美聯儲 美國經濟下行風險增加

Many Federal Reserve policymakers said they saw increasing risks facing the US economy as they assessed the impact of the market turmoil that has erupted in 2016 amid plunging commodity prices and confusion over China’s currency policies.

美聯儲(Fed)多名政策制定者表示，他們認爲美國經濟面臨的風險日益增加。他們評估了在大宗商品價格暴跌以及各方對中國匯率政策感到困惑的背景下在2016年爆發的市場動盪的影響。

Minutes for the January meeting released yesterday showed that Fed policymakers were wary of rushing to premature conclusions about the implications of the month’s financial turbulence, but most agreed that the outlook had become more clouded and uncertain.

昨日發佈的1月會議紀要顯示，美聯儲政策制定者不願對該月金融動盪的影響倉促做出過早的結論，但大多數人同意，經濟前景已變得更爲陰雲密佈和不確定。

Several argued that it would be “prudent” to wait for more evidence about the underlying strength of the economy and inflation before embarking on any further interest-rate increases, according to the record of the meeting on January 26-27. If the slide in shares, strong dollar and tighter financing costs persisted, the effects “may be roughly equivalent to those from further firming in monetary policy,” the record showed.

1月26日至27日會議的紀要顯示，數名官員辯稱，在進一步加息前等待有更多證據表明經濟在根本層面的實力將是“審慎的”。記錄顯示，如果股市下跌、美元強勁和融資成本偏緊的狀況持續，影響“可能大致相當於貨幣政策進一步收緊”。

The minutes lift the lid on a committee struggling to understand the reasons for and implications of the adverse changes in financial conditions in the US, as well as the extent to which they could unsettle the Fed’s plans for higher rates. A number of policymakers argued the magnitude of the adverse financial developments was “difficult to reconcile” with information on the US economy, which has revealed steady job gains.

會議紀要揭示了美聯儲竭力試圖理解美國金融狀況出現負面變化的原因和潛在影響，以及這些變化可能影響美聯儲加息計劃的程度。多名政策制定者辯稱，負面金融動態的規模“很難匹配”關於美國經濟的信息，後者顯示就業穩步增長。

“Participants judged that the overall implication of these developments for the outlook for domestic economic activity was unclear, but they agreed that uncertainty had increased and many saw these developments as increasing the downside risks to the outlook,” the minutes showed.

紀要顯示：“與會人士判斷，這些動態對國內經濟活動前景的整體影響是不清晰的，但他們一致認爲不確定性上升，許多與會人士認爲，這些動態加大了經濟前景下行風險。”

The mood within the central bank has shifted in the face of the stock market gyrations and commodity price falls that have struck global markets this year. Whereas Janet Yellen in December hailed the Fed’s decision to lift rates by a quarter point as emblematic of the progress the US economy has made since the financial crisis, the central bank chair presented a more cautious picture to Congress last week.

面對今年衝擊全球市場的股市波動和大宗商品價格下跌，美聯儲內部情緒已經轉變。儘管美聯儲主席珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)去年12月將美聯儲加息25個基點的決定譽爲美國經濟自金融危機以來取得進展的標誌，但上週耶倫向國會描繪了一幅更爲謹慎的圖景。

She did not back away from signalling further rate increases, but nor did she do anything to indicate a move was imminent, arguing that financial conditions had recently become “less supportive” of US growth.

她沒有改變還會進一步加息的口風，但也沒有暗示即將加息，而是辯稱，近期金融狀況對美國經濟增長的“支持力度下降”。

That left intact market expectations that the Fed is set to do nothing with rates for many months to come. Traders see almost no chance of an increase on Wednesday, March 16, and indeed most are betting that the Fed stays on hold for all of 2016. China emerged as a particular worry, with a number of participants saying they were concerned about the “potential drag” on the US from the emerging market slowdown, even if cheaper energy costs could be a mitigating factor. Falling market-based inflation expectations also appeared to be spooking some officials.

這讓市場依然預期，美聯儲在今後幾個月不會對利率採取行動。交易員們認爲3月16日的議息會議幾乎不可能加息，的確，多數交易員押注美聯儲在整個2016年都會按兵不動。中國尤其令人擔憂，許多參會者表示，他們擔心新興市場經濟放緩對美國的“潛在拖累”，即便能源價格下跌可能成爲一個緩解因素。基於市場的通脹預期不斷下降，似乎也讓一些官員感到不安。