俄總統普京對抗西方國家制裁的經濟賬
A group of men sit in a Kamaz truck – one of those big Russian 4x4s that regularly wins the Dakar rally – speeding down a highway. Some of them sense that they are going the wrong way fast but nobody dares do anything.
一羣人坐着一輛卡瑪斯卡車（Kamaz，俄羅斯的一種大型四輪驅動卡車，經常在達喀爾拉力賽(Dakar Rally)上奪冠），在一條高速公路上急駛。車上有些人感到他們正朝着錯誤的方向疾馳，但誰也不敢有所動作。This graphic scenario is how the head of an oligarch-backed investment group close to the Kremlin describes the predicament in which Russia’s political and economic leadership finds itself.
一家接近克里姆林宮的、寡頭背景的投資集團的主管稱，上述這幅圖景符合俄政治與經濟領導層對自身目前所處困境的看法。
Since a Malaysia Airlines flight was downed in eastern Ukraine on July 17, killing all 298 people on board, things have gone very wrong, very fast for President Vladimir Putin of Russia. The belief in most western countries that a band of pro-Russian rebels shot the Boeing 777 down with a missile provided by Russia has transformed frustration at Moscow’s support for the insurgents into fury. Western media headlines are labelling the Russian leader a murderer and a pariah, and European governments are discussing new sanctions which, if implemented, could wreck the country’s economy.
7月17日，一架馬來西亞航空(Malaysia Airlines)客機在烏克蘭東部被擊落，機上298人全部遇難。對俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)來說，自那時起，形勢就朝着非常錯誤的方向急速發展。大多數西方國家相信，烏克蘭的一小撮親俄叛軍使用俄方提供的導彈擊落了那架波音777 (Boeing 777)客機。這種看法使得俄支持烏克蘭叛軍引發的失望轉變成了憤怒。西方媒體頭條爲普京貼上了殺人犯和社會棄兒的標籤。歐洲國家政府正在討論新的對俄製裁，倘若這些新制裁得以實施，可能會摧毀俄羅斯的經濟。
This dramatic turn of events is leading some observers to warn that Mr Putin, long viewed as a master tactician, has overplayed his hand this time. “Everyone just sits and watches the crazy things our government is doing,” says Roman Lokhov, chief executive of global markets and investment banking at BCS, the largest independent broker on the Moscow Stock Exchange.
事態的戲劇性變化促使一些觀察人士告誡普京說，他這次玩得有些太大了。長期以來，普京一直被視爲一位戰術大師。“每個人都只是坐在那裏，看着我們的政府在搞那些瘋狂的事情，”BCS全球市場與投行業務的首席執行官羅曼•洛霍夫(Roman Lokhov)表示。BCS是莫斯科證交所(Moscow Stock Exchange)最大的獨立經紀商。During his 14 years in power as both president and prime minister, Mr Putin has often gambled big and mostly won. He went to war with Georgia in 2008 but less than a year later the action was all but forgotten as the US decided to “reset” the bilateral relationship. He muscled Russia back into its global power position with his involvement in the Syria crisis. With a mixture of economic incentives and threats, he worked tirelessly to strengthen Russia’s influence over former Soviet republics – an endeavour that has hit a bump only now with Ukraine.
普京在作爲總統和總理掌權的14年裏經常展開豪賭，而且基本上都賭贏了。2008年，他發動了與格魯吉亞的戰爭，但過了還不到一年，那次行動就幾乎已被國際社會忘掉，美國也決定“重置”美俄雙邊關係。通過介入敘利亞危機，普京幫助俄羅斯強行重新躋身全球大國之列。他綜合運用經濟激勵和威脅，不知疲倦地致力於強化俄對前蘇聯加盟共和國的影響力——這一努力只是最近才碰了釘子，這個釘子就是烏克蘭。This year, Mr Putin appeared to have accomplished the biggest feat of all with the annexation of Crimea. Although a wave of western sanctions put further strain on Russia’s slowing economy, there is little likelihood of Moscow being forced to give the territory back to Ukraine. Mr Putin upped the ante by declaring Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine part of a wider “Russian world” that Moscow was prepared to defend, regardless of national borders.
