特斯拉轟動預售的如意算盤

Tesla Motors has just stunned the carmaking world by taking 325,000 orders for its new Model 3 affordable electric vehicle within days of unveiling the prototype at its Los Angeles design studio. That is certainly an impressive performance — especially from a carmaker that has sold only 100,000 cars in its entire 13-year history.

特斯拉汽車(Tesla Motors)在其洛杉磯設計工作室亮相Model 3的原型之後的幾天裏，這款新的經濟實用型電動車便獲得了32.5萬份訂單，震撼汽車製造業。這種表現當然是令人欽佩的——尤其是對一家在其全部13年曆史中銷量僅達10萬輛的車企而言。

But, aside from demonstrating the interest that exists in Tesla’s undeniably glamorous electric vehicle technology, what precisely has the US company’s hard driving chief executive, Elon Musk, achieved?

但是，除了展示出特斯拉無疑光芒四射的電動汽車技術引發的興趣以外，這家美國公司強硬的首席執行官埃隆•馬斯克(Elon Musk)到底收穫了什麼？

Let’s start with what he hasn’t done, which is to strike a very firm contract with those interested parties. A glance at Tesla’s website shows the relatively loose commitment they have entered into: paying a $1,000 upfront deposit to guarantee a slot on a waiting list. But this is not binding, and can be cancelled if the would-be customer desires.

讓我們首先看看他沒有做什麼，那就是沒有跟相關各方簽訂一份板上釘釘的合同。瀏覽特斯拉公司網站可以看到，他們獲得了一項相對鬆散的承諾：提前支付1000元訂金，獲得排隊購買的資格。但是，這份協議沒有約束力，原本打算購買的人如果願意，也可以取消預訂。

Nor is there any fixed date by which Tesla must actually come up with a vehicle. While Mr Musk hopes to commence deliveries by the autumn of 2017, he doesn’t have to meet that deadline if the car is not ready. That, it should be noted, is a possibility. Tesla’s latest model — the Model X — was more than two years delayed.

特斯拉也沒有承諾，在哪個固定的日子必須得交付電動汽車。儘管馬斯克希望在2017年秋末之前開始交貨，但如果屆時汽車還沒造出來，他也不必非得趕上那個最後期限。應當指出，不能如期交貨的可能性是存在的。特斯拉現有的最新型號Model X就延遲了兩年多。

Even the final price is not fixed. Mr Musk may talk about a $35,000 vehicle, but he is too canny to pin himself down until he knows how much it will cost to produce one.

甚至最終售價也不是固定的。馬斯克可能談的是3.5萬美元一輛車，但他非常精明，在知道生產一臺車到底需要多少成本之前，他不可能把自己限定死。

That said, the customer’s main protection is Tesla’s own very public commitment to sell the base model at somewhere around this figure. Jack up the sticker price too much and the car’s “affordable” tag (and sales) will be lost.

即便如此，客戶擁有特斯拉自己的公開承諾作爲主要保障，這個承諾是：將以大概3.5萬美元的價格出售基礎型號。實際售價高出這個數字太多的話，這一車型就不能被稱爲“經濟實用型”，還會失去大量訂單。

What about using the reservations as a source of capital to complete the project? After all, it is not uncommon for companies to raise capital from would-be buyers.

那麼，特斯拉是不是將訂金作爲完成該項目的資金來源？畢竟，公司從可能的買家那裏籌集資金，是常見的做法。

Property developers, for instance, sell apartments “off plan” and use the proceeds to finance their construction. Then there are crowdfunding platforms, such as Kickstarter. Essentially, these allow people to pre-buy goods that they like the look of. Entrepreneurs then go out and see if they can be made profitably.

比如，地產開發商出售“樓花”，用所得資金來建造房屋。此外還有衆籌平臺，比如Kickstarter。本質上，這些平臺讓人們得以預先購買就概念而言符合他們喜好的產品。接着，創業者行動起來，看看能否實現概念產品的盈利性生產。

However, the problem with Tesla’s reservation system is that it does not deliver much of a capital injection. First, the $1,000 per head deposit is so small that it does not bring in much money. While $325m is not exactly loose change, it is a drop in the ocean when your capital expenditure requirements run to some $11bn over the next five years.

