要有信心 年有理由樂觀大綱

In 2014, global output per head grew by close to 2 per cent, at purchasing power parity. Thus, at the end of the year, human beings were, on average, better off than ever before in their long history. This is also likely to be true at the end of 2015. Optimism is sensible.
2014年，以購買力平價計算，全球人均產出增長了近2%。也就是說，到2014年底，平均而言人們的生活水平比人類漫長曆史上的任何時期都要高。到了2015年底，情況恐怕也會如此。保持樂觀是有道理的。

Indeed, it is easy to imagine a far better performance in 2015 than in 2014. The most important reason is the collapse in oil prices, particularly since these higher prices are in large part due to enhanced supply. The International Monetary Fund argues that lower oil prices could raise world output by between 0.3 and 0.7 per cent in 2015.
事實上，不難想象，全球在2015年的表現會遠遠好於2014年。最重要的原因是油價暴跌，特別是這一下跌在很大程度上還是供給增加導致的。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)認爲，2015年，油價走低會令全球產出增長0.3%到0.7%。

With its healing from the financial crisis largely complete, the US economy looks particularly strong. The Federal Reserve may raise rates a little in 2015, but not much. With the federal budget deficit expected to be below 3 per cent of gross domestic product, further fiscal tightening is unneeded. Long-term interest rates on 10-year treasuries remain close to 2.2 per cent. In all, the opportunity for an acceleration in growth looks very good.
在美國基本實現從金融危機中復甦之際，美國經濟的表現看上去尤爲強勁。2015年，美聯儲(Fed)或許會略微上調利率，但不會上調太多。由於聯邦預算赤字預計將低於國內生產總值(GDP)的3%，美國沒有必要實行進一步的財政緊縮。10年期美國國債收益率保持在接近2.2%的水平。總體上說，美國經濟加速增長的可能性看起來很大。

The UK is unlikely to grow faster in 2015 than the 2.5 per cent expected in 2014. Yet, once, again, a good year seems to be in prospect. The eurozone, too, might at last surprise on the upside. The low long-term interest rates on government bonds and improved condition of the banking sector could well start to drive borrowing and spending. To this can be added the confidence generated by the European Central Bank’s belated realisation of the risks of deflation. While the eurozone’s structural difficulties remain, stronger demand looks probable. Meanwhile, the combination of extraordinary monetary activism, with Shinzo Abe’s electoral victory, should reinforce Japan’s recovery.
2015年，英國經濟增速不太可能超過2014年（預計爲2.5%）。不過，人們似乎可以再次期待一個好年景。歐元區最後可能也會給人們帶來驚喜。長期政府債券收益率處於低位，再加上銀行業狀況的改善，很可能會在2015年開始推動借貸和支出的增長。可能錦上添花的是，歐洲央行(ECB)終於認識到了通縮風險，這可能會提振市場的信心。儘管歐元區依然存在結構性問題，但需求走強的可能性是比較大的。與此同時，異乎尋常的激進貨幣措施，再加上安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的勝選，應該會令日本的復甦得到鞏固。

China confronts economic headwinds and reform challenges, but its government holds the policy levers it needs. It should manage to keep the economy growing robustly in 2015. India, meanwhile, should manage growth of at least 6 per cent. With radical reforms, its growth could be faster.
中國經濟遭遇逆境，中國自身還面臨諸多改革挑戰。不過，中國政府手中握有所需的政策工具。2015年，中國政府應該能夠確保中國經濟穩固增長。同時，印度應該能將增長速度維持在至少6%的水平。如果推行徹底改革，印度的增速可能還會更高。

The US, eurozone, Japan, UK, China and India account for just under 60 per cent of world gross product, at purchasing power parity. If they do well, the world economy is likely to do so as well. Yet obvious risks exist. Falling commodity prices will cause substantial stresses in commodity-dependent economies, among the most important of which is Russia. The financial sector’s direct and indirect exposure to these producers might prove far more dangerous than now seems likely. More generally, concern exists over the exposure of corporations in emerging economies to foreign currency borrowing. The dangers still seem manageable. But it is necessary to be alert.
以購買力平價計算，美國、歐元區、日本、英國、中國和印度佔全球生產總值的比例略低於60%。如果它們表現得不錯，全球經濟就很可能也會表現得不錯。不過，仍存在一些顯而易見的風險。不斷下跌的大宗商品價格將爲依賴大宗商品的經濟體帶來巨大壓力，這其中最重要的國家就是俄羅斯。事實可能會證明，金融業對大宗商品生產國的直接和間接敞口遠比現在看上去的更危險。更普遍而言，新興經濟體企業的外幣債務敞口也令人們擔心。目前，這些風險似乎依舊可控。不過，有必要對此保持警惕。

Geopolitics are also a worry. Will Vladimir Putin raise the stakes in his confrontation with the west, or fold? How will the Middle East or relations between China and its neighbours develop? Nor is it difficult to imagine economic risks that are linked to politics. Will the recession-hit economies of the eurozone abandon their programme of austerity and reform? Or will relations between Germany and the ECB break down more completely?
地緣政治也是個令人擔心的問題。弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)在與西方的對峙中是會加大賭注，還是會蓋牌認輸？中東局勢及中國與鄰國的關係會如何發展？同樣不難想見的是，與政治有關的經濟風險。受衰退打擊的歐元區經濟體是否會放棄緊縮計劃並開展改革？德國與歐洲央行的關係是否會破裂得更加徹底？

Still more fundamentally, rising global prosperity will continue to leave many people impoverished. While the proportion of the world’s population in extreme poverty is falling, the numbers continue to be enormous.
更基本的問題是，全球更加繁榮的同時，許多人仍將生活在貧困之中。儘管全球赤貧人口比例正在下降，但這部分人的數量依然很大。

Nevertheless, one must remember the good news. The open world economy has navigated huge crises. Much healing has by now occurred. Prosperity will also go on rising, quite probably at a faster rate than in 2014.
不過，我們也不要忘了好消息。開放的全球經濟已駛出了巨大的危機。到目前爲止，全球已在很大程度上實現復甦。全球經濟也會加速繁榮，其速度很可能會超過2014年。

Happy New Year.
新年快樂！