檸檬短缺影響甚重 從大數據看檸檬危機大綱

Americans may have had to enjoy Cinco de Mayo margaritas sans lime this year, but the widespread shortage of the citrus fruit may be a bit more fleeting than originally thought.
今年的五月五日節，美國人民喜愛的瑪格麗特酒裏可能將見不到檸檬片的身影了。但是大範圍的檸檬短缺持續的時間可能不會像很多人一開始想的那麼久。

As previously reported, the potent combination of severe weather in Mexico, the spread of the citrus-greening disease huanglongbing (HLB), and the extortion of lime farmers by drug cartels has made it pretty difficult to export the round, green fruit to the United States. The ripple was felt across Mexico's neighbor to the north as a vast majority (97%) of limes are imported from Mexico.
正如最近媒體所報道的，在墨西哥的極端天氣、檸檬黃龍病氾濫以及果農受販毒集團暴力洗劫等多重因素作用下，墨西哥的檸檬已然很難出口到美國。這對墨西哥的北方鄰居產生了重大影響，因爲美國有97%的檸檬都是從墨西哥進口的。

Prices have soared 400% over the last year, resulting in limes selling for upwards of $100 per 40-pound box, compared to the $15 to $20 cases just a year ago. The shortage is partly caused by heavy rain last season in central Mexico while another lime hub, Colima, experienced the spread of HLB. Florida has also reported cases of citrus greening while California is gripped by severe droughts, making it difficult to compensate on lime crops.
去年美國檸檬的價格飆升了400%，一箱40磅重的檸檬的價格已經上漲到了100美元，相比之下前年美國的檸檬價格每箱只有15到20美元。檸檬短缺的原因有一部分是因爲上年墨西哥中部地區的暴雨使收成損失慘重，而作爲另一個檸檬主要產區的科利馬州則遇到了黃龍病的肆虐。（黃龍病是影響全球柑桔類水果產量的主要病害）美國的佛羅里達州也發現了青果病的案例，而加利佛尼亞州又遭遇了嚴重的乾旱，難以彌補進口檸檬的不足。

Now, The Knights Templar, a drug cartel formerly part of the now-dismantled La Familia Michoacána, is reportedly threatening farmers in the lime-producing state of Michoacán. Turmoil and violence have swept the region as business owners, including lime farmers, rally together to fend off the drug cartel. Mexican government officials have deployed military to quell the fighting and are urging the vigilante groups to ceasefire by May 10.
與此同時，在墨西哥的檸檬產區米卻肯州境內，有一個叫做“聖殿騎士團”的販毒集團對果農們形成了很大威脅。“聖殿騎士團”原來是已被搗毀的販毒集團“米卻肯家族”的一支。在騷亂和暴力的逼迫下，當地的企業主包括果農紛紛走上街頭對販毒集團進行抗議示威。墨西哥政府已經部署軍隊鎮壓騷亂，並敦促民間武裝在5月10日前停火。

But a drug war aside, the lime crisis may not be as dire as we think. According to analysis by the data analytics group of the business software company SAP, the numbers tell a different story -- one that suggests that people are forgetting the seasonality of pricing. By crunching data from U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USDA) Market News, SAP found that prices are historically higher in the spring due to low production in the winter, which means a price drop is on the horizon -- and already beginning -- as production picks up this summer.
雖然毒販和槍戰聽起來很嚇人，但眼下這場檸檬危機卻可能並不像我們想象的那樣無解。根據企業軟件公司SAP的數據分析集團的分析顯示，人們可能忽略了價格的季節性波動。通過對美國食品和藥品監督管理局（USDA）發佈的市場信息的分析，SAP公司發現，由於冬季產量較低，檸檬的價格歷來在春季較高，這也就意味着隨着產量在夏季回升，檸檬的價格不久便會下降，而且現在這種勢頭已經開始了。

But Chicago restaurant and bar owner Mark Domitrovich says he's still paying more than $100 per case at the moment.
不過芝加哥的餐飲酒吧老闆馬克o多米特羅維奇表示，目前他要買一箱檸檬仍需花100美元以上的價格。

"The customer is a bit oblivious to the price hike so we haven't changed our procedures too much," the owner of Frontier, Lottie's Pub, and The Pony says. "We've made modifications to the size of the limes but we tend to just absorb the cost rather than trying to explain it to the customers."
多米特羅維奇表示：“顧客不太注意檸檬價格的走高，所以我們並沒有怎麼改變我們的備餐流程。我們對檸檬片的大小做了一些變化，不過我們只想自己把成本化解掉，而不是費力氣向顧客去解釋。”

