美聯儲預測下次經濟危機中銀行可能會損失4900億美元

America's biggest BAnks would lose $490 billion -- most of that due to bad loans -- over the next nine quarters in a worst-case scenario devised by the Federal Reserve.

美國最大的銀行們可能會損失4900億美元——主要原因是糟糕的債務——這是美聯儲對接下來九個季度最糟糕的預測。

Thankfully, the Fed does not expect that scary scenario to happen. But in an effort to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed is putting the big banks through stress tests.

幸運的是，美聯儲並不希望這個糟糕的情況出現。但爲了避免2008年金融危機重現，美聯儲正在對大型銀行進行壓力測試。

As jarring as the latest stress test results sound, the Fed said Thursday that banks deserve a lot of credit for boosting their capital levels and improving their financial health since the last crisis.

與壓力測試最終結果同樣引人注目的是，美聯儲週四說，自上次危機後，銀行努力提升了它們的資本金級別，並加強了自身的財務健康程度，值得讚揚。

The Fed tested 31 big banks (including U.S. subsidiaries of large foreign banks) for several severe hypo thetical economic scenarios.

美聯儲測試了31個大型銀行（包括大型國際銀行在美國的分行）在幾種嚴重假想經濟狀態下的表現。

In the Fed's most adverse case, which calls for an unemployment rate reaching 10%, home prices falling 2 5% and stock prices plunging 60%, the average tier 1 common capital ratio for these banks (one of the Fee •s metrics of bank health) would be 8.1% — significantly above the 5.5% level that they had in early 2009.

在美聯儲假定的最嚴重的狀況下(包括失業率達到10% ,房價下跌25%，股票價格下跌60%)，銀行的平均資本率(美聯儲的一種銀行健康指標)應該在8.1%;值得注意的是，2009年早期,資本率只略高於5.5%的。

"The largest U.S.-based bank holding companies continue to build their capital levels and to strengthen their ability to lend to households and businesses during a period marked by severe recession and financial market volatility," the Fed said in a statement.

美聯儲在陳述中寫道，"最大的美國銀行控制的公司們繼續提升它們的資本金級別，強化它們在這個被標記爲嚴重衰退和金融市場災難的時代提供家庭和商業貸款的能力。"

Unsurprisingly, the lion's share of the loan losses would likely fall to the nation's four largest consumer banks: Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).

不出意外的話，貸款損失最大的可能就是這四個國家最大的消費銀行：美國銀行（BAC），花旗銀行（C），摩根大通（JPM）和富國銀行（WFC）。

But all 31 banks did well on the stress test, which calls for banks to have a minimum capital ratio of 5% in the event that the bottom completely fell out of the job, housing and stock markets.

但是，所有31家銀行都在壓力測試中表現良好，測試要求銀行在就業，房屋和股票業務達到底部時，也能達到5%的資本率。

Regional bank Zions (ZION), which was the only bank to fall below this threshold test last year, topped it this time around ... albeit barely. It had a capital ratio of 5.1%.

Regional bank Zions (ZION)，去年唯一一個沒有通過測試的銀行，也通過了測試，雖然是勉強通過，它的資本率爲5.1%。

The bank with the highest capital ratio was the U.S. trust subsidiary of Germany's Deutsche Bank (DB). However, a Fed official noted in a conference call that the Fed only stress tested a small portion of Deutsche's overall U.S. operations.

擁有最高資本率的銀行是德意志銀行（DB）的美國分行。然而，一名美聯儲官員在一場會議中解釋道，美聯儲的壓力測試只包括德意志銀行的部分業務。

Next hurdle: This is the first of two rounds of stress tests. Next week, the Fed will indicate whether or not it approves of plans by the big banks to raise dividends and buy back stock.

下一個測試：這只是兩輪壓力測試的第一輪。下週，美聯儲將確定是否允許大型銀行提高股息紅利或回購股票。

That's the part of the test that Wall Street will be watching intently.

這纔是這次測試中華爾街專注的部分。

Keep an eye on Citigroup. Citi failed this second test last year and was not allowed to raise its divide nd as a result. Citi pays a dividend of just 4 cents a year.

注意下花旗銀行。花旗去年沒有通過第二輪測試,於是,被禁止提高股息紅利。花旗每股每年僅支付4美分。

Thursday's results appear to bode well for Citigroup. Its minimum capital ratio was 8.2% — above the le vels for BofA, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo as well as Wall Street giants Goldman Sachs (GS) and Mon n Stanley (MS).

週四的結果對花旗銀行來說是個好兆頭。它的最低爲8.2%;超過美國銀行,摩根大通銀行和富國銀行，也超過了華爾街巨頭高盛集團和摩根士丹利。

Several Wall Street analysts predicted before the tests that Citi should get the green light for a dividend hike and stock buyback program this year. If it doesn't, that could lead to questions about the job security of Citi CEO Michael Corbat.

在測試前，一些華爾街分析家預測，花旗今年將被允許提高股息和回購股票。如果沒有做到，花旗銀行CEO邁克爾科爾巴的飯碗可就難保了。