希拉里準備背水一戰 而非迎接加冕

Hillary Clinton is riding high in the betting for 2016, but this week was filled with reminders, if they were needed, that her dream of becomingAmerica's first female president cannot be accomplished without indignity.

Officially, Mrs Clinton is currently enjoying her first spell outside public life for 30 years, but in practice her undeclared campaign is already filling the vacuum left by an increasingly marginalised and irrelevant-looking second-term president.

While Barack Obama was off fundraising in California this week, it was Mrs Clinton who was drawing all the attention on cable news.

First, Monica Lewinsky broke her silence of a decade, writing inVanity Fairthat she found it "troubling" that, as she saw it, Mrs Clinton "blamed not only me, but herself", backhandedly raising questions about the former First Lady's moral and emotional judgment.

Then Republicans in Congress voted to form yet another panel to investigatethe handling of the Benghazi attacks in which two American diplomats and two CIA officers were killedtowards the end of Mrs Clinton's time at State.

Mrs Clinton, who is certain to be called to testify, has already described the Benghazi episode as her "biggest regret" while in office, and conservatives will waste no opportunity to remind voters of a security debacle they say the White House deliberately tried to whitewash.

Then there was Boko Haram. Mrs Clinton's tweet drawing attention to Nigeria's kidnapped schoolgirls under the hashtag "#BringBackOurGirls" was initially hailed as a demonstration of her global influence, with Michelle Obama and other influential people joining a spontaneous campaign.

But conservatives were soon rushing to the television studios to point out that Mrs Clinton had repeatedly declined to designate Boko Haram as a terrorist organization while she was Secretary of State. Yet another attempt to question her record.

Despite Republican protestations to the contrary, none of these attacks are even close to killer blows. They might play well with the party's Hillary-hating base, but the Lewinsky scandal is old news, Benghazi has become a partisan hobbyhorse and the Boko Haram "scandal" was actually a decision justified at the time by a perfectly reasonable desire not to internationalise a regional terror outfit.

All the same, they do point to the bare-knuckle nature of the fight that lies ahead. If Mrs Clinton decides to run for president she cannot expect to rise above the fray as she did while serving as Secretary of State.

On occasion recently Mrs Clinton displays a distinctly lofty tone. When she came out in favour of same-sex unions after leaving the State Department's Foggy Bottom headquarters, she equated equality for gay marriages to her own experience of her daughter Chelsea's marriage, adding with regal condescension that "I wish every parent that same joy".

It is not a tone that works well on the stump, and, as she demonstrated when flying off the handle during earlier Benghazi hearings, and in her nasty primary fight with Mr Obama in 2008, Mrs Clinton's record in televised debates is shaky.

She may have no serious challenger for the Democratic nomination this time - polls put her 50 points clear of Joe Biden, the vice president and her nearest rival - but the presidential race will always be close given the structural divisions of modern American politics.

Try as she might to differentiate herself, Mrs Clinton will also be running as a "third term" president, and unless he lifts his rock-bottom approval ratings, Mr Obama will leave her none of the foundation of popularity that Ronald Reagan bequeathed to George H W Bush, or Bill Clinton to Al Gore (who then squandered it).

If Republicans can find a fresh, plausible candidate ruthlessly focused on improving middle class lives rather than the Culture Wars, then Mrs Clinton will have to struggle to explain to voters why they should embrace what Republicans will tout as "four more years" (of failure).

Perhaps the twin novelties of being a "first woman president" and a "first First Lady to be president" will be sufficient to get her over the line, but she shouldn't bet on that.

All this might explain why "Team Hillary" says she has still not made up her mind to run. It was no more than a "a 50-50 proposition" aides toldPolitico this week, with one "confidant" questioning whether the 66-year-old, soon to be grandmother, wants to spend "the rest of her useful life" locked in a political dog-fight.

Such protestations sound plausible, until you stop to think about it.

This is a woman, after all, who has spent 30 unbroken years in public life - beginning as First Lady of Arkansas after Bill's re-election as governor in 1982, and then choosing to run for senate straight after her husband left the White House, and shortly after, for president.

A lifetime of drive and ambition is not so lightly put aside, which is why these maidenly protestations are almost certainly more about Mrs Clinton's brand management and avoiding the "inevitability" tag which hurt her against the upstart Mr Obama in 2008, than about serious second thoughts.

