如何計算市場收益率雙語

股市有漲也有跌。假設每年的股價不是50就是100，沒有上漲或下跌趨勢。那麼股市的資本回報率會有多大? 接下來，小編給大家準備瞭如何計算市場收益率雙語,歡迎大家參考與借鑑。

The stock market goes up and down. Suppose its level alternates each year between 50 and 100, with no upward or downward trend. What is the capital return on the market?

股市有漲也有跌。假設每年的股價不是50就是100，沒有上漲或下跌趨勢。那麼股市的資本回報率會有多大?

Common sense suggests the answer is zero. But is that common sense right? In the good years you obtain a return of 100 per cent. In the bad, the yield is minus 50 per cent. The average return is therefore 25 per cent. There is logic to that. If you invested the same amount every year, and sold at the end of a year, you would indeed make – on average – a very attractive return of 25 per cent a year.

根據常識，答案應該是零。但這一常識正確嗎?在景氣年份，你可以獲得100%的回報率;在不景氣年份，回報率則是負50%。因此平均收益率爲25%。這是符合邏輯的。如果你每年都拿同樣多的錢買股票，並在年末賣掉，那麼平均算下來，實際上你每年會獲得25%的回報率，這很有吸引力。

What if you bought and sold at random? In that case, four options are equally likely: buy and sell at 50, buy and sell at 100, buy at 50 and sell at 100, buy at 100 and sell at 50. The overall annual expected gain is 12.5 per cent.

如果你隨意買賣，結果又會如何?在這種情況下，有四種同等概率的可能性：買賣價格都是50，買賣價格都是100，50買入100賣出，100買入50賣出。總體上，年預期回報率爲12.5%。

If you are by now thoroughly confused, you are not alone. The average historic return on the volatile equity market is central to calculations of the cost of capital and provision for future pension liabilities. But the figure has been debated for decades. The dispute is less about the underlying data than about the way you make the calculation. The question is often framed as the choice between arithmetic and geometric means.

如果現在你已經完全暈了，也屬正常。波動性股市的平均歷史回報率，是計算資金成本和未來養老金負債撥備的重要數據。但人們就這一數據已經爭論了幾十年。爭論的焦點在於這一指標的計算方式，而不是原始數據。問題往往在於算數平均數和幾何平均數之間的選擇。

But there is no right or wrong answer. In all problems of this kind, the relevant measure is specific to the particular purpose you have in mind.

但這個問題沒有一個孰對孰錯的答案。在所有這類問題中，方法與你心中特定的目的對應。

The way we measure inflation is, in principle, straightforward too.

總體來看，我們計算通脹的方式也非常簡單。

You take an everyday basket of household goods and send a mystery shopper to discover what the bundle costs. Then you do the same thing a month later and find out how much the price of the basket has increased. You revise the composition of the basket regularly to introduce new goods and eliminate obsolete ones, and to respond to changes in the composition of spending.

你準備一籃子日常用品，然後讓一個神祕的購物者去弄清這籃用品的成本。一個月之後做同樣一件事，看看這籃用品的價格上漲了多少。你定期調整籃子裏面東西的構成，增加新產品，去掉過時的產品，根據消費構成的變化而變化。

But every month some of the goods are on special offer. Perhaps you can buy one bottle of shampoo and get one free. The price of shampoo has fallen by 50 per cent but you spend the same and get two bottles. Then the offer ends, and the price has risen by 100 per cent.

但每個月都有一些產品打特價。比如說洗髮水買一贈一，也就是說洗髮水的價格降低了50%，或者說用同樣的價格購買了兩瓶。當特價結束的時候，價格又上漲了100%。

If you spent the same on shampoo and conditioner, and then the price of shampoo fell by half, and the price of conditioner doubled, we would probably want to say that the cost of washing your hair has gone up.

如果洗髮水和護髮素的價格本來一樣，然後洗髮水的價格下降一半，護髮素的價格翻番，或許我們就可以說洗頭的成本上升了。

What happens in practice depends on the detail of the instructions to the mystery shopper and the frequency with which the relative weights of the components of the basket are reassessed.

實際情況取決於這位神祕購物者得到的詳細指令，以及籃子裏各物品相對權重重新調整的頻率。

　　擴展：與月亮有關的詞彙

aim [level] at the moon 想入非非, 野心太大

as changeable as the moon 象月亮一樣善變; 反覆無常

bark [bay] at the moon [bay the moon] 空嚷嚷;徒勞; 枉費心機

below [under] the moon 月下的;塵世的

boast1 above [beyond] the moon 捧上天, 海闊天空地吹牛

moon away 虛度時光

over the moon 欣喜若狂

moon-faced 圓臉的

moonhead 笨蛋;傻瓜

moonstruck 發狂的, 神經錯亂的

cast beyond the moon 癡心妄想; 胡亂猜測, 想入非非

cover oneself with the moon 露宿(指流浪漢與失業者)

cry [ask, wish] for the moon 異想天開, 想做辦不到的事情, 想要得不到的東西

(make) believe [think] that the moon is made of green cheese (要人)相信最荒.唐的事;愚蠢到極點, 愚弄人