然而，特斯拉預訂製度的問題在於，它並不會帶來多大的資金注入。首先，每人1000美元的訂金太少了，總共不能帶來太多資金。儘管3.25億美元不是小錢，但對未來5年需要的大約110億美元的資本支出，仍是杯水車薪。

Second, the pre-orders are not just cancellable; the deposits that accompany them are also refundable. So the situation is more akin to the would-be customers granting Tesla an interest-free overdraft. Were the development phase to go badly, or prospective customers to lose enthusiasm, it is quite possible that a substantial chunk of that $325m could be yanked.

其次，不只是預訂單可以取消，按照預訂單繳納的訂金也是可以退還的。所以，這種情形更像是潛在客戶授予特斯拉一定的免息透支額。如果開發階段進展不順利，或者潛在客戶失去了熱情，那麼3.25億美元中的很大一部分很可能要退回去。

All it might take is a big glitch in the Model 3’s development, or the emergence of a sexier vehicle produced by one of Tesla’s rivals — say a General Motors or Toyota — which have now been alerted to the possibility of mass market electric car sales.

這一局面的出現，只需要Model 3的開發中出現重大失誤，或者特斯拉的對手之一——比如通用汽車(General Motors)或豐田(Toyota)——推出一款更吸引人的汽車。如今，特斯拉的對手們已注意到了大衆市場電動車銷量的潛力。

And even if it is delivered on time, the Model 3’s maths may not stack up for some buyers at the $35,000 base price. Some may be depending on federal subsidies worth $7,500 to buyers of electric vehicles. But these are cut back quite sharply after a manufacturer has produced more than 200,000 cars.

即便特斯拉按時交付，一些買家或許也會認爲以3.5萬美元的基礎價格購買Model 3不是很划算。有些人或許是因爲購買電動車可獲得7500美元的聯邦補貼才下的訂單。但是，當一家廠商的電動車產量超過20萬輛後，聯邦補貼會大幅降低。

Tesla will also face plenty of practical questions about building the Model 3. No one can be sure yet whether battery costs can be reduced sufficiently to make the car’s low price tag viable. Then there’s the question of whether Mr Musk can produce the vehicle in the sort of volumes that his now-groaning order book assumes.

特斯拉在製造Model 3方面也將面臨大量實際問題。誰也不確定，電池成本能否降到足夠低，使得這一車型能夠保持低價特色。此外，訂單目前在不斷增多，馬斯克能否實現那麼高的產量，也存在疑問。

But, no matter: that is not the point of what Tesla calls “the single biggest one week launch of any product ever”. Its real purpose was to create a stock market “event” to encourage investors to focus on the scale of the potential opportunity. With the company still spending heavily on capex, and unlikely to generate significant profits until after 2020, it is these people who must ultimately foot the bill to fulfil Mr Musk’s dream.

但這沒關係：Model 3的發佈意義不在這裏（特斯拉稱，Model 3的發佈是“任何產品有史以來單週預訂規模最大的一次發佈”）。這一發布的真實意圖，在於創建一個股市“事件”，鼓勵投資者關注這一潛在機會的規模。由於這家公司的資本支出仍很高，並且直到2020年之後才能產生顯著盈利，最終必須爲馬斯克實現夢想的費用買單的正是股市上的這些投資者。

Whether they continue to do so remains a question of faith rather than rational analysis. Tesla’s current market capitalisation of $32bn is almost three quarters that of General Motors, which produces 10m cars (including a competing electric car) against its annual 50,000.

他們是否會繼續這麼做，仍是關乎信念、而不是理性分析的問題。目前，特斯拉的市值爲320億美元，接近通用汽車的四分之三。通用汽車的年產量爲1000萬輛（包含一款與特斯拉構成競爭的電動車的產量），而特斯拉的年產量僅爲5萬輛。

Keeping that stock market spigot open will take not just excellent products and flawless execution in future. It will require all of the undoubted showman skills that Mr Musk has at his command.

若想在未來保持股市“水龍頭”的打開狀態，僅靠卓越的產品和無懈可擊的執行將是不夠的，還將需要馬斯克使出渾身解數展現精湛演技。