今年，隨着俄羅斯吞併克里米亞，普京似乎完成了一項最大的壯舉。儘管西方的一波制裁讓正在放緩的俄羅斯經濟承受了更大的壓力，但俄被迫把克里米亞交還給烏克蘭的可能性微乎其微。普京還加大了賭注，稱烏克蘭東部講俄語的人羣是更廣泛的“俄羅斯世界”(Russian world)的一部分，俄政府準備保護這一世界，不管其具體屬於哪國。At home, this has been hugely successful. On the back of euphoria that Mr Putin has restored Russian pride and power, his popularity ratings have soared to close to a record 90 per cent, according to state-run VTsIOM and independent Levada, Russia’s biggest pollsters.
這樣做法在俄國內取得了巨大的成功。官方的全俄民意研究中心(VTsIOM)以及獨立的勒瓦達中心(Levada)的數據顯示，在普京恢復俄羅斯自豪感與影響力帶來的狂喜的支撐下，他的支持率大幅上升，逼近90%這一最高紀錄。The sentiment has allowed Mr Putin to divide and crush what remains of a shortlived rebellion by Moscow’s middle class against his increasingly autocratic rule in late 2011 and early 2012.
這種民意使得普京能夠分化並掃清一次短命反抗的殘餘影響——2010年末到2012年初，莫斯科中產階級曾站出來反抗普京專制色彩日漸濃厚的統治。Pavel Surikov, a German-educated interior designer who says he took part in the anti-Putin marches back then, no longer speaks to two former friends because they criticised Mr Putin’s Ukraine policy. “Ever since the Soviet Union fell apart, the US has been encroaching on Russia’s sphere of influence, and Ukraine is no exception,” he says. He rejects western media reports about the downing of MH17 as lies and propaganda and accuses the west of ignoring the plight of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine. “I know Putin has done a lot of bad things, but he is right on this one,” says Mr Surikov. “We are strong. And we will stand together no matter what they do to us.”
帕維爾•蘇里科夫(Pavel Surikov)是一名在德國受過教育的室內設計師，他說自己當時參加過反普京的遊行。但他現在不再理睬以前的兩位朋友了，因爲他們批評普京的烏克蘭政策。他說：“自蘇聯解體以來，美國一直在蠶食俄羅斯的勢力範圍，在烏克蘭也不例外。”他不相信西方媒體關於馬航MH17航班被擊落的報道，認爲那是謊言和宣傳攻勢，並指責西方罔顧烏克蘭東部講俄語人羣的困境。“我清楚普京做了很多壞事，但這件事他做對了，”蘇里科夫說，“我們很強大。無論他們怎麼對付我們，我們都將團結在一起。”But such beliefs might soon be put to a tough test, which observers believe could be Mr Putin’s undoing. They argue that economic decline could quickly deflate the nationalist euphoria fed by a relentless state media campaign. “You have to keep raising incomes,” says the Russian investment group executive. “There’s not a lot of historic precedent for containing an isolated system except North Korea. You can’t do it, not today.”
但這些信念可能很快就會面臨嚴峻考驗。觀察人士認爲，這次考驗可能成爲普京的滑鐵盧。他們辯稱，官方媒體無休止宣傳催生的民族主義狂喜，可能很快就將被經濟衰退所沖淡。“你得保住收入的增長勢頭，”上述那名俄羅斯投資集團的高管說，“除了朝鮮以外，歷史上並沒有多少先例告訴你如何掌控一套閉關鎖國的體制。你做不到這一點，現在這個時代做不到。”Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister and one of Mr Putin’s most trusted economic advisers, warned the president this week against going further down the path of hostility with the west, which he said was hurting business.
普京最信任的經濟顧問之一、俄羅斯前財長阿列克謝•庫德林(Alexei Kudrin)最近告誡普京稱，不要在對抗西方的道路上越走越遠。他說，那樣會傷害俄羅斯的商業利益。Igor Yurgens, a former Kremlin adviser close to Dmitry Medvedev, the prime minister, says there is a chance to repair things if Mr Putin acts now. “We can reset our relationship with the west. We will never be the same as Poland or the Czech Republic, but we could return to pragmatism and find reasonable terms with the west, as we have done before.”