The smart money says Mrs Clinton will run but, for all her current pre-eminence, she should prepare for a dogfight, not a coronation tour.中國日報網5月12日電（劉小倩）據外媒報道，希拉里·克林頓2016年可能再次衝擊總統寶座，目前所獲支持一路高漲。但近來發生的事不斷提醒她，想實現成爲美國第一任女總統的夢想，必然會聽到各種各樣侮辱的聲音。

首先，莫尼卡·萊溫斯基（Monica Lewinsky）十多年來首次打破沉默，在《名利場》雜誌上說道，她感到很“困擾”，因爲她認爲希拉里“不僅責備我，也在自責”。這間接讓人們開始質疑這位前美國第一夫人的道德評判。

接着，國會中的共和黨人投票建立小組，調查希拉里任職快結束時對美駐班加西領館遭襲事件的處理。此次事件中兩名外交官和兩位美國中央情報局官員身亡。

希拉里將被傳喚作證，儘管她稱班加西遭襲事件是她就職期間“最大的遺憾”。保守黨自然不會放過這次機會，提醒選民們白宮極力想粉飾這次安全危機。

再接下來是伊斯蘭極端組織博科聖地（Boko Haram）。希拉里在推特上發表“把女孩帶回來”的呼籲，將人們的吸引力拉到尼日利亞被綁架的女學生身上，並和米歇爾·奧巴馬和其他有影響力的人蔘與一場活動。這被譽爲其全球影響的體現。

但是保守派很快跑到電視演播室，指出希拉里身爲國務卿，卻多次拒絕將博科聖地看做恐怖組織，再一次試圖質疑她的工作。

但這些攻擊都不足以造成致命一擊，最多造成“討厭希拉里”的氣氛。萊溫斯基是舊新聞，班加西遭襲事件也是兩黨老調重彈，而希拉里關於博科聖地的聲稱事實上事出有因，其合理理由是不想“將地區性恐怖組織國際化”。

不過，擺在面前的戰鬥是殘酷的。如果希拉里想角逐總統一職，她就不能指望像當時任國務卿時置身爭議之外。

最近，希拉里的表態讓人起敬。她離開國務院總部後表示支持同性婚姻，她將同性婚姻和自己女兒切爾西的婚姻同等看待，謙卑地說：“我希望所有父母能感受到同樣的快樂。”

這種態度在其巡迴競選演說中沒起多大作用，而且她在先前班加西事件聽證會上大發雷霆進行示威，加之2008年她與奧巴馬第一次競選時表現讓人討厭，希拉里的電視競選辯論紀錄並不盡如人意。

這次在民主黨的總統候選人提名中，希拉里沒有強大的挑戰者——調查顯示她的支持率爲50%，超過了其最接近的對手副總統拜登——不過基於美國政治的結構劃分，總統競選時各人的支持率總是不分上下。

儘管希拉里努力展示自己與衆不同，她還是要競選總統接替奧巴馬一職。而且，除非奧巴馬重振自己已經跌到谷底的支持率，他就無法像羅納德·里根向喬治·H·W·布什或比爾·克林頓向阿爾·戈爾（後者將支持率揮霍一空）那樣將民衆的支持贈給希拉里了。

如果共和黨人能重新找一個看似可信的候選人，此人下定決心提高中產階級生活水平，而非將注意力放在文化戰爭上，希拉里就不得不努力向選民解釋爲什麼他們得欣然接受共和黨人吹捧的“再來四年”（仍是失敗）的口號。

也許“首位女總統”和“首位當上總統的第一夫人”這兩個方面的新鮮事兒就足以讓希拉里勝利出線，但她不該在這上面下賭注。

所有這些解釋了爲什麼“希拉里團隊”表示她還沒決定參選。這個周她的一個助手告訴《政客日報》（Politico），大家對此的看法“一半對一半”，一個“密友”曾質疑，66歲的即將做祖母的希拉里將“剩下的有意義的生命”花在政治爭鬥中是否有必要。

如果仔細想想，你會發現這種聲明根本不可信。

畢竟，這個女人連續30年過着公共生活——1982年，比爾再次當選阿肯色州州長，她成爲阿肯色州第一夫人，之後，她丈夫離開白宮後，她立刻競選參議員，後來不久又競選總統。

一生的追求和雄心不可能輕易放棄，這就是爲什麼謹慎的聲明避免出現2008年與新貴奧巴馬競選時她"肯定當選"的言論，這種言論曾深深傷害了她。

知情人透漏希拉里一定會參選。儘管她目前形勢大好，她仍該準備背水一戰，而非加冕之旅。