Chicago restaurant veteran Ben Schiller says he's seen poorer quality in some of the limes at his restaurant The Berkshire Room, including limes that are smaller in size and lower juice content. But pricing continues to fluctuate, and he sees it more as a temporary blip than a long-term crisis.
在芝加哥餐飲業從業多年的本o席勒表示，他發現他的“伯克郡小屋”（Berkshire Room）餐廳買到的一些檸檬的質量大不如前了，不光尺寸小了，而且果汁含量也變低了。但是檸檬的價格仍在波動。不過他認爲這只是一時的困難，而不是一場長期危機。Schiller is one of many buyers taking the crisis in stride, holding out and only ordering as much as needed, according to a USDA Market News specialist who was granted anonymity because she was not authorized to speak publicly on behalf of her organization.
USDA《市場新聞》的一位匿名專家（因其未經該局官方授權代表該局表態）指出，目前許多像席勒這樣的餐飲業主對這場“檸檬危機”反應冷靜，只訂購必要數量的檸檬。

As much as we find limes irreplaceable -- sorry, lemons -- for items such as guacamole and the margarita, the food and beverage industry is getting creative with substitutes like pineapple and grapefruit until price hysteria subsides. Those actions have led to a significant decrease in demand, despite the headlines.
雖然檸檬是製作鱷梨色拉醬和瑪格麗塔酒時不可缺少的原料之一，但食品和飲料行業還是創造性地使用菠蘿和葡萄柚等水果當作檸檬的替代品，同時耐心等待這場檸檬危機過去。這種做法使得市場對檸檬的需求出現了顯著的下降——儘管許多媒體還在不厭其煩地炒作“檸檬危機”。

In other words, the story has completely changed from two weeks ago, the USDA market specialist tells Fortune. More shipments are crossing the border, and prices continue to drop each day, she says.
這位USDA的專家還表示，換句話說，目前市場的情況和兩週以前已經出現了根本的改觀。越來越多的檸檬正從邊境輸入美國，而且價格每天都在下降。

Typically lime prices in the summertime, the heaviest season, tend to be around $6 to $7 per crate. As of Wednesday, market experts say they've seen some of the lowest prices on limes since the price disruption began. Though Cinco de Mayo calls for an uptick in orders, demand is likely to waver after the holiday. But coupled with buyers tired of paying high prices means we may get to say farewell to lime austerity sooner than we thought.
一般來說，檸檬在夏天旺季的價格一般都在每箱6到7美元之間。有市場專家表示，自上週三起，他們發現有些地方的檸檬價格已經出現了“檸檬危機”以來的最低價。雖然五月五日節的到來可能將推高檸檬的訂單，但節後需求又將震盪下降。加上買家們已經厭倦了付高價，這可能意味着我們要比預想的提前跟檸檬危機說拜拜了。

But will prices return to last year's $15 to $20 per crate? Experts remain uncertain what normal will be following the hit the lime market has taken. But limes are not the only crop American consumers should worry about.
但是，檸檬價格會回落到去年的每箱15到20美元的價格嗎？專家們還不確定在這次危機後，檸檬市場將呈現什麼樣的態勢。但是檸檬並不是美國消費者唯一應該擔心的農作物。

Prices for all fruits and vegetables are expected to rise between 3.5 and 4.5 %, according to a recent USDA Market News report. In February, USA Today reported the highest average retail cost for beef on record since 1987, while pork was up 6.8% and poultry shot up 4.7% over the last year.
據USDA《市場新聞》報道，美國所有水果和蔬菜的價格預計將上漲3.5到4.5%。今年2月，《今日美國》（USA Today ）稱牛肉的零售價已升至1987年以來的最高點，同時豬肉價格上漲了6.8%，家禽價格也比去年同期上漲了4.7%。

Meanwhile, droughts in Brazil have resulted in higher prices and lower production of Arabica Coffee, the popular bean used in gourmet blends. Coffee prices have more than doubled since January as global demand grows, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
與此同時，巴西的持續乾旱已經導致阿拉伯咖啡的產量降低、價格升高，這種咖啡豆經常用在各種美食飲料裏。另據《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal ）報道，隨着全球需求上漲，咖啡價格自今年一月起已經翻了一番。

As the agriculture business continues to reel from severe weather, "normal" prices have yet to be determined. Nonetheless, you can expect to see the citrus staple reappear -- at (somewhat) normal prices -- this summer, just in time for an ice-cold Michelada.
由於農業持續遭受極端天氣的打擊，現在還不能確定“正常”價格會是什麼樣。但不論如何，今年夏天，檸檬將或多或少迴歸正常價格，正好來得及讓你調一杯冰涼解暑的米切拉達酒。