與俄羅斯總理德米特里•梅德韋傑夫(Dmitry Medvedev)關係密切的前克里姆林宮顧問伊格爾•尤爾根斯(Igor Yurgens)說，如果普京現在採取行動，還有機會補救。“我們可以重置與西方的關係。我們絕不會變成波蘭或捷克那樣，但我們可以重回實用主義，與西方談妥合理的條件，就像我們以前所做的那樣。”Mr Putin does not like the choice with which he is confronted. When he addressed the nation on the downing of MH17 in a video message recorded in the early hours of Monday, he stepped nervously from one foot to the other, his face sweaty and rigid, his eyes blinking heavily and an eyebrow twitching.
普京不喜歡擺在他面前的選擇。在最近錄製的一段視頻中，普京就MH17航班被擊落一事向全國發表講話。視頻畫面顯示，他緊張地不停切換站立支撐腳，臉上冒汗，神情僵硬，頻繁眨眼，眉毛顫動。The threat is that he could lose the solid economic ground that has underpinned his hold on power for so long. Economists and executives believe that the latest US sanctions, which partly bar some Russian banks and energy companies from US capital markets, will hurt Russia’s economy. While broader punitive measures from the EU could throw it off the rails.
他面臨的威脅在於，可能會失去長期以來支撐他掌權的堅實經濟基礎。經濟學家和高管們認爲，美國最近推出的制裁措施——在一定程度上禁止某些俄羅斯銀行和能源企業進入美國資本市場——將對俄經濟構成傷害。而歐盟(EU)更全面的懲罰性措施，可能會使俄經濟脫軌。A total of $161bn in foreign debt owed by Russian banks and companies comes due over the next 12 months, according to the central bank. “Given the relatively strong fundamentals of Russian corporates, we believe that the external funding requirements are manageable, but would be at risk if sanctions continue to increase in degree and in duration,” Jacob Nell, chief Russia economist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note this week.
俄央行數據顯示，俄羅斯銀行和企業有總計1610億美元的外債將在未來12個月內到期。“考慮到俄羅斯企業相對強勁的基本面，我們認爲當前的外部融資需求是可控的，但如果制裁程度繼續加大、制裁時間繼續延長，外部融資需求將面臨風險，”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席俄羅斯經濟學家雅各布•內爾(Jacob Nell)上週在一份研究報告中表示。VTB24, the retail arm of Russia’s second-largest lender, cut back new loans to small businesses dramatically – “the first indicator of a general worsening of the situation with the economy”, Mikhail Zadornov, the state bank’s chairman, said on Wednesday. In the first half of the year, VTB24 gave out just 68.7bn roubles worth of new loans to small businesses, a drop of more than 20 per cent compared with the previous year.
俄羅斯第二大銀行的零售部門VTB24大幅削減了對小企業的新增貸款，這家國有銀行的董事長米哈伊爾•扎多爾諾夫(Mikhail Zadornov)上週三表示，“這是經濟狀況整體惡化的首個跡象”。今年上半年，VTB24僅向小企業新發放了價值687億盧布的貸款，同比減少逾20%。Economists say the growing squeeze will lead to a further decline in already anaemic investment. They also fear the rising pressures on the budget could lead to a smothering of consumer spending and exports which have kept the economy afloat so far. “The GDP growth forecasts range between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent for this year, but with these problems on the horizon, we could well be headed into negative territory,” says the representative of an international economic organisation in Moscow.
經濟學家表示，日益嚴重的資金吃緊將導致原本已經不足的投資進一步減少。他們還擔心，不斷上升的預算壓力可能會抑制消費支出和出口，而這兩者迄今爲止維繫了俄經濟的正常運行。“今年國內生產總值(GDP)預期增長0.5%至1%，但隨着這些問題的浮現，增長很可能變成負數，”一家國際經濟機構駐莫斯科的代表表示。. . .
……The kneejerk reaction of conservatives on Mr Putin’s team is to close ranks further and clam up. This week, government officials discussed resuming production of the Ilyushin 114, a small passenger aircraft, which ended two years ago. “It is a good time to make our own instead of getting a foreign one,” tweeted Dmitry Rogozin, the nationalist deputy prime minister who is in charge of the military-industrial complex.
普京班子裏保守派的本能反應是進一步提升凝聚力和閉關鎖國。上週，俄政府官員討論了恢復小型客機伊爾-114 (Ilyushin 114)的生產，該機型已於兩年前停產。“這是我們自主生產、停止向外國購買飛機的好機會，”持民族主義立場、主管軍工聯合體的俄副總理德米特里•羅戈津(Dmitry Rogozin)在Twitter上表示。Mr Nell predicts that under such economic pressures, the Russian government will loosen its budget discipline, suspend its currency liberalisation plans and turn towards a more static, protectionist economic policy.
