日學者指出日本將於1000年後滅亡大綱

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Japanese researchers on Friday unveiled a population clock that showed the nation's people could theoretically become extinct in 1,000 years because of declining birth rates.

Academics in the northern city of Sendai said that Japan's population of children aged up to 14, which now stands at 16.6 million, is shrinking at the rate of one every 100 seconds.

Their extrapolations pointed to a Japan with no children left within a millennium.

"If the rate of decline continues, we will be able to celebrate the Children's Day public holiday on May 5, 3011 as there will be one child," said Hiroshi Yoshida, an economics professor at Tohoku University.

"But 100 seconds later there will be no children left," he said. "The overall trend is towards extinction, which started in 1975 when Japan's fertility rate fell below two."

Yoshida said he created the population clock to encourage "urgent" discussion of the issue.

Another study released earlier this year showed Japan's population is expected to shrink to a third of its current 127.7 million over the next century.

Government projections show the birth rate will hit just 1.35 children per woman within 50 years, well below the replacement rate.

Meanwhile, life expectancy -- already one of the highest in the world -- is expected to rise from 86.39 years in 2010 to 90.93 years in 2060 for women and from 79.64 years to 84.19 years for men.

More than 20 percent of Japan's people are aged 65 or over, one of the highest proportions of elderly in the world.

Japan has very little immigration and any suggestion of opening the borders to young workers who could help plug the population gap provokes strong reactions among the public.

The greying population is a headache for policymakers who are faced with trying to ensure an ever-dwindling pool of workers can pay for a growing number of pensioners.

But for some Japanese companies the inverting of the traditional ageing pyramid provides commercial opportunities.

Unicharm said Friday that sales of its adult diapers had "slightly surpassed" those for babies in the financial year to March, for the first time since the company moved into the seniors market.日本研究人員上週五發布了一個人口倒計時鐘，該時鐘顯示，由於出生率持續下降，理論上日本人將於1000年後滅絕。

日本北部城市仙台的學者稱，日本14歲以下兒童人口目前爲1660萬，正在以每100秒1個的速度減少。

學者們的推斷指出，日本在1000年後將沒有兒童。

日本東北大學的經濟學教授吉田浩說：“按這種下降速度，到3011年5月5日我們將剩下一名兒童，仍能慶祝兒童節。”

他說：“但再過100秒，日本將沒有兒童。自從1975年日本生育率降到每名育齡婦女兩個孩子以內，走向滅絕便成了總體趨勢。”

吉田說他創立這一人口鐘是爲了鼓勵人們“緊急”開展關於這一問題的討論。

今年早些時候發佈的另一項研究顯示，下世紀日本人口將縮減到現有人口（1.277億）的三分之一。

政府預測顯示，50年內日本生育率將降至每名婦女1.35個小孩，大大低於人口替換率。

與此同時，日本已然是世界第一的人口壽命將進一步延長。日本女性的平均壽命將從2010年的86.39歲增加到2060年的90.93歲，而日本男性的壽命將從2010年的79.64歲增加到2060年的84.19歲。

超過20%的日本人年齡在65歲以上（含65歲），是世界上老年人口比例最大的國家之一。

日本的外來移民很少，向外國年輕工人開放邊境能幫助填補人口差距，但這種提議總是會激起民衆的強烈反應。

老齡化人口是讓決策者頭疼的事情，他們面臨着如何用不斷減少的勞動人口支付的養老金來養活越來越多的退休老人的問題。

然而，對一些日本公司而言，傳統老齡化金字塔結構的這一倒轉提供了商機。