Lex專欄 聯邦快遞收購TNT是否明智
When purple and orange paint are mixed, the result is an unremarkable brown. FedEx, the US delivery company with a “purple promise” to customers, announced on Tuesday that it would like to blend with the “orange spirit” of Netherlands-based TNT Express. The new company would challenge US rival UPS, known for its brown vans and uniforms, for the number two position among European delivery companies. TNT Express shares jumped more than 30 per cent.
如果把紫色與橙色顏料混合，得到的結果是不那麼起眼的棕色。對客戶秉承“紫色承諾”的美國快遞公司聯邦快遞(FedEx)週二宣佈，希望與總部位於荷蘭的“橙色精靈”TNT快遞(TNT Express)合併。合併後的新公司將挑戰美國競爭對手、以棕色貨車和制服聞名的聯合包裹(UPS)，角逐歐洲遞送市場的亞軍位置。TNT快遞股價飆升逾30%。
FedEx has bid 8 per share in cash for a company worth a tenth of its own $47bn market value. That works out to an enterprise value of more than nine times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. Though well above FedEx’s six times multiple, it sits in line with the average valuation for European logistic companies, and about the same as that of UPS. Given cheap financing, the deal will probably add to earnings per share immediately, even without accounting for cost cuts.
聯邦快遞對TNT快遞的現金收購出價爲每股8歐元，聯邦快遞市值爲470億美元，TNT的市值爲聯邦快遞的十分之一。這一出價相當於TNT的企業價值爲息稅折舊和攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的9倍多。儘管遠遠高於聯邦快遞的6倍，但符合歐洲物流公司的平均估值水平，而且與聯合包裹大致相同。鑑於融資成本較低，這筆交易將立即提高每股盈利，甚至在沒有計入成本削減的情況下。FedEx has confidence that it can get the deal past European competition authorities; it has offered a 200m break-up fee to TNT. Why? It has promised it will sell off TNT Express’s air cargo unit. FedEx already has plenty of capacity in air freight, while TNT Express has top share in European road haulage. UPS’s attempt to buy TNT Express three years ago failed due to European regulators’ fears that the combination would have emerged as the number one delivery company, well ahead of DHL. The FedEx-TNT Express combination would mean the three largest couriers would have roughly half the European market, with none having more than a fifth.
聯邦快遞相信這筆交易能夠獲得歐洲競爭部門的批准；該公司向TNT快遞提供了2億歐元的單方中止協議費，爲什麼？聯邦快遞承諾，將出售TNT快遞的航空貨運部門。聯邦快遞已擁有大量航空貨運能力，而TNT快遞在歐洲公路貨運領域佔有最高份額。3年前，聯合包裹曾試圖收購TNT快遞，但失敗了，因爲歐洲監管部門擔心，合併將誕生歐洲最大快遞公司，遠遠超過DHL。聯邦快遞與TNT快遞的合併將意味着，三大快遞公司將佔據歐洲快遞市場的大約半壁河山，而任何一家公司的市場份額都不會超過五分之一。
Given the euro’s weakness against the dollar, FedEx has decided the timing is right. But really it has bet on a strong European economic recovery pushing TNT’s ebitda back up towards its 2008 peak of 550m, about a third above this year’s estimates. Without an economic rebound, this deal might turn a dreary colour indeed.
鑑於歐元兌美元疲軟，聯邦快遞認爲收購時機是正確的。但實際上，該公司押注於歐洲經濟強勁復甦將推動TNT快遞的EBITDA回到2008年5.50億歐元的峯值水平，比今年的估計數字高出約三分之一。如果沒有出現經濟復甦，這筆交易真的可能會變成一個可怕的顏色。