內爾預測稱，在這樣的經濟壓力下，俄政府將放鬆預算紀律，暫停匯率自由化計劃，轉向更爲靜態、保護主義的經濟政策。Three people with knowledge of economic policy discussions said conservatives in favour of isolationist policies were gaining the upper hand amid accusations by western governments against Mr Putin and the threat of further sanctions. “It has become a lot easier to argue along the lines of, ‘let’s close the doors, we can do just fine without them’,” said one.
三名瞭解經濟政策討論的人士稱，在西方政府指責普京並威脅實施進一步制裁的背景下，傾向於孤立主義政策的保守派正佔據上風。其中一人表示：“現在提出‘關上大門，沒有他們我們做得也不錯’這樣的觀點，要遠比以前更容易得到認同。”Russian business, although very careful not to comment on politics, is terrified at that prospect. Many of the country’s large groups could be forced by more sanctions and an inward turn by Russia to sell overseas assets, reduce investment and rely mostly on government contracts. Smaller companies could be hit hardest in any credit crunch because they lack the political connections to soften the blow.
俄羅斯企業雖然非常小心地不去談論政治，但仍對這種前景感到恐懼。在更多制裁和俄羅斯變得更加鎖國的影響下，俄羅斯許多大企業可能會被迫出售海外資產、削減投資，主要依賴政府合同過活。萬一發生信貸緊縮，最受影響的可能是中小企業，因爲它們缺乏能夠緩解衝擊的政治人脈。Some western analysts argue, however, that Washington could be mistaken in its calculation that raising the pressure on Mr Putin will make him change course.
然而，一些西方分析人士辯稱，華盛頓方面的盤算可能是錯誤的，加大對普京施壓可能並不會使他改弦易轍。“Sanctions will be costly to Russia; there is no disputing that . . . But if the motivation is defence of vital national interests and survival, Russia – like any state – will resort to import substitution and even more radical sorts of interventions to defend itself, no matter what the cost,” Clifford Gaddy and Barry Ickes wrote in a paper for the Brookings Institution in May. “history tells us that Russians can endure enormous hardship. Coping and survival are part of Russian history and the Russian national identity.”
“制裁將給俄羅斯帶來沉重代價，這是毋庸置疑的……但如果動機是捍衛國家關鍵利益和謀求生存，那麼俄羅斯將像任何國家一樣，不惜代價地尋求用國貨來替代進口貨，甚至採取更爲激進的干預措施來保護自己。”克利福德•加迪(Clifford Gaddy)和巴里•伊克斯(Barry Ickes)今年5月在爲布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)撰寫的論文中寫道，“歷史告訴我們，俄羅斯人能夠忍受巨大的苦難。應對艱難和謀求生存是俄羅斯歷史和俄羅斯民族認同的一部分。”So far, Mr Putin is not showing his hand. At a national security council meeting this week, he said Russia was not facing a direct threat to its sovereignty right now – a remark widely interpreted as a signal that he does not want to step up the tension in eastern Ukraine.
迄今爲止，普京還沒有展露意圖。在上週的一次國家安全委員會會議上，他稱俄羅斯主權目前還未受到直接威脅，該言論被普遍解讀爲他無意升級烏克蘭東部的緊張局勢。But that will hardly be enough. With pro-Russian rebels having shot down two more Ukrainian military aircraft since the MH17 crash and no sign that Russian support has stopped, Mr Putin remains on a confrontation course.
但這遠遠不夠。MH17航班墜機後，烏克蘭親俄叛軍又擊落兩架烏克蘭軍機，而且沒有跡象顯示俄停止了對這些叛軍的支持，所以說，普京仍然在走對抗的道路。And he alone will decide whether there is a way out. Nobody in Mr Putin’s inner circle has the clout to challenge him, says the Russian executive. “Have you ever tried to jump in front of a speeding Kamaz truck?”
至於是否存在出路，則完全取決於普京一人。上述那名俄羅斯高管表示，普京的小圈子裏沒有任何人有實力對他構成挑戰。“你試過跳出來擋在疾馳的卡瑪斯卡車前嗎？”
