

總之，蘋果收購Netflix是樁合理交易，不過蘋果得快點行動才行，以免真要收購時Netflix的規模變得太大，價格承擔不起。