信不信由你：股市每逢雞年必漲大綱
歷史數據顯示，股市每逢雞年就飈紅，每逢蛇年必大跌，有圖有真相。不過過去如此不意味着現在和將來也如此，雞年股市必漲這一說法沒啥科學根據，各位股民也不要當真哦。
It’s a fact that some years of the Chinese zodiac are better than others for stock markets. And the Year of the Rooster is one of them. And as it happens, the rooster has in the past meant good things, for both Asian and US stock markets.
股市在某些中國生肖年行情比其他年份更好，這是事實。雞年就是股市鴻運年之一。碰巧的是，在過往的雞年中，亞洲和美國的股市行情都不錯。
The graph below shows that the year of the rooster has been the best year for Asian markets, by far.
下面這張圖表顯示出迄今爲止雞年是亞洲市場表現最好的年份。
Past years of the rooster have averaged returns of 52 percent. That’s 19 percentage points higher than the next closest year, the year of the rabbit. And it’s well above the average return of 13 percent a year. (All returns are total returns, and include dividends.)
過往雞年的平均回報率爲52%，比回報率僅次於雞年的兔年高19%，而且遠遠高出13%的平均年度回報率。（所有的回報率都按全部回報計算，包括紅利所得。）
As shown below, US markets, as measured by the S&P 500, also do very well during the Chinese year of the rooster. The S&P 500 has averaged a total return of 14 percent. That strong performance is behind only the year of the tiger, and the year of the pig, and is tied with the year of the rabbit.
如下圖所示，根據標準普爾500指數，美國股市在雞年的行情也不錯。標準普爾500指數顯示，美國股市在雞年的平均回報率是14%，強勁表現僅次於虎年和豬年，和兔年的表現持平。
As shown above, both Asian and US markets should be avoided during the year of the snake – Asian markets have on average been flat, and the S&P 500 has only returned 1 percent on average. The next year of the snake will be 2025, so there’s no need to worry about it for a while.
如上圖所示，應避免在蛇年涉足亞洲和美國股市，亞洲市場在蛇年平均來說表現平平，標準普爾500指數顯示美國股市在蛇年的平均回報率只有1%。下一個蛇年是2025年，所以暫時沒必要擔心。
There’s no scientific basis for the predictive powers of the Chinese zodiac. Just like there’s no basis for the January barometer, or the “sell in May and go away” trading rule (but they seem to work). And of course the past has no bearing on the present, but it can give investors some guidance.
用中國生肖預測股市並沒有什麼科學根據。同樣，“一月晴雨表”和“五月拋股離場”的交易規則也沒什麼根據，但它們似乎行得通。當然過去如何也不意味着現在就會如何，但多多少少能爲投資客提供一些指示。
“一月晴雨表”：標準普爾500指數在一月份的表現預示該年的市場表現。
