“羊羣效應”引發團購熱潮？

We might like to think we're not influenced by other people, but a new study into the group-buying mechanisms - like those used on coupon sites such as Groupon and LivingSocial - reveals that telling buyers who come later to the offer how many have already signed up increases the number of purchasers。

Researchers at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management wanted to understand why group buying sites that have entered the market recently have enjoyed greater success than those operating a decade ago, such as Mercata and MobShop。

Earlier attempts typically left potential buyers waiting for days before confirming whether or not they had got the offer they had signed up for。

‘We think one of the reasons group-buying has been successful recently is because of the short time horizon,’ says Rotman Professor Ming Hu, who co-wrote the study with Professor Mengze Shi and PhD student Jiahua Wu. ‘It allows for a herding effect.’

Another reason is the use of an information structure that discloses to later arrivals how many have already signed onto the deal。

Researchers looked at two ways of designing the purchasing mechanism for a group buy: a simultaneous mechanism, where no one knows how many buyers have come before them, and a sequential mechanism, where a second group of buyers has the advantage of knowing the size of the first group。

The researchers' analytical model shows the most successful mechanism is the sequential one because it eliminates uncertainty for those coming later to the deal, and improves the confidence of those who sign on early, as they're able to track the numbers of those who come after them。

‘That boosts confidence,’ says Professor Hu, who teaches operations management. Deals for “luxury” services, versus everyday items, work better in a group buy scenario because they offer consumers a greater benefit。我們也許認爲我們不會受到他人的影響，但一項針對團購機制(正如Groupon和LivingSocial等團購網站的機制一樣)的研究表明，告訴後來的買家已經有多少人報名參加能夠增加購買者的人數。

多倫多大學羅特曼管理學院的研究人員想要知道爲什麼近期進入市場的團購網站比十年前的Mercata和MobShop等團購網站經營更成功。

團購網站過去總是讓潛在的買家在報名後等上好多天，才能確認是否能享受到折扣品。

羅特曼商學院的教授胡明(音)說：“我們認爲近期團購網站成功的原因之一是較短的時限。這就出現了羊羣效應。”他和石夢澤(音)教授以及博士生吳嘉華(音)共同撰寫了該研究報告。

另一個原因是使用了一種信息結構，讓後來者看到已經有多少人下單購買。

研究人員研究了設計團購機制的兩種方式，一種是同步機制，沒人知道之前有多少人來過；另一種是順序機制，第二撥買主能夠知曉第一撥買主的規模。

研究人員的分析模型顯示，第二種機制最成功，因爲這爲後來的買家消除了不確定性，並增進了先前買家的信心，因爲他們也可以看到隨後買家的數量。

胡教授說：“這增進了自信。”他教授運營管理課程。與日常商品相比，“奢華”服務類商品團購效果更好，因爲消費者能得到更大實惠。